Consumer spending can not sustain a strong economy
by
kgsbca
09/07/2007, 3:27 PM #
If the wealthy are going to "save" our economy, it will have to come from investing, not consumption. And by investing, I specifically don't mean speculating, which is what most self-described "investors" do.
Artificially low interest rates during the first half of this decade helped drive increases in consumer spending, as it raised values of homes (and enabled loans against those increased valuations) and lowered the cost of financing big ticket spending. However, while this spending orgy was happening, our trade deficit kept increasing also. That meant that as a nation we were financing this spree by either borrowing or selling off assets. Neither action is good for the long term health of the economy. if you sell income-producing assets, you lose future income. If you borrow to buy a bigger house, a new car, a TV, or just to pay for the new gadgets, it becomes a one-time thing, unless you find a way to increase your income. And, as recently published statistics have demonstrated, individual income has been declining, not increasing, over the last several years.
When individuals and corporations invest in new businesses, training, more efficient and productive equipment, more jobs are created and incomes rise. While many people attribute the strong economy of the last decade to the dot com "bubble", it wasn't the Internet that led to the creation of millions of new jobs, it was the investments that people made that created new jobs. We have a huge opportunity now to ignite a boom that would make the bubble of the 90s look like a series of lemonade stands. It starts with energy, but includes transportation, communications, and education. Investing in these areas will not only create jobs, but reduce our dependency on imported oil (and thereby reduce the flow of dollars out of the country), and build a platform for sustainable economic growth that benefits all income classes.
If all of the wealthy individuals spent all of their money on consumer items, it would provide a great spike in the economy, and temporary income redistribution. But when the checkbooks run dry, the party would be over, and people in China and Japan and Saudi Arabia and Europe would own everything. Consumption is no way to drive an economy. It all starts with investment.