'at best appalling and at worst a harbinger of doom'
by
GreenwichJ
11/01/2009, 6:13 AM #
One would laugh were this sentiment less accurate.
Here's a suggested strategy.
Afghanistan has about 40m people, we think. That gives it a population roughly the size of Spain's, but over a 20% larger land mass. Only a quarter of this population is urbanized, although this rate is increasing. The multiplicity of biggish ethnic groups (i.e tribes) is every bit as vexatious as in the most poorly organised African state, but the country is basically bilingual.
Here's what we do. Half the country speaks Persian (or Dari, as it's confusingly called). This half should be handed over to Iran.
The other half speaks Pashto, as does the north-west of Pakistan. So hand Kabul and the rest of the Pashto areas over to the Pakistanis - providing that they agree to allowing a Nato ground presence to assist with security. Punjabis would still remain easily the biggest ethnic group in this Greater Pakistan.
Afghanistan - that dusty, infertile, and landlocked problem - would disappear.
After all, partition sometimes works. Singapore and Malaysia have enjoyed a friendly rivalry since the partition of Malaya. The partition of Yugoslavia ended a hideous civil war and created several peaceful countries. There are plenty of partitions that were so uneventful to now have been almost forgotten, such as the partition of Slovakia and the Czech Republic. .
Of course, the worry is that if you start redrawing the map in one place, you'll increase pressures to redraw it elsewhere (Kashmir, Israel, etc). But Afghanistan has been a problem for centuries. Its geography and demographics do not bode well for its independent status. Better that it is absorbed into nations with maritime borders, manufacturing industries, ports, civilisation etc.