The NY 23rd was an exercise in three stooge’s style politics. First, they apparently do not have primaries. That is an open invitation for machine control of the process. The initial candidate was picked by the…? powers in charge and turned out to be a liberal in moderate cloth. (I am far away from there and only know what I read.)

Then she bows out days before the election when apparently many had already cast their ballots. Regardless of the parties involved, this election is not a bellwether for anything other than perhaps the need for a change in the process itself. Nevertheless, it is a win for the Dems.

Both VA and NJ must be as dizzy as a whirling dervish with all the spinning going on by both sides. I prefer to think of the results as a modest rebuke of the policies and politics of the status quo.

What I will be very interested in seeing is how these elections affect those with their jobs on the line next year. Will the Blue Dogs become more conservative/moderate? Will the left in general try to distance itself from the leadership? Will the right see an opportunity to regain its conservative values and dispose of the far-right neocons?

Overall, these results cannot be seen as a win for the left even though there is not a clear mandate for the right either. I think when the dust settles in a day or two the only tangible result will be a conservative moderation of the HC debate.

I do hope that real, effective reform that we can afford and that will actually result in reducing costs and making care more available will be the winner here.

I'd have to see it much the same way....not a 'win' for either side, really, but an indication of continuing unrest that will have to be addressed for the Dems to do well in 2010.

Some interesting notes:

6. Barack Obama is viewed as a moderate.
In New Jersey, where Republican Christie won with 49% of the vote, 57% of voters in exit polls say they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing. In Virginia, where Republican Bob McDonnell won with 59% of the vote, Obama had a 52% approval rating. That means that, at the very least, a good number of independent voters who voted for a Republican, approve of Obama. Unless you think thousands of people can support right-wing candidates and wild-eyed liberals, these voters think of Obama as what he actually is: a moderate Democrat. And if so-called "moderates" won the day over all, as many of yer TV punditry are palavering about, then the President is seen as one of them.

Are we done until 2010 now?
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As I said, not a big win for either side. I would further agree that this doesn't exactly kill the Dems in 2010 or hurt Obama that bad. I DO think it was kind of a mistake to push so hard on behalf of a lame candidate like Corzine, but that's JMO.

Certainly claims like FauxNews' "sweep" can be seen as ridiculous.

OldGaffer,

You are comparing actual results with exit poll data. The VNS exit polls produce historically liberal biased results (as evidenced by actual vote tallies that don't line up), and according to Slate's own Kaus, yesterday's election is no different. Not surprising that Obama appeared to do well in the exit polls - so did the gubernatorial candidates who ended up losing.

Gaffer:

Do you have a view and how these elections will affect behavior, if at all, in the near-term, say through the 2010 elections?

So you are going on record that Obama has a lower approval rating in Virginia and New Jersey than the exit polls stated?

On record? This is posted on the internet for all to see.

prorixum

Exit polls are an opportunity to screw with the media and poll takers. I have no obligation to tell them anything let alone give them my actual views about things. Whenever I get the opportunity I like to express my views that being a professional politician should be a capital offense, as should belonging to a political party.

If more folks would take this opportunity to explore their wilder sides with poll takers, maybe we could be rid of that scourge. I’m just saying…

The latest state numbers I could find from Gallup:

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August numbers, but unless you think his approval ratings have tanked in NJ and Va but nowhere else in the country, those numbers are significant.

National numbers seem to have stayed about even since August:

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Those are not August numbers. They are average of Jan - Jun 2009. From the article: "Since June, Obama's approval rating has descended into the 50s, sinking as low as 52% in late July before recovering somewhat and settling back in the mid- to upper 50s in recent days. An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily data collected in July and August suggests that Obama's approval rating has declined in most states compared with the January-June averages. "

DirtyBird,

Participation bias and selection bias are two factors that alter aggregate results even if everyone told the truth.

Gaffer:

As for the record: I am against cannibalism. However, in the quiet of the high mountain pass, we do what we have to do to survive. Likewise, what I say to a stranger with a mike or a pad and pencil may be a tad more PC than what I am actually thinking.

For instance: Obama has been in office less than a full year; he inherited a nasty pile of steaming dung from the last bunch; he's never been in a position like he's in now and the enormity of the responsibilities must be overwhelming; there are serious issues pressing in from all sides and he's beginning to understand why that job requires great management skills and experience in executive positions. I do not think he is up for the job, but I am not sure any other human being would be fully up for the job. Some better than others and he’s not going to be successful in my view.

Do I wish he would? Yes! He is our President. If he fails, we all take it on the chin. I am an American first and a conservative American later on.

Therefore, if I am not too frisky with the polltaker, I am likely to say I admire him and wish him well. That is not the same as endorsing his policies so if you questions do not allow for the nuance, you will get a politically unreliable response.

Great point. I suspect that since the right generally feels the media is skewed left, they would be more likely to repspond the right more likey to avoid them or screw with them?

"What I will be very interested in seeing is how these elections affect those with their jobs on the line next year. Will the Blue Dogs become more conservative/moderate? Will the left in general try to distance itself from the leadership? Will the right see an opportunity to regain its conservative values and dispose of the far-right neocons?"

Yep. Except for NY-23,yesterday pretty much followed historical precedence. What happens from today forward will really be the only way to gauge yesterday's results.