China's current population is estimated at ~1.34 billion people.

Assume half of those people are between 15-40 (child bearing age), and we have ~670 million. Assume 48% of those people are female, and now we have ~320 million women of child bearing age.

If China has become a world filled with girls-gone-wild promiscuity, then there would be a fairly high chance of sperm fertilizing egg for any one of these child-bearing age women.

Let's say the average girl manages to figure out what to do with the penis once a week. Assuming no contraception, that gives a ~14% chance of any given month resulting in a rapid abortion. With 12 months/year, that means that without contraception the average child-bearing age woman would need an abortion ~1.7 times/year... or China would need to abort or birth ~544 million fetuses/year.

Michelle then goes on to state that 13 million abortions are performed, and 10 million pills are purchased per year - or 23 million fetuses are aborted/year. Add to that ~19 million births/year... and we see a total of ~42 million fetuses being conceived each year.

That's ~8% of what you might expect in a country that is utterly clueless concerning contraception... assuming that they only had sex once/week. If they had sex 7 days/week, obviously that would mean only 1% of the country couldn't figure out the intricate complexities of the condom technology...

Which means that something in the story might be a wee-bit exagerated... or China actually has a pretty good sex-ed system and one person that Michelle talked to managed to miss it.

I support good sex-ed, but I don't like it when someone pushes a bullshit story to try to argue for a sound policy.

:)

Or maybe most Chinese teens are still not having pre-marital sex but the article is focusing on the naivetee of the ones who are.

Admit it Tundrayeti, your criticism deliberately miscontrued the article so you could pull out your calculator for a snarky retort ;- ).

But I do find the anecdotal story to be a bit heavy on the bullshit.

I respond to bullshit with snark. *shrug*

:)

Unfortunately, some in our elite seem to enjoy making up obviously STUPID stories about other people to deamonize them.

You'd think there'd be enough real stuff...like here, we have 2 million people in jail, more per capita than anyone in the entire history of the world and yet we are so great...we have NO problems at all, NONE, and if you mention them, you are unpatriotic!

I love my country, I have several waterfalls in my home, a place to keep food fresh, electricity all day and night and most of the time, good heat. I am a lucky duck and I know it...but that does not mean I go along with zealot LIERS who don't want to pay a market price for oil when they blather on about the market being so devine!

Sheesh.

Except that she's really only talking about university youth (or young women in more urban/liberal settings), so that's a tiny tiny percentage of the population of women. (only about five million, I think)

And the chance of conception when a young woman has sex during ovulation is not 100%, but only 20%. So the average Chinese woman who has sex once a week (And you are assuming that every woman is having unprotected sex once a week? Where did you get this number?) should need an abortion only .3 times a year.

And this isn't to be rude or spiteful, but you're pretty much doing the same thing in making up bullshit math to support your point.

I just skimmed the article, thought it was bullshit, and pulled out the snarky retort.

It was the ludicrous instance where "the couple couldn't figure out what to do with the penis" that the story lost all credibility with me... But it did. So I figured I'd just see how ludicrous that might be. I knew that the chance of conception was not 100% if a woman had sex during ovation... but I'm surprised that it's as low as 20%. I had assumed it was in the 80-90% range and therefore wasn't worth adding another line in the calculations... Everything was broad-strokes estimates anyway.

But 20% is surprising, I'll take your word for it... and I will concede that indicates that Chinese sex education has some work to do.

90% pregnancy rate for sex? Ouch. Heh, sounds like Tunrayeti didn't do much experimenting with unprotected sex back in the day ;- ).

There's a very large difference between your chances of unprotected sex resulting in conception during ovation and unprotected sex resulting in conception during any normal sex act.

And of course I didn't experiment with unprotected sex. Hell, I used condoms (for disease prevention) while my partners were on the pill until I met the woman who would eventually become my wife (we both, at one point, went and got a thorough STD screening so we could lose the condoms, she's still on the pill). My statistical chances (pre-wife) - if the 20% is correct - of sex resulting in conception were somewhere around 8 in 100,000 if we had sex during ovation...

:)

But yes, I did believe that the chances were quite high for an average if the timing was right, and assumed that some people had trouble, but clearly most people don't. This has never been a subject I've been interested in studying... because the wife and I aren't trying to have kids yet.

A very analytical approach to sex ;- ).

Yea... I guess so. It worked well enough for me.

:)

: )