Anne Applebaum always runs a bit on the paranoid side, but this is beyond the pale.

Sure, in the world of James Bond countries can operate like this. Exerting full control over their satellite nations and using them like agile pawns. But North Korea is a terrible example of this. Is Anne really going to argue that NK is a rational state, responding in equal reaction to China's actions/requests? Does she really think China is willing to tacitly endorse its crazy neighbor's nuclear weapon stockpile just to "test Obama?"

(And speaking of which, this whole "testing" of a president theme has really been played out. No world leader is seriously thinking about international relations in such middle-school terms)

Anne is trying to say, "well, contrary to the popular narrative that North Korea is a crazy country who's latest stage of wigging-out might finally push China to reign them in, the situation is actually the complete opposite of what it seems." Well, I say, No Anne, I'm not going to sign on to this theory of yours which you yourself admit is completely devoid of evidence. The common narrative says that North Korea is crazy? I'm going with the common narrative on this one.

China has nothing to gain from such a ridiculous gamble. Of course they still prop up the NK regime, but they do so largely because the short-term problems of its collapse and a "victory" for US policy appear to outweigh the long term benefits of regional stability. No sane US president would assume what you think in approaching this situation - they should assume the most logical, evidence-laden explanation is correct. And that is that this situation offers a chance for closer cooperation with China on NK, with the understanding that a nuclear-toting dictator on their doorstep is not in their interest.

Save it for the paperback, Anne.

The Koreans have a long and lusty history of instransigence and national identity all of their own, with the national legends, scars and bruises to back it up. It does not need prompting from China to take a threatening posture.

Nor is there much resemblance at this point between what passes for Communism in North Korea and what passes for it in China. The two movements have diverged ideologically and pragmatically, until they scarcely resemble each other at all. They are not "brothers in arms against the Capitalist warmongerers." To the contrary; China has branded its own form of capitalism, a form very different from that seen in the West, and is on track to creat a regional economic hegemony. North Korea has done no such thing.

But we cannot quite escape this fact. China is the 800-lb gorilla in that part of the world, and without at least some commerce from China, North Korea will collapse. China does have influence.

China also plays a very long game. They are Machiavellian, but with the patience of Job.

What are their strategic goals? Economic regional domination is certainly one of them. Improving their standard of living is another. Securing resources and living space for their ever-expanding population is another.

They can't do those things if they are confined to their current patch of soil. Their population is up to 1.2 billion and still rising. The glaciers which feed their rivers are going away. Climate change is likely to produce some serious problems for China. Overpopulation already does.

The truth is that Taiwan and the Spratleys - which are, on the surface, the targets of their diplomatic and military intrigues - are irrelevant to their needs. Drops in the bucket. Yet they never cease to make noises as though these were the most important things in the universe.

Sun-Tsu would have got it. Distract the enemy; keep him from understanding your goals.

There are really only two options open to China for securing their long-range interests. One is to follow Japan's example and attempt to stitch together a pan-Pacific empire, with all the advantages that would accrue from controlling the Pacific. The downsides? The Pacific is already heavily populated, and the Pacific is a US lake. Admittedly, the US is overextended and has made some poor choices. It's now a debtor nation and in decline. Patience may yet deliver into their hands the Pacific.

But the real prize is Siberia.

In the race to the bottom, the Russians have a good head start over the US. They've already lost part of their empire. What remains is a poorly-glued conglomeration of ethnicities who have never been particularly happy about the Russian yoke. Russia is fragile. A good hard tap might send it spiraling down into civil war.

If a Russian civil war plays out right, Siberia could be up for grabs. Alliances with factions are possible, and so is the chance that the international community would welcome Chinese intervention to grab loose nukes. Nobody likes to contemplate a Russian civil war with loose nukes wandering the countryside. The result could be China squatting on Siberia and moving hundreds of millions in to colonize it.

Siberia has what China needs. Land, much of it quite fertile. A low population density. Minerals and petroleum largely left untapped by the Russians. It's perfect, if they can get their hands on it.

So they wait. Build up their economic and military strength. And keep us distracted, worried about things that do not matter in the least.

I do not think China controls North Korea. But I do not doubt their influence. The noise North Korea is making plays to China's strategic advantage by keeping us focused on unimportant things.

I'm sorry, but not even the Chinese are "stupid" enough to think that Siberia is inhabitable enough to house whatever population "excesses" they have. That is just as stupid as the speculation in the article, and just taking the article to another level. If Russia will only send its prisoners there to punish them, why would the Chinese want to rule over Siberia and force its own citizens there? It's got enough human rights issues to squash currently. They're not gonna add yet another huge "Tibet" to their already-loaded agenda.

The CCP is not this stupid, and the western paranoia that exists out there needs to stop thinking that the CCP is this stupid. They know that even though they have the PEOPLE in the PLA to fight a big war, that's not how wars are fought nowadays, especially with the country with the biggest nuclear arsenal in the entire world by far and the only country thus far to have used nuclear weapons during wartime...against a neighboring country, no less (U.S., of course).

My god, this article and these types of responses show you just how warped a view Westerners now have of China, still regarding it as "the sick man" of Asia. Better keep an eye on those slanty-eyed people in the only Asian country that we don't have direct political influence and control! Not until we're writing their national constitution and dictating that they're not allowed to build up their own armies while positioning thousands of our own troops there be some level of "comfort" with China.

The economic ties with the United States alone (the U.S. already owing well over a trillion dollars to the Chinese!) makes this article and speculation beyond absurd.

I the choice is between being the preeminent military and political power on the Asian rim, or owning a big chunk of siberian real estate, any country with half a brain will chose the former. And thats what China has been doing - pursuing the most obvious goal that would yield the greatest return.

Land-grabs for the purpose of population expansion are an outdated concept. Countries are still interested in owning new territory for resources, but the most potent resource today is people. Having political influence over the economies and militaries of neighboring countries is the biggest prize any nation can get. China wants to slowly supplant U.S. influence and replace it with a purely Chinese hegemony in the east.

Can you blame them? They have more at stake in the area than the USA does.

Military Hegemony?

... or y'know, economic development...

I don't blame China for wanting more influence in their own neighborhood. There's nothing irrational about that. And military hegemony and economic development are not mutually exclusive; China has smartly used economic ties to deepen relations with its neighbors, even while it expands its military capabilities.

I'm not overly alarmist about China. I certainly don't think they are trying to destabalize the region. Quite the opposite actually.

Its inevetable that China will exert more control than it does today in Asia. But its not inevetable that the US exert less, or that our interests need to conflict especially badly. As long as we use our current position their to promote international law, stability, and human rights, then China will rise into an international system that is more cooperative and accountable. The key thing is not to overstretch or be too arrogant about it.

But really, both the Economic crisis and North Korea should be (and probably is) bringing us closer together than pushing us apart. We both like money. We both dislike uncontrollable smaller states. Neither of us want to see an arms race in East Asia (According to Anne, such a nuclear race is China's goal??). China has become a "status-quo" nation which benefits more from things going about their regular course. They have nothing to gain from an outbreak of violence in the region, and they have a cool and calculating enough group of leaders to realize that.

We just need to make sure that we're consistently talking to them mano-a-mano, and playing the best balancing act between friendly trading partner and regional policeman (not a perjorative) that we can.

Many people here are lost. Ana is right in some points.

North Korea is to China what Israel is to USA. And China is looking forward of becoming the next empire. If you don't believe this, then you are missing the main point.

USA owes China almost 3 trillion (not 1 trillion), and China knows that US is totally broken, so Chine is just waiting for the fall.

Visit: www.canadaempleos21.com and read this article

"Is the World in the Eve of Destruction" to see things clearer.

Agent, you're thinking is just messed up. North Korea is to China as Israel is to the US? The Main Point? I'll gladly "miss" that. What a ridiculous, paranoid oversimplification of the issues.

The US owes china money, and the owe us nothing? Oh sure, as if the US consumer economy isn't the entire basis for China's economy. We are more closely linked and economically dependent on China than any two countries of our power have ever been.

You aren't just wrong, you are talking about the exact opposite of reality.