happening right on cue. Ten year Treasury is trading at 3.15% ... in case you thought the money wasn't pulling out.

I predicted a 5000 Dow in October... I never thought the Dow would start the month at 9700. I thought it was gonna start around 8000. I think the cash for clunkers program did a world of good for the stock market. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 7000 DOW by month's end.

I'll bet you $100 the Dow doesn't end the month at 7,000, though I think it's quite likely that stocks will end the month lower than today--perhaps 9,000 or even 8,500? We are due for a correction after 7 months' rise. But the problem with your scenario is that cash or treasuries just aren't that attractive. Bernanke is cloning a shitload of greenbacks even as fixed income yields are about the shittiest since the 1950s and the dollar itself is languishing at less than 10% above its all time lows. People are diversifying into foreign currencies and commodity ETFs when they aren't buying stocks.

Also if the market drops to 8500 it starts to look like a buyers market again, whereas now it looks somewhat overpriced.

If Bonner's 180 is valid, anything could happen.

I would expect October to be a month when expectations are recomputed in earnest, compressing the employment fizzle and GM troubles into a sadly reduced present-value of most sectors' future earnings. Until now, hope has overcome reality.

Kind of prophetic: The Audacity of Hope.

On top of everything, the people have become very dumb, like all the failed thieving financial blunderers let loose.

As I said in another thread in Bottom Line, the 180 came from the Wall Street Journal. I don't have an online subscription so I don't believe I can view the original. That being said, I expect that sometime in October 2009 the DJIA will break through 10,000. I can't predict whether it will stay above that mark but I suspect that the volatility inherent in a speculator driven market will take it there, just as oil was taken to almost 150. Very large entities (the folks we recently bailed out and their ilk) are shooting craps with the stock market. Normal market analysis, based on production rates, cost, profit, employment, and the like don't stand up against the forces of gambling. I bought A123 eight days ago, following the IPO, and it has risen 46% since in a decidedly down market. It doesn't have much public history and should be treated with suspicion for a while, yet the price is ballooning - market games!

after all the losses.

I doubt that gamblers' exuberance will overcome earnings reports much longer. Then there's GDP and unemployment and The Con-Board's Con Report.

Sell! Even if DOW hits your 10,000 -- little gain over 9500 -- but tremendous downside.