Re: Why isn't this front page news
by
bmgreene
01/25/2008, 4:47 PM #
mgee: I disagree. The housing bubble really went nuclear in 2004-2005, well after the economy had recovered from the aftermath of 9/11 and from the tech bubble. I would compare the late 90s dotcom bubble with the housing bubble of '02-'03, but it just does not compare in scope OR damage (much of it still hidden...) with the extraordinary bubble heights of '04-'07.
By the way, I agree with the other poster. I'm a layperson; I don't have anything to do with real estate or the economy, but I knew that something baaaaaad was happening in bubble-inflated areas from regular news reports. I was more alive to it then because I was in the process of buying a house (20% down, 30 year fixed mortgage, less than 25% debt-to-income ratio - and I am NOT rich - , less than an equivalent rental, thank you very much) in a non-bubble market at the time, but had friends out in California and Florida. Still, I knew that 80% (EIGHTY PER CENT) of mortgages in some of these markets required creative (100%, ARM, or I/O) mortgages, and knew that something was wrong, and that that was not sustainable.
It probably did hit critical mass sometime in the first half of '05, but it was inflating starting in '02-03 (recovery really set in in early or mid '03). I've been living in L.A. the whole time, and have thought that real estate was due for correction/collapse in pricing since '04, since by then most actual homeowners, and virtually all first-time buyers had been priced out of the market in much of L.A. (this in turn helped drive, bubbles in Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas, NV since potential investors/speculators in CA began looking to adjacent states).
The boom market drew in lots of greed in the form of speculators (aka "flippers"), unscrupulous lenders & agents, and some buyers who got so caught up in being told that they could get a mortgage to buy a house that they assumed would double in value in 3 years that they often didn't bother reading the contracts they were signing (or paying a few hundred bucks to have an attorney review it for them), and didn't consider that they couldn't actually pay off the loan by any stretch of imagination. Also many of the shadier mortgage brokers were pressing prime borrowers into sub-prime loans because the broker commisions were bigger.
At some point though, anyone who signs a contract that they can't live up to (on either side of the deal) has to assume their share of responsibility for that. The predatory lenders are getting clobbered financially without any legal action since they ignored any sort of underwriting standards thinking that they would still come out ahead on foreclosures thanks to continued appreciation (in many of these cases, they were even lending 110-125% of the property values), and additionally, often had to provide guarantees to those who they sold the loans off to (this is what happened to American Home Mortgage, and may still happen to Countrywide, as their entire business model was a house of cards dependent on the natural cycle of the market never reverting to its course). I'd even venture a guess that at least half of the defaults/foreclosures will not result in the eviction of homeowners as the last few years in the bubble markets were largely flippers and speculators trading properties around (much like tech stocks in 1999).
I'm personally looking forward to it, as I make around $100k per year with no credit card debt (just $4k left on my car loan), and I can't afford even a 1 bedroom condo in areas of L.A. where it would make sense for me to live due to where I work. Of course, I'm one of those freaks who believes that anyone who can't afford the payment on a 30-year fixed with at least 10% (preferably 20%) down then you really can't afford the house.
At the time that the current subprime mess was being built up, all the papers and the pols could talk about around here was how great it was that home ownership was becoming more and more accessible to those who might think they couldn't afford it (and who, it turns out were probably right after all).