Recession: The Newspaper Definition
The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.
This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons. First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.
Recession: The BCDC Definition
The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.
The U.S. is Halfway to a Recession
Thursday October 30, 2008
According to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.8 percent.
The standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP. We will know by the end of January whether or not the U.S. is 'officially' in a recession.
That being said, I think the media gets a little too caught up in the "is it, or isn't it?" question. Had, instead, real GDP instead rose at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008 then we wouldn't meet the first part of the recession criteria. But there is not a great deal of difference between a 0.3 percent rise and a 0.3 percent fall, given that both are not statistically different than zero and either figure would indicate that the economy is quite weak.
If there is anything more I can help you with, please let me know.