So I was wrong on Gonzalez. I predicted that he would stay through mid November - ie until the Congressional session went into formal recesss. That way Bush could make a Recess Appointment that would last through Nov 2008 - after which his lame duck admin could run without an AG for the 3 mos of transition to the new administration,

But by resigning now - and more importantly setting the resignation effectiveness date as Sept 17, Gonzalez precludes an immediate Recess Appointment (since Congress is in recess now, if he resigned effective immediately Bush could make a Recess appt). So why now?

I think that there is a more sublte politiical calculus here. By resigning now he avoids another round of nasty investigatory hearings. Yes the sub-poenas for his, Meyers et. al. documents will continue. Be we well know that this is headed for SCOTUS and hence nothing will happen before the end of the administration. But Gonzalez can no longer be pulled before Congress to be asked inconvenient questions that harm the Bush Administration.

The there is the less important factor of the supposed WH memo indicating that those planning to resign should do so by Labor Day 07 or else be expected to serve out the rest of the term.

So by resigning now, AG takes the immediate heat off the WH on the US Attorney Scandal AND the NSA Surveillance issue - which Dems have sworn to revisit after this current recess. It also lets Bush make a visible attempt to work with Congress on finding a mutually acceptable replacement to Gonzalez for the next 3 months. Now we know this will likely fail - because Congress wants an AG that WILL continue to investigate both scandals and WILL comply with subpoenas and that is the last thing POTUS wants.

Then in November, having made a "good faith effort" to "work with Congress", Bush can declare that 3 months of stalemate is enough and he is appointing HIS candidate as a recess appointment. This reduces the political fallout of the recess appointment, while getting around Congressional will.

Not a clean simple answer, but one I think meets the observable facts.

Degsme,

As always, you make a very convincing argument. I wouldn't be all that surprising for your scenario to come to fruition. We all know that President Bush wants a fight with Congress. He seems to live for it and a fight would give him the cover to do a November recess appointment.

Of course, Congress could always remain in session as a means to thrawart such a move by the President. Not sure what will happen.

Who knows, we could all be wrong and the President plays nice with Congress. OK, that might be a stretch, but who knows.

Well the pattern is that when Bush fights with Congress, his approval ratings go up about 3-5 ticks. Mainly because it brings back some of the straying "true believers". What Bush doesn't seem to get is that it does NOT bring back any of the middle that got alienated by Bush's unilateral form of governance.

I think Bush will pretend to make nice while actually picking a fight.

The key word in all your gobbely gook is "think".. You actualy have no idea if you are right or wrong and neither does anyone else.

He just told you he was wrong. What is convincing about this???

We "think" quantum mechanics models how electrons work - because our analysis lets us make useful predictions and gives us measurable insight. The fact that it is simply a mental framework doesn't make it any less useful or accurate in predicting the world.

Your implication is that we can't make useful inferences unless we have a straight up access to the WH is just that much spin and FUD

Its called logic and the observable facts.

But I guess that's not something that conservative appologists for Bus want to face hmm?