Yes, but will it stop the spreading rot?
by
revrick
07/04/2007, 1:26 PM #
So, Bear Stearns bailed out its own hedge funds. As I gather it from Gross' article, they took money from pile 'A' and put it into pile 'B.' In and of itself, I'd be inclined to say, so what?
But the troubles in the housing market aren't limited to the agony of those who took out subprime loans not to those who are getting whacked for having lended it to them. And I just don't mean the effects of tightening loan standards and higher interest rates are having on those who are entering the housing market.
The impact is now being felt most acutely in working-class neighborhoods in Detroit and Philadelphia. But will it stop there?
Sales of existing homes are down 25% from a year ago. That's a Depression-sized drop! And it rachets up every step of the liine. Since most home-buying activity is in the existing home market, where new buyers generally begin with the lower-priced starter, which enables those former owners to leverage their equity into a 'better' home, and so on, up the price scale, failure at the bottom will choke off activity at the top. This has ominous implications for the economy as a whole.
After all, how much of the past six years of economic activity can be attributed to new home construction and all the ancilliary business that goes along with it?
The expansion of suburbia leads to the inevitable laying of new roads, construction of strip malls, proliferation of Starbucks, sales of cars and trucks, manufacturing of furniture and appliances, bank loans and a myriad of other things.
Our economy is like the proverbial hamster in a wheel, running as hard as it can to stay in place. Now, a key part of that mechanism has wrenched short. So, what's next?