Gross isn't looking at all the data.
by
Madai
12/21/2007, 10:44 AM #
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Cabela's opened NO stores in 2001, and one each in 2002, 2003, and 2004.
4 in 2005
4 in 2006
6 in 2007.
Cabela's is touristy. I drive cross country, from time to time, and if there's a Cabela's on the way, I might stop and stretch. And then, impulse buy. Due to the nature of the store, Cabela's can cannabalize each other even with so few stores.
Consider Prairie du Chien, an older 40,000 square foot store, located on the mississippi. It is surely being cannibalized by the new huge stores in Rogers, Minnesota, AND the one in richfield.
This is a classic case of overexpansion. Meanwhile, with expansion into Canada, I doubt Cabela's will be down forever. After all, the WEATHER problem is quite real. Iowa's hunters made a poor showing this year, so the DNR extended the season.
Finally, while discretionary spending is down in the arena of hunting, 2007 saw the launch of the Iphone, and red-hot sales of the Wii since it's launch late 2006.(The stocks of Apple and Nintendo are) Could it be that Iphones and Wiis are eating the lunch of gun sellers?
And another stock that is soaring, and recently split: John Deere. The most avid hunters I've known are farmers. Could it be they've been too busy busting ass to harvest corn at the best price in 100 years and buy tractors, rather than improving their gun collections?
2007 has been a volatile year, but the major indexes are still higher then they were at start of year. For every stock that's going down, there's a stock going up. So, while you write a bearish story, you're missing out on a bullish story.