There is a condition which causes healthy, newborn babies to suddenly die in their sleep. It has no diagnosis, before or after. One in 8,000 or so infants die this way. It is very rare.

Assuming that the problem strikes infants randomly, the probability that both of a family's first two children will die this way is less than 1 in 60 million.

Nevertheless, this is exactly what happened to a couple a few years ago. The mother's behavior was a little odd at the time, and one of the kids had some bruise marks which the defense said resulted from attempted resusciation. But beyond weak circumstantial evidence, the main thing against her was the miniscule chance that this sort of thing would happen by accident. 1 in 60 million!

She was charged with murder.

Do you think it is just to convict her if the information given above is corroborated?

no helpful diagnostic information about the affliction exists at all, or that a potential genetic predisposition has been affirmatively ruled out?

...any lawyer that allows her to be convicted without more evidence is incompetent. The "evidence" only works if the deaths are truly due to some sort of chance event. All one would have to do is say the phrase "genetic predisposition that hasn't been discovered yet."

How do you get to Carnegie Hall? Practise.

No. Miniscule odds does not mean it could never happen. Some form of evidence of abuse beyond bruising (that could be resuscitation efforts) would be necessary to convict for murder.

I’d hate to think such a serious charge could yield a conviction on a statistical anomaly. I’d err on side of caution.

in 120 million births this will happen twice?

1 in 60 million doesn't seem that unlikely.

Then again, I'd be a pain in the ass on any jury, I'm told. New York won't even call me to serve any more, after the last rout.

you want to know just how many kids this lady has had, I assume?

that no genetic predisposition has been found yet. Not the same as "affirmatively ruled out" of course, but nothing ever is.

treated.

convict anyone of anything.

than drawing a Royal Fizzbin.

Two years ago, a tree in your backyard got burned down when nobody was at home. The same thing happened again recently.

What do you think are the relative likelihood (you may or may not specify numbers) that (a) lightning struck your backyard twice in two years (b) you have a neighbor who hates you?