Re: First African American President
by
huskerguy08
11/06/2008, 2:47 AM #
I disagree with the news media and other anlaysis that the "economic downturn" and this election was a referendum on GWB and the GOP of the 2000s. Even if we knew what changes will go into effect with either McCain or Obama as President, the effects on specific types of investments isn't as obvious as it might seem. Many factors outside the control of the president, or of Congress, affect the fortunes of individual companies, entire sectors and investor portoflios. An internal financial scandal, failed product launch, or unwise acquisition can sink a company's stock price regardless of whether a piece of legislation supposedly helpful to that company's industry has passed into law. But the democracts didn't seem hesitant to hop on the bandwagon and blame and lable it as "bad and/or failed economic policy." If any party should be blamed for running a negative campaing, it may as well be the democracts when all the economic turmoil facing our ecomony at the present time, is certaintly hasn't been caused by the current Bush Adminstration. A Democract controlled house and Senate has been seated for two full years, and have been passing economic leliglation by a whim which have failed the American people.
The uncertainty extends beyond individual stocks. Entire sectors can find themselves at the mercy of commodities prices, currency swings, and the always-unpredictable whims of consumers. Unexpected foreign shocks--military, political, or financial--can hit the whole market hard. Certainly some presidential decisions, especially those that don't require congressional approval, can have an influence on the U.S. economy or the stock and bond markets. But that influence is extremely limited. Global economic conditions, meanwhile, are beyond the president's control. In fact, as we've seen recently, they're beyond anyone's control. therefore, for the democratics to start pointing the fingers at the GOP for finger-pointing, about failed economic polices over the last eight years -- how about say, the democracts have held a majority in the house and senate over the past two years, and haven't been able to control the downturn in the economy either, but shifts the blame onto the GOP?
The past offers examples of how tenuous the connection between a candidate's ostensible positions and subsequent investment results can be. In 1992, a feeling arose that should Bill Clinton win the White House, environmental stocks would benefit--mainly because Al Gore, even then known for his pro-environment views, would become vice president. Clinton and Gore did win, and a slew of "environmental" mutual funds came out.
Bad idea. As it turned out, sweeping pro-environment legislation wasn't the first thing pushed by the new administration. Or the second or third. Some environment-related actions eventually did emerge, but it still wasn't clear exactly what impact they would have on various companies. Most critical, though, was the vagueness of the investment concept. After all, what should an "environmental" fund actually invest in? Not an easy question to answer in the early 1990s. The funds made up their own solutions, and they ended up owning "green" firms that focused on alternative energy along with cleanup companies such as Waste Management plus a hodgepodge of various other stocks added in to fill out the portfolio. Not surprisingly, the funds proved disappointing, and most were merged away or liquidated. The GOP didn't twist the blame onto the democracts for those investment failures.