How often do we have to state the counterargument?
by
auros
09/29/2009, 10:03 PM #
If the value of a vote is, as Landsburg claimed, zero, then the value of a bloc of 100 votes is also zero, both because zero times 100 (or anything else) is still zero, and because in a large population, it's "unlikely" that the outcome of a vote will be within one hundred votes. And you can extend this argument pretty far before the latter issues goes away.
It makes much more sense to view the value of a vote as being the total value of the election, divided by the margin. It is not only the final deciding vote that matters; every voter who helps put their candidate in the victorious position has contributed equally. So in an election decided by 50,000 votes, and you value the outcome of the election at $100B, each vote was worth $2M.
If you believe the outcome of an election is very valuable -- if you think, for instance, that President Gore would not have wasted trillions of dollars in the sands of Iraq, would not have squandered another decade doing nothing about the threat of global warming, and so on -- then even if you follow Landsburg's idiotic methodology, a minute chance of being the deciding vote may be very valuable indeed. After the fact, you may say to yourself, "Well, we won by 50,000 votes, there was no need for me to go out to vote," but before the election, the expected value of your vote is quite high. And if you go with the more sensible "divide by the margin" approach, your vote is probably the most valuable thing you own.