I'm not sure if Rudy proves you have to necessarily win the early states, but I think he shows you have to at least be competitive. His string of 4th and 5th place finishes doomed his campaign because they were in such contrast to his rhetoric and his plotted path to the nomination.

He portrayed himself as the best known candidate, the national front runner, and the guy who could compete nationwide, not just in Iowa. But then he started to rack up huge defeats. He got creamed in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wyoming, Nevada, and South Carolina.

He couldn't win in the heartland, the Northeast, the rust belt, the west, or the south. Where is left for him to go? Where would he have competed if he made it out of Florida and took the race national?

I agree with what you say about not winning the early state but I don't think anybody will try this strategy for a long while. So in effect the CW is right. You can't ignore them.

I figured with Rudy that people would see that he is a jerk, and not want to vote for a jerk. But then, that's what I figured when an entitled sissy frat-boy jerk ran, and he won twice. So guess it wasn't the jerk-radar, after all.