In CIA parlance, it is just short of "Slam Dunk".

Hummm.... anyone who takes an Intelligence Estimate executive summary at face value, given the record of the CIA mistakes, should be estimated as having low intelligence.

To be fair, the "High Confidence" estimate is only that they stopped in 2003 the program to develop a nuclear weapon. The estimate that they have not already restarted the program is only of "Moderate Confidence".

And of course, to this day Iraq has not admitted that it ever had this program, just as it failed for years to report to the IAEA, in violation of their treaty commitments, that they were working on developing nuclear energy. And of course, we know that the IAEA inspector general recently reported that answers from Iraq from their agency are becoming more difficult to obtain.

....but never mind, the CIA has "High Confidence" we can survive the loss of a major city, retaliate and rebound before the ice caps melt and drown us all.

Aw, c'mon.

The CIA's (probably) had loads of massive successes over the past decade. We just don't know what they are because they're secret.

If something the CIA does becomes un-secret, then (almost by definition) something's gone wrong. Ergo, whenever you read something about the CIA in the press, it's invariably negative.

Which means that whenever the CIA actually says something in public then people have plenty of ammunition to dismiss it: after all, everything one ever reads about the Agency shows it to be incompetent.