I lived in Japan for a while during 2005-6, and am still in a relationship with a Japanese woman I met during that time. While I was in Japan, the topic of their terribly-low birthrate (approximately 1.4 children per woman) came up a number of times both in friendly discussion and in their mass media.

I must say that a little government-sponsored speed-dating isn't going to solve their problems, which are:

1: Japanese men are still, in general, sexist pigs. Think 1950's America.

2: Raising children is much more expensive than in the US.

Women in Japan, even smart, educated ones, are unfortunately given a horrible choice between career and family. It is very difficult to juggle the two, and to a large degree, companies won't even give women positions of responsibility (and high pay) in the first place, on the presumption that they will just quit their job in a few years to get married and have kids. Of course, this leads to a viscious circle, as the women given crappy, low-paying jobs that they are over-qualified for often DO quit their job when they have children precisely because the pay is low. Many young women in Japan have basically eschewed the idea of getting married and focused on their career (however stunted it is due to the sexism), resulting in large numbers of women with no children. This is made worse by the fact that most single women live with their parents until they get married, resulting in lots of young women becoming rather parasitic, enjoying the free rent and food, and spending their crappy wages on nothing but fun, travel and fashion. All of a sudden, they are 35, and realize that it might be too late to have kids even if they wanted to.

Combined with the fact that it is incredibly expensive to raise children in Japan because of the high cost of living and the private "after school" schools most children attend in order to prepare for exams, the large number of childless women results in a very low birth rate. Lots of zeros, quite a few ones, some twos....but almost no threes or fours to offset the low numbers. Indeed, I can think of only one person I met under 40 with more than one sibling in nearly two years.

Japan will need to make some very fundamental changes in order to stem its population decline, starting with the rampant sexism that still pervades their society.

Sakura described some of the problems that women encounter in Japan, which lower the birthrate. Most of the problems he (or she) listed are real, but this is not:

"Combined with the fact that it is incredibly expensive to raise children in Japan because of the high cost of living and the private "after school" schools most children attend in order to prepare for exams . . ."

It is not usually expensive to raise children in Japan. I have many Japanese friends who raised children without any great sacrifice. I suppose it might cost a lot if the mother must quit her job or if you insist on the most expensive cram-schools, but most parents do not go to such extremes.

Only about half of the children go to cram schools, and the schools cost 423,000 yen ($4,067) to 589,000 yen ($5,663) per year. This is not a huge burden for middle class people. See:

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It is MUCH more expensive for a middle class person to raise children in the U.S. if the children are lucky enough to go to first-class, out-of-state universities. In Japan, the top universities are national universities, and the tuition is nominal. (In the 1970s it was about $1,000 per year as I recall.) In the U.S., the-notch universities charge middle-class families $30,000 to $40,000 per year.

Also, Japan has national health coverage which costs only a nominal amount for treatment, whereas the average middle class U.S. family pays hundreds of dollars a month for their children's health insurance. Even with insurance, any serious pediatric medical problem in the U.S. is terribly expensive, whereas it costs nothing in Japan. I know many Japanese people, including children, who have been hospitalized for severe conditions. Three of my friends died of cancer in recent years. The medical expenses were a few thousand dollars. In the U.S., one-fourth of the uninsured families of cancer patients are bankrupted by medical expenses, as are one-fifth of the insured families. This outcome is inconceivable in Japan. In the U.S. conservatives resist any effort to provide national health insurance, whereas P.M. Abe and the other conservative members of the LDP refer to the health care system as the "crown jewel of our social welfare system"

(Note on sources: sorry, I can't cite any. I translate Japanese into English. I watch the Japanese NHK television nightly news, and I read Japanese newspapers. Abe's comment about the "crown jewel" was from a recent debate in the Diet.)

I described Sakura as "he (or she)." That is either a snide comment or open minded. Sakura is a female name, but this person reports a "relationship" with a Japanese woman, but then again women can have relationships with women.

Anyway, if Sakura is a he perhaps he should reconsider his screen-name, unless he enjoys a hint of sexual ambiguity. And why not?

Jed:

Just with respect to Juku (after school school), I am surprised that you don' think that an additional burden of $4000-5000 per student during middle and high school wouldn't deter quite a few parents from having a second or third child. No, Juku is not necessary, but it darned near is if you plan to go to college. How many American parents would deny their children that chance?

Additionally, food, clothing and housing are much significantly expensive in Japan than in most of the US, from my experience.

As for universities, taxes are higher and tuition is lower for undergraduates. Strangely enough, however, it is more expensive for many graduate students, who in the US receive stipends plus free tuition in many fields, but in Japan often PAY tuition and receive a much smaller stipend. The 30-40k price you cited is a sticker price that is not charged to anyone in the middle class. Having attended a highly-ranked university in both countries (two that are essentially tied in world rankings), I think the biggest difference was in terms of facilities. The buildings, infrastructure, and general aesthetics of the major American universities I attended were far beyond the one attended in Japan. The people and research were top notch on both sides of the water. For good for ill, there is a lot more money going into American univerities than those in Japan. This is partially because of private donations, which are not so common there, but also because of government policy differences.

As for health care, in Japan, it is simply deducted from your paycheck like any other tax. I was actually surprised how large that deduction was the first time I received a paycheck there. It was not far smaller than what is deducted here for my private insurance.

Sakura wrote:

"Just with respect to Juku (after school school), I am surprised that you don' think that an additional burden of $4000-5000 per student during middle and high school wouldn't deter quite a few parents from having a second or third child."

I think 2 or 3 years of juku is more normal. Middle class families can afford $8,000 to $15,000 per child, especially since college is so cheap.

"No, Juku is not necessary, but it darned near is if you plan to go to college."

I know lots of young people who got into college without juku. For that matter, I know lots of American kids who never satisfied the volunteering and membership things colleges supposedly look for. (My youngest child just graduated from college, so I know the drill.

"Additionally, food, clothing and housing are much significantly expensive in Japan than in most of the US, from my experience."

True. The Japanese spend ~20% of their income on food, the same as the Italians, Germans and Swiss, compared to 8% in the U.S. Japanese and European customers have higher standards and they are willing to pay more for food. Their food is much tastier and of better quality than U.S. standards. See:

<link>

"As for universities, taxes are higher and tuition is lower for undergraduates. Strangely enough, however, it is more expensive for many graduate students . . ."

I noticed that! By the way, the ref I cited above says, "In 1990, for example, the average annual tuition for national universities was 293,600 yen ($2,823), for public universities 306,400 yen ($2,946), and for private universities 605,000 yen ($5,817)(Monbusho 1993a)." That seems kind of low, but that was what it was back in the '70s, and there has not been much inflation in Japan.

"I think the biggest difference was in terms of facilities. The buildings, infrastructure, and general aesthetics of the major American universities I attended were far beyond the one attended in Japan."

You are too kind. I have been to many Japanese national universities I never saw one that was not a dump. The woman's dorm at Okayama was a converted pre-war horse stable until it burned to the ground. The entire engineering dept. at Hokkaido U. is so dangerous they condemned the building and they were supposed to tear it down this summer but I have heard they have found so much radioactive garbage in Nuc. Eng. they can't touch the place.

"As for health care, in Japan, it is simply deducted from your paycheck like any other tax. I was actually surprised how large that deduction was the first time I received a paycheck there. It was not far smaller than what is deducted here for my private insurance."

The total fraction of the national GDP devoted to health care is 3 times higher in the U.S. The money has to come from somewhere. In any case, the insurance premiums are not what bankrupts families in the U.S. It is the cost of treatment not covered by insurance, and the fact that poor people often delay treatment until the condition is critical.

Of course there are many other critical differences, such as levels of obesity. That goes back to food choices. Italians and Japanese people pay twice as much of their income for food, but the food is fresh, wholesome and delicious, and it seldom makes you obese. I myself would much rather spend money on fresh veggies than diabetes.

As you rightly pointed out in the first message however, Japan has many crucial social problems. That's why they have a minister for declining birthrates (shoushika) and we don't.