These developments among Republicans in Utah are interesting, but I don't see them having much influence on the Republican party/conservative movement elsewhere, for two reasons:

1) The conservatism of the mountain west, of which Utah is a part, is different from the conservatism of the south, which is really where the heart and soul of the Republican party now resides. Western conservatism has always included a strong libertarian element, which is not found in the south. It is interesting to note that the two issues Cox focused on -- gay marriage and alcohol consumption -- are the sort of "live and let live" issues that are central to libertarianism.

2) Utah's conservatism is not really about race, whereas conservatism in the south is completely intertwined with issues of race. (Obama received about 11% of the white vote in Alabama last year.) Hence the economic and cultural issues which southern conservatism focuses on tend to be those which disproportionately affect the lives, and well-being, of blacks and other minorities.

So do you anticipate a realignment toward a more racial side (follow the South) or more libertarian (follow the West) or a fracturing of the party? I'm hoping for a new Whig party, myself.

One thing that we must remember is that the LDS Church actually has always been willing to countenance civil unions, provided they do not equate marriage in function.