The polls which show Obama and Clinton equally electable against McCain are wrong. They reflect the psychology of the electorate today, not in November.

I believe there are 2 great motivating factors for Democrats right now. A passion for Obama, and hatred of George Bush. I know, Hillary has her supporters, but outside of Bill and Chelsea, one would be hard pressed to call any of them passionate. Obama supporters love Obama. Clinton supporters think Hillary would do a good job. The disparity in motivation is substantial and significant.

In November, one of those motivating factors will be gone. The Democratic nominee will not be running against George Bush (as both Dems implicitly are on the nomination campaign trail). We will lose some of the anybody but Bush motivation when it becomes clear that (presumably) McCain too, is (at least marginally) better than Bush.

If Hillary is the nominee, we lose the second motivating factor. |When we combine that with the enormous disappointment that passionate Obama supporters will feel, I expect 2 phenomena will emerge. Many dissapointed Obama supporters will simply feel that if they don't get to vote for Barack, they won'tt want to vote at all. Some Obama supporters will go further and do the election year arithmetic, if McCain wins, they can vote for Obama again in 4 years. If Hillary wins, whether she's elected to a 2nd term or not, it will be 8 years before Obama can run again. Barack was right when he said that if he won, Hillary's supporters would certainly coalesce behind him, but if Hillary won, his supporters would not be as agreeable.

Now combine this with the anti-Hillary Republican vote, and it's quite easy to see how McCain is in a much stronger position against Clinton in November than the polls suggest. For more, see <a href="http://famoustrader.type­pad.com/famous_trader/2008/01/­reasons-to-vote.html">The Reason to vote for Obama</a>.

That started out being a very insightful post then degenerated. First you completely ignore the possibility that Obama will be the VP nominee.

Obama would have to wait for 8 years to run again but it might be 8 years as VP. That may not be the top but it is more prestigious than Senator and would provide occasional forums for national and global speech making and apperances. If offered I think he'd accept. The guy is only 46! He'd be a perfect age to run for president in 2116.

You are correct in that many of the motivating factors now will be gone in November. If Hillary is the nominee, then, as in all elections the party faithful will likely rally around her as they have done in the past, even for pathetic candidates like Bob Dole and Michael Dukakis. Once she has the nomination in hand a lot of the objections will fade and acceptance will sink in.

Lastly, you don't seem to consider how Hillary will appear in contrast with McCain. In commercials, in debates. She is a woman in the prime of her political power while McCain..well..have you seen him talk? Or even move around the stage? Reagan was the oldest ever elected but younger than McCain. And I can assure you Reagan was a lot more vibrant and well preserved.

And if McCain gives that two stubby thumbs up sign one more time...he is doomed ;-)/

"It is more prestigious than senator." Even with Bill Clinton stomping around?

There is no way I would vote for another charming ill prepared presidential candidate like Bush. I would rather McCain be elected that vote for Obama; too much damage could result from illprepared charm. So your analysis fails to apprehend the voters' reasons for NOT supporting Obama.

Prediction: NO elections in 2008

Here is how it will come about:

1. Time magazine, December 17, 2007. Page 46 "The Fort Dix Conspiracy"

+

2. e-book, www.farviewu.biz Was AIDS a terrorist act?

+

3. <link>

+

4. Number of envelopes received in Presidential candidates offices
with white powder (sugar?);
One group had brown powder (ant killer?) with note "Don't Bug Me"

=

NO elections in 2008

Have the American political parties set up event 4 to keep themselves
in power? They know,
based on event 3, that the person(s) who send these envelopes cannot
be traced. Further,
they estimate that once they get this "mailing" going thousands of
un-happy Americans will
join the crowd and the mailings will get completely out of hand.

The politicians have not been talking about the REAL problems facing
America today.
Look at web site www.saps08.net to see what the issues really are.

Furthermore, I predict that the U.S., under the leadership of Bush,
will solve the immigrant
problem by taking over Mexico and making it a U.S. territory. This
will probably happen in
late 2008.

Bumper stickers:

Confused State of America
2008 Vote for this HONEST
Politician ______________

In Washington: If it smacks of
morality or common sense its a
matter of religion!

For President in '08
__ None of the above.