Jeter, Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui.

Going by the bus test, Jeter and Posada are future HOFers, with Jeter being having a decent shot at the highest first-round vote total in history. Rivera is the best reliever in baseball history. In other words, these guys are outliers - the typical aging curve isn't likely to tell us much about them. That Pettitte made so much money is a good indication of the scarcity and cost of above-average pitching (especially when it's pretty reliably projectable).

Damon and Matsui are the real head scratchers here. Damon posting career-high OPS+ at 35 was surprising to say the least. I wonder if Scott Boras will be able to spin that lightning-in-a-bottle into a multi-year contract.

Agree with the conclusion certainly. It's terrific that the Yanks put everything together in their first season in the new Stadium, but this championship looks to me mostly like a very nice coda for 96-2000 dynasty.

Not a slam-dunk first-ballot like Jeter, but I expect he'll go in. An excellent offensive player who was not too bad defensively to stick at a premium defensive position for his whole career (so far), and who was an important member of four WS Champion teams (and Yankee teams, though I don't know how much that matters anymore). Piazza's ahead of by a fair bit, sure, but that's not really a knock.

How he finishes his career will be pretty important, so, true, he hasn't passed the bus test yet. If he's productive through his age-40 season (~115 OPS+ in ~130 G/S), he's going to have a very strong case. Given the knee issues, that's likely a big if, but he is coming off a 130 OPS+ season and I would imagine he'll DH a fair bit over the remainder of his career.

I'm pretty confident he'll be elected.

If Jeter was hit by a bus tomorrow, he'd be elected to the HOF. Which is to say that he's already put together a sufficient resume, not that he'd get some sort of pity vote.

Just a weird way of saying "if his career ended tomorrow." It's pretty common in HOF discussions, at least for baseball players.

If Jeter was hit by a bus tomorrow, he'd be elected to the HOF

interesting. what if he stole a bus, ran down a whole classroom of kids crossing legally, then died in a shootout with the cops? how would you call this test?

and why should anyone care if a bunch of old guys elected (or not) professional ball players to some made-up association? do you think Pete Rose for example is less famous for not being elected?

Care about whatever you want to care about.

As for Rose, yes, he'd be "more famous" if he were in the HOF. And richer, too.

ayalonValley:

If Jeter was hit by a bus tomorrow, he'd be elected to the HOF

interesting. what if he stole a bus, ran down a whole classroom of kids crossing legally, then died in a shootout with the cops? how would you call this test?

and why should anyone care if a bunch of old guys elected (or not) professional ball players to some made-up association? do you think Pete Rose for example is less famous for not being elected?

You know who cares? Pete Rose cares.

Pete Rose cares.

Really? You hardly ever hear from the guy! ;>

jim in providence:

Care about whatever you want to care about.

As for Rose, yes, he'd be "more famous" if he were in the HOF. And richer, too.

i fail to see why he would be more famous. i am a typical casual fan, probably would not know 99% of the hall members. as for richer, i don't know and to be honest don't care.

i am always amused by the passion into which you hall fans rant about entry "credentials", like if 10 years at .300 is better than 12 years at .299. again who gives a fuck! the attempt to marry stats with fame is bogus anyway. take whatisname, pitching the bloody sock game made him famous regardless of what the hall gatekeepers will "rule" (relax, i'm not a redsocks fan)

rsmdpa:

You know who cares? Pete Rose cares.

everyone wants to belong to the club which won't accept him, except for Groucho Marx

i fail to see why he would be more famous. i am a typical casual fan, probably would not know 99% of the hall members. as for richer, i don't know and to be honest don't care.

even though you don't care ... Rose is as rich and as famous as he is on account of professional baseball (let's ignore the gambling). That's the context in which he's most recognizable, and that recognition translates into earning power. But he's a pariah, completely shut out from anything to do with baseball. Sure he does autograph shows, but he'd make *significantly* more money if he were able to set up a little booth in Cooperstown on induction day AND if he were able to sign "HOF" after his name. He can't manage, can't be an analyst (well, he could, but nobody's going to hire him). I've talked to baseball fans in their teens - they sort of knew Rose as "the guy who got banned from baseball for cheating." The guy was a historically great ballplayer; he could be doing better.

As for the HOF - you're right, some people take it way too seriously (the "small hall" folks, for example). But one thing often overlooked is that Cooperstown is a museum as well as a HOF. There's a bunch of Pete Rose stuff in there, mostly relating to 4190. It definitely celebrates "fame" apart from any consideration of stats.

thanks for the clarification. Rose is a special case, as he is not just banned from the "hall" but from baseball itself.

you're right, some people take it way too seriously

your'e not; right :)

your'e not; right :)

Nah. I recognize the importance of "fame" in a HOF case. Schilling's going to get some serious support because of his post-season heroics (in Arizona as well as Boston) and that might just put him over the edge. This can be taken to ridiculous levels, though (Jack Morris). Jim Rice is one case that bugs me just because he yammered about not being elected year after year. He's a borderline guy who acts like he's inner-circle.

My tiny bit of sympathy for Rose comes from the fact that he agreed to being put on the permanently ineligible list expecting to be reinstated after a year. From what I've read, Giammati was likely aware of Rose's expectation. He should have just gone to the mat and banned Rose outright, union be damned. Add to this that Rose couldn't have known that the HOF would subsequently refuse to put ineligible players on the ballot.