Senator McCain seems to have a lock on the Republican nomination. The Democratic race is leaning Obama, but Team Clinton has a long record of coming from behind (no pun intended). If dirt is to be dug up and thrown, Bilary and Co. will be shoveling fast and hard. So, McCain vs. Whom? If McCain does win, what happens to Pax Americana?

McCain spoke of “future wars.” He has not been well challenged on what he meant by this. Is he contemplating strong action against Iran? It is possible. Iran is currently a threat to American interests, but not so much so that President Bush believes that further military aggression in the region is prudent or necessary. What does Senator McCain think?

McCain and his people know that McCain will run most strongly as the experienced war hero in an environment where war and security are open questions. Neither HRC or Obama will have much of a chance if America’s interests are openly threatened. Further, McCain has shown a deep and abiding angry streak. If elected in a time of clear and present danger, McCain may not act with the coolest head.

It is not in Iran’s best interest to have a President McCain, but the Iranian theocracy is one that is willing to take risks, and play for the highest stakes. (Ironic. The Qur’an prohibits gambling.) The next NIE may well correct the dubious assumptions of the current report. Admittedly, these are all hypothetical factors for future military engagement. But let’s take this one step further. Iran does pursue and build a nuclear facility. This will threaten an already unstable region. Israel has made its intentions clear: they will not stand for a nuclear Iran. Other neighbors in the region will not sleep comfortably. They send smoke signals. What does McCain do?

McCain, learning from Pare` Bush: build coalitions; and from Bush 43: make sure you have the military wherewithal to finish what you start, might form a coalition of multinationals who have an interest in a “democratic” and “free” Iran. (Countries, like individuals, will act in their perceived best interest.) This coalition could certainly involve many Middle Eastern countries, as long as Israel sits on its hands. France’s leaders, and possibly its interests, are now more aligned with ours. Russia will probably continue to play an obstructionist role, but that would not be sufficient to blocking coalition building. Again, this is just spitballing, but a certain senator was heard singing, “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran.”

Hypothetical, yes, but hypothetical situations, like the Kobayashi Maru are best thought through before anyone starts bomb, bomb, bombing.