There is one factor in this cogent analysis that might be factored into the equation. Of the casualties in Iraq, what percentage are from Catholic families as compared to the nation as a whole. I would expect that Catholics and Evangelicals are probably over represented. I have a niece whose son is serving his second tour in Iraq.

But beyond that, there is going to be an issue as to what extent the Bishops will elevate the anti-choice, anti-stem cell aspects of the "Right to Life" issue to preeminence. Led by this Pope, it seems to me that a will they replicate the intrusions into the Kerry campaign that may have helped tipped the scales to Bush in 2004? Accepting the numbers from the article (and putting the aside the still open question of how much pressure was exerted by the thumb on the scale of computerized voting) the Catholic shift demonstrated from 2000 to 2004 may have been decisive. CF Ohio,

But Kerry was Catholic, and Obama can not be denied communion. The drama of the Kerry communion denial in 2004 may have helped tip the swing away from Gore - who was also not Catholic. The bottom line may well be that Kerry's Catholicism validated attacks against him by the Bishops.

Stem cell research may be a wedge issue for many Catholics from the Bishops. Obama (or Clinton) should really push McCain to the wall. Parkinsons and other diseases for which stem cell research is a paramount tool, is non-sectarian. Anecdotally, I know of at least one Catholic couple where the wife is battling Parkinsons. I think an open attack on Obama would fall on death ears.

The irony is this: Obama, not being Catholic has a better chance than a Catholic candidate would in swatting aside the intrusions of the pesky Bishops. There ought to be a lesson for that for the Church. But the Catholic episcopate doesn’t like to learn, only teach, even if the choir keeps getting smaller.

johnklotz@johnklotz.blogspot.c­om