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Is the GOP dead?
by Schmutzie

In the August issue of Vanity Fair, Todd Purdum does a bit of a hatchet job on Sarah Palin.

I was looking forward to reading Purdum's piece, expecting some serious analysis of the Palin phenomenon, and an exploration of how she fits into the future of the party leadership. Instead, Purdom rehashes the old beefs about her being a Prima Donna, her Baracuda nature when confronted by objectors, her unwillingness to be coached in the run-up to interviews ..and prior to her debate with Biden, and her Troopergate involvement.

Purdum quotes Walter Hickel, who helped Palin get elected governor of Alaska in 2006 as saying "I don't give a damn what she does" and mentions Palin's disloyalty (my word) to John Stein, another guy who helped her when she was a fledgling politician.

That's not exactly a unique Palin characteristic though. Many politicians have parted company with former friends in the arena, simply for political reasons. And there are many politicians, our present president included, who have put differences aside and allied themselves with people they dislike intensely. That's just politics.

There are several mentions of her willingness to lie, and her ability to play both sides of the fence when discussing things like Bridges to Nowhere (which she was for before she was against) and $900million in stimulus money for Alaska (which she badmouthed, prior to accepting all but $28million.)

Nothing really new there either.

Purdom spoke to several McCain campaign staffers whose eye-rolling could be felt in their remarks about Palin. I found myself wondering, if there was such a visceral dislike for Palin in the McCain camp, who in the name of god convinced McCain to choose the Alaska governor in the first place?

I personally found Governor Palin to be a novelty VP choice by McCain, and didn't (still don't ) understand what all the fuss was about. Purdum wonders if Palin would have captured anyone's interest if "she looked like Susan Boyle." A very cheap shot I think.

Palin is pretty, and possesses obvious intellect, but an intellect that is limited to issues that the Governor sees as important to her. She was not, is not, and will not ever be ready to serve as a national office holder. It's one thing to be able to excite a bunch of people at a pro-life rally in Evansville, Indiana...something entirely different to appeal to a rapidly growing wave of voters who consider themselves centrists.

Sarah Palin has zero chance in 2012 of carrying New York, Illinois, California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota,.. perhaps even Florida. John McCain is much more centrist than Sarah Palin, and McCain lost all of those states to Obama.

Does the GOP actually think that the party needs to move even further to the right? McCain was as close to a moderate as the GOP could manage this time around, and if they hope to have a prayer in 2012, they'll need someone with even broader appeal to the middle.

That is not Sarah Palin.

Palin was able to energize an otherwise depressed base in '08, and can be credited with making the race interesting toward the end, but the collapse of the economy spelled McCain's doom. I wondered prior to Wall Street's meltdown if Mitt Romney, a skilled businessman and successful governor would have been a wiser choice of running mate for McCain, and I'm sure given the benefit of a crystal ball McCain would have picked someone (probably Romney) with real demonstrable management skills.

But, politicians can't predict the future. McCain's Hail Mary pass was able to momentarily stop the GOP bleeding, but upon closer examination, and despite efforts by campaign management to shelter her, Sarah Palin was ultimately exposed as a political lightweight, at least on a national level. Nobody thought John McCain, or Sarah Palin, could solve the nation's financial crisis, nor even offer up sound ideas for leading the US to financial recovery. More tax cuts for the rich? That's not a popular view at the moment, nor does it seem like a tax policy that will return to popularity anytime soon.

Which is I'm mystified that the Republicans still see Palin as one of the faces of the future of the party. Her (McCain) handlers were able to keep her many shortcomings hidden for a short period, were able to carefully craft her exposure, but if they plan on nominating her for president in 2012, the klieg lights will only get brighter, and for a much longer period.

Pro-life, pro-guns, and pro-creation (if you'll pardon the pun) may be the core issues for people like Sarah Palin and our resident BotF knuckle draggers, but they are not the critical issues to most Americans, which is why Obama got 9 million more votes than anyone in the history of American presidential elections.

365-173 was the final tally of the electoral college in 2008. If the GOP hopes to make a dent in that shortfall, they'll need to appeal to middle America. Purdum does very little analysis of that problem facing the Republicans, choosing instead to mock Palin about things we already know.

McCain's people are very willing to trash Palin, but, like Purdum, for all the wrong reasons. All politicians are ruthless double-dealing Prima Donnas. If Republicans have any political savvy left in the party, and that looks doubtful, they'll stop slamming Palin, quit flipping around trying to decide who the real party leader is, and formulate a plan to recapture the votes of the middle third.

The GOP needs to soften their positions on the issues on which Sarah Palin remains rigid if they hope to have a chance in the forseeable future. The GOP should not see Sarah Palin as the fresh new face of the party, not because of Troopergate or wardrobe extravagances, not because she has a weird family, but because, based on the zeitgeist in America, she has no chance of getting elected. She's too far to the right, at a time when the hard right politician is becoming an endangered species.

I'm not sure if the GOP is dead, but they're currently acting like they haven't got a clue.

Re: Is the GOP dead?
by Cooler Heads

Not legally dead.

Comatose and on life support? Yes.

But not dead. Not yet.

Re: restructured into the Democratic Republican Party
by lilmacg
  1. H. J. Res. 42: Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the ...A resolution in the US Congress: Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States relating to parental rights.
    www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=hj111-42 - Cached - Similar
  2. -



  3. H. J. Res. 42 [109th]: Proposing an amendment to the Constitution ...A resolution in the US Congress: Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to permit persons who are not natural-born citizens of the ...
    www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=hj109-42 - Cached - Similar -

Cosponsors [as of 2009-06-27]Rep. John Kline [R-MN2]Rep. Jeff Miller [R-FL1]Rep. Lynn Westmoreland [R-GA3]Rep. Jeffrey Fortenberry [R-NE1]Rep. Samuel Johnson [R-TX3]Rep. Rodney Alexander [R-LA5]Rep. John Carter [R-TX31]Rep. Roscoe Bartlett [R-MD6]Rep. Roy Blunt [R-MO7]Rep. Dean Heller [R-NV2]Rep. Erik Paulsen [R-MN3]Rep. Peter Sessions [R-TX32]Rep. Bill Posey [R-FL15]Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers [R-WA5]Rep. Eric Cantor [R-VA7]Rep. Steve King [R-IA5]Rep. Paul Broun [R-GA10]Rep. Nathan Deal [R-GA9]Rep. Ken Calvert [R-CA44]Rep. Gregg Harper [R-MS3]Rep. Samuel Graves [R-MO6]Rep. Michele Bachmann [R-MN6]Rep. Tom Price [R-GA6]Rep. Michael Conaway [R-TX11]Rep. Walter Jones [R-NC3]Rep. John Culberson [R-TX7]Rep. George Radanovich [R-CA19]Rep. Lee Terry [R-NE2]Rep. Greg Walden [R-OR2]Rep. Joseph Pitts [R-PA16]Rep. Jeb Hensarling [R-TX5]Rep. John Shadegg [R-AZ3]Rep. Brett Guthrie [R-KY2]Rep. Michael Turner [R-OH3]Rep. Pete Olson [R-TX22]Rep. John Gingrey [R-GA11]Rep. Mark Souder [R-IN3]Rep. Cynthia Lummis [R-WY]Rep. David Camp [R-MI4]Rep. Kevin McCarthy [R-CA22]Rep. John Boehner [R-OH8]Rep. Randy Neugebauer [R-TX19]Rep. Edward Royce [R-CA40]Rep. Howard McKeon [R-CA25]Rep. Jean Schmidt [R-OH2]Rep. Geoff Davis [R-KY4]Rep. Jerry Moran [R-KS1]Rep. Patrick Mchenry [R-NC10]Rep. Devin Nunes [R-CA21]Rep. Robert Goodlatte [R-VA6]Rep. Mary Fallin [R-OK5]Rep. Frank Lucas [R-OK3]Rep. John Fleming [R-LA4]Rep. Mike McIntyre [D-NC7]Rep. Zach Wamp [R-TN3]Rep. Vern Buchanan [R-FL13]Rep. Doc Hastings [R-WA4]Rep. Todd Akin [R-MO2]Rep. Daniel Lungren [R-CA3]Rep. Jack Kingston [R-GA1]Rep. Darrell Issa [R-CA49]Rep. Robert Latta [R-OH5]Rep. Tom Cole [R-OK4]Rep. Walter Herger [R-CA2]Rep. Joe Barton [R-TX6]Rep. John Duncan [R-TN2]Rep. Henry Brown [R-SC1]Rep. Thaddeus McCotter [R-MI11]Rep. James Barrett [R-SC3]Rep. John Boozman [R-AR3]Rep. Marsha Blackburn [R-TN7]Rep. Patrick Tiberi [R-OH12]Rep. Mike Pence [R-IN6]Rep. Louis Gohmert [R-TX1]Rep. Michael Burgess [R-TX26]Rep. Thomas Rooney [R-FL16]Rep. Edward Whitfield [R-KY1]Rep. John McHugh [R-NY23]Rep. Kevin Brady [R-TX8]Rep. Rob Bishop [R-UT1]Rep. Charles Boustany [R-LA7]Rep. Addison Wilson [R-SC2]Rep. Todd Tiahrt [R-KS4]Rep. Michael McCaul [R-TX10]Rep. Sue Myrick [R-NC9]Rep. Tim Murphy [R-PA18]Rep. Dan Burton [R-IN5]Rep. Steve Scalise [R-LA1]Rep. Tom McClintock [R-CA4]Rep. Trent Franks [R-AZ2]Rep. John Shimkus [R-IL19]Rep. Jim Jordan [R-OH4]Rep. Duncan Hunter [R-CA52]Rep. Todd Platts [R-PA19]Rep. Michael Rogers [R-AL3]Rep. John Campbell [R-CA48]Rep. Spencer Bachus [R-AL6]Rep. Frank Wolf [R-VA10]Rep. Doug Lamborn [R-CO5]Rep. John Sullivan [R-OK1]Rep. Rob Wittman [R-VA1]Rep. Donald Manzullo [R-IL16]Rep. Kenny Marchant [R-TX24]
Bring out yer Dead
by ducadmo

You don't know much about the afterlife now, do ya? Why, the governor of South Carolina had at least a couple of high-res-erections just the other week.

Since Jerry died, Dead doesn't mean what it used to mean, and for that I am Grateful.

It's Palin in aught 12, she's the front-runner in Runners' World, but so? Congress. That's where the action is.

Re: Bring out yer Dead
by Schmutzie

I can't see her getting the GOP nomination, if the party leaders have 2 IQ pts to rub together. They'd be absolutely crazy to nominate a strong pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cuts for the rich, creationist.

She has no chance at the White House.

Re: I wish I could be so confident
by Lono

What chance would you have given Commander Flightsuit in 1996?

Yes, the Lightweight Media has once again lost sight of the real problems with Palin and instead decided to focus on trivialities and sex...which plays right into the "she's unfairly treated by the librul media" meme that will help her far more than it hurts her.

Your whole analysis is off
by Fritz Gerlich

because you fail to consider that, in three years, Obama will no longer be Golden Boy. Like any incumbent, he will have his own record of failures and popular discontent will have had time to build. This is what Palin and her advisors get that those who write off the Republican party aren't getting. Moreover, even if Obama still has enough popularity to beat her in 2012, Palin still has 2016 to shoot for.

You also don't seem to understand that the more people like Purdum pillory Palin, the more popular she becomes in what is, for now, her target demographic. In other words: liberal scorn positively advances her cause. Palin's long-term strategy is quite obvious: first, build the base; then, as the election approaches, gradually moderate and shift toward the center. By then, every credible competitor for her base will have been finished off and all those tens of millions of red state voters won't have anywhere else to go. They may not even like the "new Palin," but they'll vote for her anyway because there is no alternative. Palin's job at that point becomes relatively simple: appeal to disaffection with the (then) state of affairs. Promise the moon. Avoid hot-button issues. Be moderate, flexible, statesmanlike. Depending on what's happened in the preceding four years, Obama may by then be forced into a McCain-like split, trying to shore up his base on the one hand and still compete for the center on the other. Palin, if she plays her cards right, won't have that dilemma: she will own her base outright. It will make her, tactically, the stronger candidate.


Snowballs chance of that happening
by mom
"...because there is no alternative. Palin's job at that point becomes relatively simple: appeal to disaffection with the (then) state of affairs. Promise the moon. Avoid hot-button issues."

And you said it all here:

"...there is no alternative."

IOW, as of this moment, the GOP is dead because there is no alternative to Palin, and Palin will not be able to do any of the things you stated above.
Think what you wish.
by Fritz Gerlich

I don't know Palin personally, but I've discussed her with several people who do. I know her lieutenant governor personally. I've had a ringside seat to their administration. What you, like most, fail to understand is that Palin is not about ideology at all. She's about herself. She can turn ideology on and off, as best suits her tactical needs. And she's clever enough to do it in ways that will lock in her gains and still allow her to make a strong appeal to those who, by 2012, will feel that the Obama years have not been good for them. And if you think there won't be discontent after 3-4 years of 10% unemployment, you're being foolish.

Re: Think what you wish.
by mom
Can you really understand what she says? She's like some drug addicts I've known whose thoughts are like those proverbial cats that you can't herd for the life of you. They just fly all over the place. And she's obviously very flappable. Piss her off, and I guarantee you, she will show her true "self." If she alienates the big dogs in the GOP, who will rein her in when she goes off the track?
Re: Your whole analysis is off
by Schmutzie

Palin's job at that point becomes relatively simple: appeal to disaffection with the (then) state of affairs. Promise the moon. Avoid hot-button issues. Be moderate, flexible, statesmanlike.

Are we talking about the same Sarah Palin?

She's going to run an entire presidential campaign without addressing hot-button issues?

Moderate?

Flexible?

She may be able to dodge the tough issues for awhile, but she has no chance of appearing moderate.

And statesmanlike?

You gotta be kidding me.

No [eom]
by Urquhart

When something seems overwhelmingly obvious in politics,
by Fritz Gerlich

your first instinct should be to wonder what you're not seeing. In your case, you're not seeing that Obama is sailing straight into the teeth of a hurricane, you're not seeing that in 2012 the electorate won't remember anything about the Bush fiasco and they won't forgive what they will see as Obama's "failure," and you're not seeing that Palin has 3+ years to build her image, her organization, her following, while slowly, relentlessly dribbling acid on the president. You're not seeing that Palin is a superb political chameleon whose color-changing will fascinate voters rather than alienate them. With her hands untied from actual political responsibility, she will become an even more spectacular political personality than she already is. The media will have no choice but to play her. Like all politicians, she must depend to some extent on luck. But her political skills are such that, with only moderate luck, she's going to be a serious contender--a person who, a mere 10 months ago, was almost totally unknown outside her politically unimportant state! If that isn't ominous, I don't know what is.



Re: No [eom]
by Schmutzie

Pfui.

No leadership. No up and comers. No unity.

The GOP is in very deep trouble.

"Alienates the big dogs in the GOP"?
by Fritz Gerlich
They're already whining and groveling. Sarah's their alpha, and they know it. I grant that a vaguely liberal "wing" of the party doesn't like her and may not accept her. But they're such a small slice that they'll have little choice but to defect. Skilled political operatives could even use that to her advantage--and by then, Sarah will have the very best in her corner. This decision today, to resign, tells me that she already has somebody very subtle and far-seeing working for her.
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