Hillary is snuffing out his candle now. He will be nothing when the convention is finished. Obama needs to make a bold move and go Indie with a centre coalition team.

A Clinton-Obama ticket may win November, but Obama would be a fool. He will have a better career in the Senate.

Obama will gain nothing by playing out an old Party game. He cannot win now, as she has the core Party constituencies and his "independent" supporters recognise the momentum is gone and they have no interest in tired Democratic politics.

Obama does not need the Democratic Party, which is a relic from the last century's social battles, which are irrelevant when the US is on the road to becoming a 21st century Brazil.

Hillary needs to bow out. Obama has the legitimate delegate lead even if Florida and Michigan were to vote again, Hillary couldn't recapture the delegate count. She'd only win with the help of a major wave of superdelegates coming to her rescue. Obama's candle isn't out. Obama as an independent? What are you talking about? Are you suggesting Obama abandons his party so that he can split the vote with Hillary and Nader in the general election? Madness. Obama would forever be demonized in American politics. Worse yet, John McCain would come in and start a war with Iran.

>>Michael. A demonised Obama would be a risk. Nader would be irrelevant. Nonetheless, Hillary will finish Obama off with the super delegates and the binding Democratic Party network of which Obama is not really a part of. His base is under-30s and smart independents. Blacks are a vulnerable base, as they were hesitant to sign on and now Hillary/Bill/Jesse/Al will bring them back "home".

Lugar and Hagel are reported to be open to Obama (or were last week). McCain's support is vulnerable on his age.

Did Obama get this far on the Democratic Party? Will labour, Hispanics and Blacks feel betrayed/cheated? Many loud ones will, but I suspect their hardcore Dem numbers are less than thought. Women over 30 will stick with Clinton, but I think his under-30, wired, pro-trade, and financially savvy backers still want him and may think better if he is free from the various fringe elements of the Democratic Party.

He will not win at the convention. Watch the interview with Senator Webb on the BBC yesterday. He made it clear he was thinking of moving back to Clinton when it was thought he was with Obama. Watch Nancy Pelosi. CA went for Clinton and she will stand next to her from here to the ballot.

Lastly, the Clintons' media is smiling and saying how much fun it will be to have a healthy fight to the convention finish. This is a seductive trap. Obama supporters will not go with Hillary. They will just quietly not vote in November.

I am distant from the noise, but I do not buy that Clinton would be Obama's number 2 or campaign nicely in the months ahead. Obama will lose much of what he has gained, and for whom?

It would take big balls to make it happen, and I have seen no sign that he thinks he has a choice. His unique ideas and approach would still stand out in a three-way and Hillary's campaign would not be cooking with gas. They need Obama to fuel their way to the convention and then into November.

McCain can be Clinton.

Hello, crackhead Euro! Obama raised 55 million to Hillary's 35 million in February. He's getting his money from far far more people.

In ohio, Hillary picked closed the gap by 10. She can only close the gap by 20 TOPS in pennslyvania. But on May 6 Obama will gain all he's loses in Pennslyvania and then some. Indiana will give him +10 minimum, and North Carolina +20 minimum.

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Since Hillary will only close the gap by 20 tops, Obama will maintain a lead of more than 80. He can't lose.

Unless, of course, he follows your dumbass advice and goes indie, which will hand a victory to the republicans by splitting the dem vote.

"I am distant from the noise"

You're "distant from" Earth.

What Obama needs is to change the very nature of the Democratic Party. Both parties are stale and irrelevant, both are surely headed for re-definition -- but they are deeply entrenched. It is all but impossible to be elected outside of one of the two party structures.

Obama had a unique advantage. It was rooted in the Democrativ Party. For awhile it looked as though he could silence the whiners and screamers in the party and form a new mandate. On Tuesday, the demographics of the turnout combined with the legendary manipulation of the party by the Clintons for purposes that only they know confirmed that the Party has not changed. Glorious rhetoric was for the First Act. This Second Act is not the one written; it reads like that of pervious unsuccessful Democratic candidates.

Obama could not afford the Democratic Party baggage. Despite serious misgivings amongst many core brains on the Cambridge side of his team, it seems Obama's instincts are to try to bring the whiners and screamers onto his side before returning to the ideas that nearly inspired a new age in US politics.

As the American philosopher Yogi Berra said, it ain't over till it's over.

Barack Obama still has a comfortable lead in pledged delegates. Unless Hillary Clinton can win the remaining contests by landslides, Obama will have his chance to usher in a new age in US politics.

Obama '08!