The problem conservatives this year is the classic one -- you can't beat somebody with nobody. Sorry, Mitt Romney's campaign was a sick joke from the gitgo. When a man starts his campaign by repudiating virtually everything he stood for less than ten years ago, nobody takes him seriously because they know the opposition will make hash of him in the general election.

The only reason Romney has lasted even this long is that the right could never come up with an alternative. Huckabee, of course, couldn't possibly win in the general and his populist campaigning turned the right off anyhow. Fred Thompson -- I mean, let's get real, folks. The man was barely in politics when he was a Senator and was out of politics for over a decade. That he was ever considered at all is a symptom of the problem.

The guy I THOUGHT the right would coalesce around was Giuliani. He had built up a nice myth on which to run -- America's mayor. He outdid himself in pandering to the tax cut wing and his foreign policy was even loopier than Bush's. But, like Romney, he had won elections in places which are out of step with the right and had had to adopt positions which they have vocally opposed for years.

In the end, John McCain won because he was the only guy who didn't have to twist himself into a pretzel in order to assemble a coalition, and he was obviously the Republican most likely to win in November.

Tell you the truth, McCain's biggest problem isn't Limbaugh and the anti-tax right. The current recession, which will still be with us in the fall, has completely discredited the anti-tax position. Bush cut taxes and the Fed cut interest rates to the bone TWICE and the markets will close on Election Day essentially where they were when Bush took office. Grover Norquist will be the best argument for a Democratic victory one can imagine. In fact, Norquist and Limbaugh may attack McCain because it would probably help him more than hurt him with moderate voters.

McCain's real problem is the Huckabee voters. They will see his nomination as the final repudiation of everything they brought to the dance in the Republican Party. They won't vote for Hillary but if the right thinks they are going to rally behind McCain, they're drunk. The only serious question is whether or not their defection will be enough for the Democrats to win any new states -- as they must. Arkansas will definitely be in play, of course, and they'll miss the evangelicals in the Florida panhandle. It's hard to see what other states might be lost, but those two plus Ohio, which is ALREADY in a recession, might be enough to elect a Democrat in November even with the defection of a blue state or two.

It may be true that you can't beat somebody with nobody, but none-of-the-above came remarkably close to Hillary last month in Michigan.

At any rate, if you thought the right would coalesce around Giuliani then perhaps political analysis is not your strong suit. He's pro-choice, pro-gun-control, pro-gay-rights. He's been married three times and his children hate him. He divorced one wife via press conference, and attempted to move his mistress into the mayoral mansion while he was still married. And he stinks of New York, aka as Sin City in many parts.

As for your other nonsense about the electoral college, it's quite easy to find states that could shift into the Democratic column. Try Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico and Arkansas.

Re Giuliani: he had what was considered an unassailable lead in the polls in Florida in the fall -- a lead he might have held if he had competed in other primaries instead of allowing McCain to get up a head of steam in NH and SC. Remember that he and McCain were competing for essentially the same voters -- that's why when McCain peaked in FL it dropped Giuliani all the way down to third. If Giuliani had campaigned hard in NH, he might have been the winner instead of McCain and SC would have been a horse race between Giuliani and Huckabee. If Giuliani had followed that up with a big win in FL, McCain is the one who would have had to drop out of Super Tuesday and I think Giuliani ends up almost exactly where McCain is right now.

Mind you, I am GLAD things worked out as they did. I'm not fan of McCain's but at least if he wins the White House, I know that he'll relinquish power some day. Giuliani, on the other hand, tried to get the term limits law in New York City tossed out after 9/11 but gave it up when it became clear that the judiciary wouldn't buy it. The idea of a man who thinks he's so important that we cannot do without him having the power to appoint judges scares the shit out of me.

As for the electoral college: blue states that might turn red are NJ, OR, NH, PA and CT. Red states that might turn blue are NM (almost certainly), CO, OH and IA. I think FL, NV, and MO are a stretch no matter who the Dems run -- if the Democrats can win those states they will also be able to hold the above-mentioned blue states and will win easily. Basically, the Democratic strategy should be to win all of Kerry's states plus OH. It won't be an easy thing to do against McCain, who has appeal for independents.