McCain won't beat Huckabee in SuperTuesday - why? Because both McCain and Huck didn't have the funding to have been staffed organizations until just now. That means both are still ramping up their "for pay" staff for that big effort (in contrast to Romney who's been at it for a while now).

BUT Huckabee has had the pulpits working for him since before Iowa - something that McCain can't get near.

So at best its gonna be Romney, Huck, McCain on SuperTuesday (or whatever superlative metaphor they are using), and most likely Huck, McCain, Romney.

Meanwhile in the DNC side I predict that Edwards is going to get to pick the next POTUS of the USA. HRC and Obama are going to go tit-for-tat all the way to the convention. Neither will get more than maybe a 10%-20% edge over the other. So at best it will be 40%:25% at the convention and more likely 40%:30% or less. And Edwards will carry in 17%-20% of the delegates, That leaves Edwards as the King Maker (or alternatively as a long shot, the King on the nth Ballot).

So I wonder what price Edwards will extract. He has already said that he will NOT be Vice President.

"King Hillary"?

Disagree. McCain will beat Huck on Super Tuesday; question is, will he beat Romney? My guess is yes. Edwards will not be monarch-maker. Clinton will win the nomination all by herself, it looks now. Edwards can't possibly endorse Clinton now. If his support goes 2:1 to Obama, it still doesn't get him the nomination unless he can win very big in the south and wins either NY (never) or CA (possible, barely).

Ok how do you figure?

How will McCain beat Huckabee's pulpit network on Super Tuesday? Remember in S.Carolina, where McCain had the ability to focus his organization, he barely, just barely beat Huckabee. But McCain lacks the $$ to have that sort of organzation across 24 states - especially in a place like California where conservative churches can be very effective in turning out the small GOP base.

And how will Clinton beat Obama "all by herself"? Even though she is "winning" the various primaries and caucusses, she is doing so by narrow enough margins that Obama actually still leads in the delegate count. The delegate count is running roughly 2:2:1 HRC, Obama, Edwards. That means that neither Obama nor HRC will have more than roughly 1800 delegates at the convention, with Edwards having roughly 800-900.

Since it takes 2300 delegates to win, how does Edwards NOT become Kingmaker?

As to California, I don't see the churches being able to counter the large numbers of more socially moderate-liberal Republicans (you know, the ones who elected Arnie as governor). In fact, I could easily see Romney beating Huck there, as aside from social issues, Huck doesn't seem to be very conservative in the ways those wealthy country club conservatives like (low taxes etc).

Re Edwards, the question in my mind is whether he can continue to pull in the delegates in the coming rounds when it looks increasingly like he has no chance. I think it quite possible that significant numbers of those currently supporting him might decide their votes for him would be wasted, and thus might vote for Hillary or Obama.

Independents and conservative Dems elected Arnie. Huck's support of the "fair tax" plays into the Cyberselfish Silly Gulch GOPers. Romney will play well because of the strong LDS Church presence. But McCain won't play outside the OC

The delegate ratio will change when the big states vote. Huck's church network will not be effective if it is not backed up by the Republican establishment, which it won't be. The more Huck talks, the less viable he will seem, even to his parishioners . McCain will get new money as it appears increasingly viable. Edwards' support is fading as once again we get into the polarity of the win-lose two party system with its strengths and weaknesses. These things always seem to boil down to two main candidates. I hope I'm wrong about Clinton. I'd love to see Obama nominated, but I don't see it happening from this point.

Organization matters. Huck went up against the GOP establishment in Iowa and NH as well, and had far more traction than was expected.

In the large states, who does the GOP establishment back?

• McCain? - a guy who can really only hold office for 1 term and who really isn't supportive of much of the GOP core
• Romney? - the mormon trainwreck that instantly alienates all christian conservatives?
• Gooliano (as the South Carolinians call him)? - a man who really is just HRC running as a GOP candidate?

NAh, the GOP "establishment" doesn't have a good dog in this fight. And it is already too late for any money flowing into McCain's org to make a difference. Remember, it takes 1-2 weeks to film any sort of meaningful TV spot, and the Super Tuesday elections are just over 2 weeks away.

for the GOP it comes down to organization. And Huckabee has a built in organization in the form of churches.

On the Dem side, - explain what whill change the delegate ratio? What mechanism comes into play that is not already in play?

"So I wonder what price Edwards will extract. He has already said that he will NOT be Vice President."

I don't know that I agree with your analysis, but if so, the first open Supreme Court seat may be a potential bargaining chip.

Now that's an interesting idea. Edwards would appreciate the power of sitting on the court hmmm

The key is a Giuliani collapse. McCain is now polling 6-15 points ahead of Giuliani in New York. 3 points up in NJ. 23 points up in Conn. Assuming Rudy doesn't win Florida, McCain may take all of those winner take all states.

That's how!