I don't really think your overall theme that because these gubernatorial elections, won by the rebulicans, equates true trouble for Obama. You explained it yourself that the Republican candidates ran on local issues and stayed away from national hot button issues. While republicans may gain some talking points, polls on independents show Obama had little to do with the elections, and the two Congressional races up for ballot (NY & CA) were won by Democrats in seats that were very competitive. Additionally both Democratic gubernatorial candidates were weak, Corzine was unpopular on his own account, and Deeds ran a horrible campaign rebuking White House assistance. So if the economy nominally recovers in 2010 ( when a good chunk of stimulus should kick in) Democrats may lose a few seats, but Republicans will not take the house or senate or be a formidable force in 2012 ( unless some unseen catastrophe occurs). So bad analysis on you part Dickerson, you seem inclined to go for the most inflamatory news breaking stories that hold little water in the end. Maybe you should rethink your profession.

If the economy only nominally recovers by the fall of 2010 the Dems will lose more than just a few seats. The nation is clearly anti-incumbent and of course this helps the minority party more than the majority party. The Dems also set themselves up by making big claims in 2008. Thus turnout could be low in 2010 like we say in these elections since many of those that voted in 2008 will be 'down' and not feel like voting. This is where the Obama 'wave' really comes into play.

If the economy, especially unemployment is 'good' (say < 7%), then Dems will do very good but if not, and the GOP runs fiscal cons (instead of nutcase 'Obama is a commie' types), the GOP will make major gains. Not enough for a majority but well on their way towards doing so in 2012.

Exactly. That's why the results of yesterdays elections are so meaningless. An off-off year election.

And the GOP won 2 governships but lost ah historically GOP congressional seat? That's supposed to mark some sea change?

The demographic factors in off year elections favor republicans- young and minority voters are less likely to vote than older ones.

Because of strong showings in the past couple of elections, the Dems are now in control of more contestable seats and so have more of a chance to lose some ground.

Both of these factors , along with the historical norm of the opposition party picking up seats in such elections would indicate that we're going to see some GOP gains in 2010. But lets start talking real numbers.

The scenario that seems to be playing out- the economy is already improving and the worst of the recession is behind us, but job growth is lagging. By the time elections roll around, we will be in full recovery mode and the economic mood will be brighter- though the still high [but lower] unemployment will still be a factor. The GOP will gain 10-20 seats in the house and 1-2 Senate seats.