....is that Giuliani's (presumed) endorsement of him only gives him voters he's going to get anyhow -- those who buy into the concept of Daddy Republican defending us from the big, bad Muslims. Giuliani was supposedly going to get those votes before he blundered into staking everything on Florida and got momentum-ed into irrelevance. Now that he is withdrawing, McCain will pick up most of his voters no matter what Giuliani does.

But the man whose votes will REALLY "choose a President," or at least the nomination, are Huckabee's. On Feb. 5 it is likely that Huckabee will go down in flames on both coasts and no longer be viable. But he's going to get a decent number of southern delegates on that day as well, and those delegates will be fought over a lot more competitively than Giuliani's. If Romney can win two or three of the seriously big states -- NY, CA, or IL -- and add a few mid-sized ones (NJ, MA, etc.), he's very competitive with McCain and Huckabee's votes may well be the difference.

Problem is, what do you offer Huckabee for his delegates? The second spot on the ticket? McCain presumably would give that to Giuliani, since they share a common identity vis-a-vis terrorism and nothing else is going to win in November if the recession worsens as it appears to be doing. Romney, for his part, has been arduously wooing the pro-business wing of the Party and they have been openly contemptuous of Huckabee. But what else is there? You don't offer ambassadorships to state governors. Besides, all too many of Huckabee's supporters are suspicious of Romney's Mormonism and might not go along.

I thought Giuliani would last through Feb. 5, during which he would win at least a few hundred delegates, and THEN begin to broker a deal. The early cave-in means McCain is almost home, but as it is the opera ain't over until the formerly fat governor sings.

I wonder how long John Dickerson can hold out before he's forced to echo your views? You nailed the whole shabang a week before super tuesday. Not much left to munch on now, except maybe some old leftover freedom fries.

You really think McCain is foolish enough to pick his friend Giuliani as a running mate? That move would only solidify his base of security conservatives, alienating the fiscal conservatives who support Romney and the religious conservatives who like Huckabee.

Wrong on many accounts; first of all, McCain was polling well ahead in CA (+9), NY (+9), and IL(+11) before winning Florida. Unless he starts dressing in drag, he's going to take those states. New York is winner-take-all and 101 delegates, with McCain's home state of Arizona worth 53 winner-take-all delegates.

With Rudy out, McCain takes New Jersey as well as New York without a contest, and NJ's winner-take-all as well (52 delegates). Without even working for it, McCain's taking 206 delegates to Romney's 0. That means Romney would have to win California (where he's polling well behind McCain), Missouri (where he's polling well behind McCain), Illinois (polling well behind McCain), Georgia (polling even or slightly behind McCain), and Tennessee (can't find any good data). What's more, he'd have to take them by OVERWHELMING margins.

For example, if McCain takes AZ, NY, and NJ, but Romney takes CA, MS, IL,GA, and TN by a 55-25 margin, McCain still leaves Super Tuesday with a 400-300 delegate lead. To take the lead, Romney would have to have every other candidate drop out, then take those up-for-grabs states by something like 80-20.

John McCain could marry Britney Spears, then threaten to pull all the troops out of Iraq and have them launch simultaneous attacks on Great Britain and the Indian Ocean, and it still wouldn't give Romney those kinds of bounces.

So, first things first, Florida locks things up for McCain. He's the Republican nominee.

Even if it was going to be close, Huckabee is a much better VP choice for McCain than Guiliani. Guiliani's not going to help McCain with any new constituency: Huckabee shores up support with evangelicals, who McCain could certainly use. He's still weak with the pro-business wing, that's true, but he was never going to be strong there, no matter who his veep will be.

Edwards is a much more likely kingmaker (kingmaker, not queenmaker) than Huckabee is.

i dont think its "a problem" to receive delegates through an endorsement that you were likely to attain legitimately. its a relief, it reduces uncertainty, but its not a problem per se.

but you're right on when you begin to wonder about running mates.

i don't see mccain offering the VP spot to romney (or huckabee, even less likely). but he probably does need someone with a bit more appeal to the creationist-gun toting wing of the party. i don't have any names to serve up, since i dont visit that neighborhood.

romney would be a disaster as a candidate. he's not going to draw any crossover votes from independents or nervous centrist democrats. he's too rich, too elitist, and as huckabee quipped "he looks like the guy who gave you your layoff notice. i look like the guy who worked on the assembly line beside you"

clearly, americans don't want an aloof billionaire or someone who looks like an assembly line worker in the white house.

this probably dooms edwards' candidacy, since he believes $400 haircuts are a bargain. with the astonishingly high (and consistent) negatives of folks who say they'd never vote for hillary, obama (on the surface) appears to be the only choice for democrats to retake the white house. but he probably can't win the general election either, as a first term senator whose largest financial experience was persuading a disgraced investor to buy the vacant lot next door to his home.

in florida 90% of the democrats and 65% of the republicans believe the economy is the most important issue.

does anyone trust obama to fix the economy? (or hillary for that matter).

mccain's next step isn't to name a VP, but get a better treasury secretary in waiting, on the assumption that he will be in charge of fixing things.

Are you kidding me? McCain will have a huge uphill battle against either Obama or Hillary but he might be able to convince just enough swing voters to get elected if he has a decent running mate.

McCain will be oldest president ever elected if he wins. Do you really think most Americans want Ayatollah Huckabee a heartbeat away from the presidency?

I'm personally ashamed someon like Huckabee is even in contention. Democracy perfected alright.

those who buy into the concept of Daddy Republican defending us from the big, bad Muslims.

Big bad Muslims don't worry you? Well, then the jury is still out who is sane here.

Recessions and health care and all that don't do much for me compared to big, bad muslims. One big bomb in New York harbor and all of a sudden America gets refocused agains. Too bad it takes a hundred thousand deaths to bring that about.

Having said all that, we might agree that Bush single handedly destroyed our global good will and made a mess of the terrorist cause. So, yes, maybe McCain is not the guy to fix it if he thinks heavy artillary and invasions are the answer. I was not questioning your opinion on that. I am just saying that global terrorism is the scariest and most important issue of our generation.

McCain will pick up most of his voters no matter what Giuliani does.

Giuliani's supporters are a diverse bunch, and I don't think we can expect all five of them to switch their allegiance to any one candidate.

There is no way in hell Giuliani will be the VP nominee. That's absolutely absurd. McCain will pick a VP with appeal to the GOP base that he badly needs to short up. It will certainly not be Huckabee either. Who, by the way, has NEVER been a viable candidate, despite his flash in the pan in Iowa.

Are you kidding me? McCain will have a huge uphill battle against either Obama or Hillary

Not against Hillary he won't. The polls already show him leading her. He has far greater appeal to independents. Hillary repulses them. Furthermore, the prospect of a Clinton restoration will drive right-wing turnout to historic levels.

Edwards is a much more likely kingmaker (kingmaker, not queenmaker) than Huckabee is.

Hardly. He's quitting the race today with all of 26 delegates out of 4000+

"Big bad Muslims don't worry you? Well, then the jury is still out who is sane here."

I've reached a verdict.

I have no idea what you are going rule, I am insane or is the top poster? Look, I lost a lot of money to a co-worker on the OJ verdict which they reached in a matter of hours, so I am that kind of a guy.

I'll equivocate. I think your fear is unwarrented and unfortunate.

screwjack2007:

I'll equivocate. I think your fear is unwarrented and unfortunate.

You mean you won't equivocate.

Anyway, I see no reason to think taliban minds of this world have changed their spots since 9/11. Death to the infidel is their salient goal. I hope you are right and I am wrong and insane.