The religious right put GWB back in the White House in 2004, but couldn't do the same for McCain. I think there are two reasons for this. One, the RR really wasn't that big a block, counting about 23% of voters in 2004. So, who were the other 77%? Clearly, some of them were independants, and McCain tracked better with them than with the RR. That is why he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, to shore up support among the religious conservatives. Unfortunately, that seems to have cost him the independant vote.

The second reason is more important, I think, and that is that religious people are leaving the RR, because they aren't happy about how the RR is portraying the religious. Some of us are put off by the RR's stance on issues like gay marriage, intelligent design, stem-cell research, and abstinence-based education (although Prop. 8 passed in CA, of all places!). Then there's environmental issues and the idea of stewardship of earth's resources, an important issue to many Christians that wasn't picked up by the RR. Finally, many Christians voted for Barak because they saw him as someone who would better help the poor, which appeals to their sense of social justice. He offered something of an olive branch on abortion, which some more pragmatic Christians see as a better solution than overturning Roe.

And abortion itself didn't get much attention this election, either. It was overshadowed by more immediate concerns with the economy and what to do about Iraq. I think some of us are really tired of arguing with people about abortion and are ready to move on. IMO, we lost this argument long ago. For whatever reason, the majority of people in America want to keep abortion legal, so we need to work within that framework. Who knows? If enough of us organize, maybe we can hold Obama's feet to the fire on his statement to reduce abortions and respect the sanctity of life.

The abortion issue isn't like other issues. We as a nation will never move on with regard to abortion. It would be nice, but in reality, it's simply impossible. The divide is too deep. At the heart of the right to life issue is the meaning of life, and the moment life begins. That is not matter for dissection and analysis. For those of us who believe life begins at conception, moving on is impossible...

23% is a significant amount of the electorate, especially considering Bush typically was winning with only 50-51% of the popular vote. The evangelical vote represents a huge percentage of Republican support, and can't be jettisoned while the Republicans want to control any branch of government.

The problem is that they represent minority views on many issues, so how can they be combined with moderate voters who don't always agree with them.

In 2008 the evangelical vote was at least as high as it was in 2004, meaning the religous right did in fact turn out for McCain, they simply weren't enough. In some states, like Indiana, the evangelical vote actually increased relative to 2004.

A major issue for Republicans is that continued pandering to these groups drives away moderate voters, which they need to win. These social issues aren't winning any elections for them when most voters care far more about economic issues or the war in Iraq. Republicans need to move back to middle, which probably means less talk on some of these issues critical to evangelicals. However the popularity amongst some voters for Sarah Palin suggests they won't go away quietly.

The trick is to recognize the difference between the debate over when life begins (and I might add, the debate over gender roles and sexuality that determines whether one thinks that when life begins is even the important question) and the debate over the LEGALITY of abortion.

What the Ross Douthats of the world miss is that it is possible to be against abortion while keeping it legal, focusing on reducing the abortion rate through contraception, comprehensive sex education, and the like. Or, rather, they are aware of the issue but because the pro-life movement contains millions of people who object to these things as well, they refuse to advocate such a program.