Re: Eco Doom & Gloom Predictions Usually Wrong
by
The Real RML
10/17/2009, 10:17 AM #
Katrina remains the key example of why environmentalists need to paint such scary pictures. No one in leadership and certainly not the average voter pays attention to the environment until we have a catastrophe or a disaster.
If I tell you the river is getting pollutted you ignore it until its on fire on CNN.
If I tell you the safety measures arent very good you do nothing until Bohpal India has thousands dead in a chemical leak or 3 Mile Island is working on the China Syndrome.
Its the same in historic context too....when Hitler invaded Poland he was just looking for a little elbow room.......
Funny but when its convenient to the right we can look at unlikely worst case scenarios (like Iraqs WMD) but when its about the air we breathe and the water we drink and the food we eat you'll wait until someones dead.
Remember that for the most part environmental policy needs to be shaped with the future in mind thus we need to predict with a lot of open variables. But just because things changed and kept the worst from happening doesnt make all environmental claims wrong or even ill conceived.
Look at the predictions Bush used for investing social security in Wall Street just a couple years ago....had he succeeded social security would have tanked with Wall Street....its a good thing we saw the danger in trusting Bush on that one (still looking for the WMD that has cost 4000 plus US troops).
Prognostication is a poor science. But if we dont try all we have is reactions to the disasters we didnt try to stop.