Larry:
Your point about smiling and then shooting is less relevant today. Things were certainly that way in the Sunni areas last year. This year, the shooting is mostly gone there. The next test will be what happens as we redeploy from those areas to hotter spots. Will AQI reemerge or will the peace hold?
The people and article we're discussing here weren't based in the Sunni Triangle. The dateline on their article was from Baghdad. The people who were smiling and shooting at them -- in August -- were not Sunnis. They were members of the Iraqi Army the soldiers were told to partner with and train, which consists largely of Shiites.
Like Petraeus, you'd rather focus on the one place we're seeing some new cooperation against a common enemy. But that doesn't change that the people these guys were working to help and save are mostly Shiite members of an American-armed "army" loyal more to Sadr or whatever other militia than to the central government, or what supposedly passes for one.
I'm sure there are happy .mil bloggers out there, especially in Sunni areas where their earlier enemies and killers have switched sides. Like Petraeus said, it's all about where you're at and who you're working with.
Hagel's larger strategic point, and that of these soldiers in the NY Times, is that however well we can convince a bunch of outnumbered Sunni insurgents to turn against a more fundamentalist Al-Quaeda subset of their own movement, in the end all we're doing is arming the Sunnis for the larger battle against the Shiite government or militias. We're arming both sides, and if your sources say that one of those sides has stopped trying to kill our people, that's to the good, though I do wonder how long this truce will hold once the Jihadi creeps are purged.
According to these soldiers, the Iraqi army is quiet only when you're looking them in the eye. They then turn around and blow you up. This might be part of why the Sunnis have been so reluctant to join the army, except in the areas where *they* will be the majority of the troops.
The people of Iraq are not coming together and we're stuck in the middle and arming both sides. It's great that the Sunni Triangle hates AQ and fears the Shiite militias enough to quiet down their hatred of us for the time being. But again, strategically, where the hell are we? Nowhere.
Here's what I'm referring to from the original Op-Ed. Note that they are not in Tikrit or Ramadi, and they are not working with Sunni tribes, rather Iraqi Army. They wrote about the futility of propping up a two-faced government, and they were writing about last month.
"A few nights ago, for example, we witnessed the death of one American soldier and the critical wounding of two others when a lethal armor-piercing explosive was detonated between an Iraqi Army checkpoint and a police one. Local Iraqis readily testified to American investigators that Iraqi police and Army officers escorted the triggermen and helped plant the bomb. These civilians highlighted their own predicament: had they informed the Americans of the bomb before the incident, the Iraqi Army, the police or the local Shiite militia would have killed their families.
As many grunts will tell you, this is a near-routine event. Reports that a majority of Iraqi Army commanders are now reliable partners can be considered only misleading rhetoric. The truth is that battalion commanders, even if well meaning, have little to no influence over the thousands of obstinate men under them, in an incoherent chain of command, who are really loyal only to their militias."