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Prediction Based on Tonight
by mcgeorge
+1 Reply
I believe after tonight's show (and wasn't it a sweet week for all things Super?), that I would have to predict Obama getting the nod for 2 main reasons...

1) Obama is going to kill in February. All of the substantial states this month are lined up behind him. Clinton will be lucky to pull two away. They're not huge in the delegate department, but that's a solid month of "Obama wins" and "Obama surges" and "Obama picks up another endorsement". With a $20 million fundraising deficit (though I think Clinton will make up serious ground in this area after tonight) she's going to have to cherry pick her spots, losing out on a lot of free media. So, a good four weeks until it's back to the big states, where I believe Clinton will win 2 out of 3. But by then, I think it's too late beacuse...

2) This nomination is going to be decided by the Super Delegates. Both candidates are going to slug it out to the nomination because they'll have the delegate numbers to make it viable. And when the insider-y SDs are given the opportunity to put the nom in one of their hands, I believe they'll lean to Obama. He matches up to McCain better than Clinton and he puts the Republican base in deeper disarray because they won't be as energized as with Hillary. Their positions aren't that different, and supporters of each candidate will translate fairly easily to the other if they get the nom, but I think they translate moreso from Clinton to Obama, instead of vice versa. The SDs know all of this, and they will vote in a way that sets them up for the general election.

So my prediction is Obama taking the lead this month, Hillary comes back with more big-state wins, and Obama gets the nod in June.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by pwoxby

There is another factor that shows that the Clinton camp is running scared. It is Hillary Clinton who is challenging Barack Obama to more debates. Front-runners don't challenge also-rans unless they have something to worry about. Time is on Barack Obama's side and Clinton knows this.

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by pham
I feel that this years voting is tight. But on the other hand I dont think alot of the people voting for Barack even know what there voting for.It's seems to have turned in to a huge racial race. That upsets me and alot of other voters I know. Also it's been said that Barack has been known to help in section eight fund raisers in the past and then take money out of it to help him self in the running when he was going for senator. His knowledge to where he stands over all is limited. So many millions have collage degres big deal. Half the time he speaks about making comunities better he talks about how he can relate growing up because of his race.Big deal can he actually show that he can do anything other then being good at fundrasiers hes made no real actions other then speaking. Unlike like Clinton shes been going for change befor Obama even got an board. I hope alot of young voters look into what there voting for.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by keven
I don't think Clinton is running scared she knows what shes doing. Clinton is calling him out simply because people need to know what there actually looking at when there going to vote. Barack goes on and on about what changes he trying to make and if you actually listen to what hes saying it sad because his plans and goals for health care is no diffrent then it already is. So is he going have insurance companies lowere there cost like car insurance. Barack is far behind in his knowledge to becoming president let's face it! He has the votes he has now only because of black voters that has never even voted befor. Thats why Clinton has older voters that have voted in the past and are paying attention to what there voting for. Barack likes to sound like he has been there but Clinton has been there especially when it comes to imigration. Way befor Barack could even walk.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by hommesuisse

Obama runs the risk of having peaked this week. His video topped the charts and the fans want a new song. The Clinton girls are already on television saying they want a president and not a superstar.

He needs to get on message. He needs to demonstrate his clear edge on policy, which is based on his own quick analytic skills and good gut instincts. He needs to step off the black stage.

Hispanics need to hear what he thinks of Cuba and Chavez. He needs to expose the duplicity of the Clintons in their Faustian deals with the CAF in Miami.

Obama needs to bring his team forward.

Otherwise, if he fails at the convention, men will leave Hillary for McCain, who will then win. I would then place a bet that the next Admin will be McCain with Rice as VP and Lieberman as Secretary of State.

On this side, we would not welcome either the above scenario or a Clinton policy-by-PR-agency approach. We are hoping to see some of the brains of the brain trust that is long invested in Obama.

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by momnet427
I don't want to sound ignerant , but my reasoning behind staying with Mrs clinton, Is the main fact that Obama will not salute our flag... Our sign of liberty and freedom. Since when do the people want a person who is not proud of our country to run it? To me that is what that is saying.If you cant or wont salute our flag, you should not be running for office. And to see how many people he is winning over by his words is just ridiculous... words are just that.. Actions speak much louder than words. and all his actions to date show me is that he is ashamed of the american flag.I understand it his religion that will not allow him to salute our flag but come on. That to me is a sign of charactor.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by hommesuisse

I am not aware of the flag-salute issue, and I would not have expected his United Church of Christ to ban a salute.

The US is in the global world it has laid claim to. Obsessive flag salutes seem off the mark today, and your right-wing's behaviour should give one pause.

As a European born long after WWII and Hitler, flag salutes are very bad form here.

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by wchess
I was really impressed with the showing that Sen Clinton had last night. This goes to show that with all the endorsements that obama had she still out classed him. She truly should be the next president of the United States of America.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by DaveG73
I think that it's brilliant that Hillary challenges Obama to more debates! He's screaming CHANGE but, don't you wonder what he means by it? How he's going to go about it? If he really knows how to change things? I want to know before I go jumping on his band wagon. I think if people are really that educated"like they claim his votees to be" then, I would see it as a welcomed thing. Do you actually think "if" he gets the nomination, that he'll just walk right into the White House un-tested? This is brilliant on Hillary's part if his educated following is actually paying attention. She gets to expose his weekness of no experience. And if you think she makes the race a little nasty, then wait until the Republicans lay into him. They will thrash him!!! Face it, the only reason people are showing any real interest in him is because it seems like the "Hip" thing-to-do! Sounds great until we have another un-experienced President in office.
Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by Steve Mac

YOu're giving the SDs too much credit. They have two main drivers. They react to pressure and perceived self interest. Clinton has more early commitments and don't underestimate the pressure the Clinton's can bear on someone for their vote. People might want Obama, but the SDs won't see through the Clinton's pressure to get them to vote for "that guy" wink wink...

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by Lorney

I totally agree with you on the fact that Hillary Clinton challanges Obama. He always screams and words come out of his mouth but put your money where your mouth is. I just don't get the American people that are for him when he refuses to acknowledge the American Flag. This is our country and we should all be proud of it and even though we don't like the war going on we have to support our troops. They are wearing our American Flag colors as they fight and die with these colors either on their back or on there coffin. This is America!!! We have to keep our heads up and realize this country has suffered enough with the terrible politics that has been displayed by our President. Another thing is that I read previously someone wrote that the wealthy has Obamas votes. Look around people. Its time we have a president that is not just for the wealthy but for the everyday common hard working person. We bust our butts every day to make ends meat and we need someone that is for the middle class as well. She is an experienced candidate and thats what this country needs. Someone who cares about everyone.

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by Rhiannon

mcgeorge

what happens in June?

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by Rhiannon

As a democrat who likes both of the candidates and just does not want another 4 years of republicans, i think the best team to come out of the Democratic Convention in August would be Clinton (experience) as Pres and Obama (change and youth) as VP. Then NO

republican combination can win......

Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by mrsjones

Unfortunately, you do sound ignorant. This isn't even true. Check your facts by using reliable sources before you attempt to pass on information.

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Re: Prediction Based on Tonight
by x1soundgarden1x

Momnet I know you received this stupid e-mail saying Obama is a muslim and doesn't salute the flag. Maybe you should spend more than 10 seconds actually researching a candidate. This e-mail has been PROVEN to be FALSE.

Obama is a Christian that has attended the same church for over 25 years. Obama salutes the flag all the time and has lead the pledge of allegiance on the Senate floor.


Read these links from news organizations that show this e-mail for what it is, hateful scare tactics used by anti-Obama groups. Stop promoting this bull(^*&#.:

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