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Obama's Lead Over McCain Growing
by RCH1
+3/-1 Reply


According to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain by 49 percent to 43 percent among likely U.S. voters - up 2 points in the last day. With just over three weeks to go before the November 4 election, the poll showed Obama gaining traction among independent voters who now back him by a 21-point margin. Among women, another crucial group, the Illinois senator held a solid 12-point lead, while the two candidates were tied among male voters at 45 percent apiece.

Obama has widened his lead as weeks of economic turmoil shook financial markets, causing stock markets to plunge and fueling voter concern over pocketbook issues. McCain appeared to be failing to connect with many voters on the issue of the economy, and a wave of attacks leveled against Obama by the McCain campaign also fell flat.

"Clearly the negative campaigning isn't working," Zogby said, noting that Obama was winning support among some voters in even the strongest traditional Republican voting blocs. He's getting 19 percent support among conservatives and 35 percent support among born-again or evangelical (Christian) voters, which is pretty substantial. I wonder if the McCain campaign ought to be raising some red flags," he said.

Ron

Re: Obama's Lead Over McCain Growing
by shirley
Ron, I'm inclined to think it's too late to start raising red flags. I don't know if it's a sense of entitlement that McCain's had, a lack of enthusiasm, a vp choice that's fallen falt, or if it's just too many negatives working against him--the eceomy, the wars, the deficits, eight years of the Bush policies, Katrina, rising inflation, take your pick but I think it would have been a difficult time for any Republican this time.
Quoting Bill Clinton in 1992 . . .
by RCH1


"It's the Economy, Stupid".

While McCain can try to distance himself from Bush, he cannot distance himself from the GOP. And with the Economy in "free-fall" - voters are inclined to blame the party "in power".

Since it is highly unlikely that the Economy is about to improve significantly before the election, there is little that McCain can due to reverse the current trend.

Ron

Re: Quoting Bill Clinton in 1992 . . .
by TickleBob

I disagree copletely and some polls don't match yours, but McCain needs to deliver "red meat".

<link>

You call it negative campaigning, but there is no such thing.

The top campaign advisers for presidential nominees John McCain and Barack Obama argued on FOX News Sunday over which campaign was employing the harshest tactics to scare voters.

After sparing back and forth; they sort of ended on this note, giving you a real picutre of what these "campaign managers" feel about each other... not just their candidate.

The men also pulled no punches up over their own careers, with Axelrod asking Davis if his job as a lobbyist meant he made a million dollars selling access to McCain, and Davis accusing Axelrod of wanting to run Washington in the same way as Chicago's politics are conducted.

(This isn't like we're competitors and stay away from each other; this is genuine & mutual dislike and disrespect between the two gentlemen.)

* * *
Historian and author Joseph Cummins is no stranger to the dirty underside of the American democratic process. His latest book, Anything for a Vote: Dirty Tricks, Cheap Shots, and October Surprises, chronicles the campaign smears, attacks, and misdirections that have typified U.S. elections since George Washington’s win in 1789. The upshot of Cummins’s book: campaigns are no dirtier now than they were in the past. He agreed to answer our questions about his book.

Q: From your research, have you found any overarching trends among presidential candidates, political parties, and campaigns?

A: Anything for a Vote came about because I was fascinated by commentators in recent presidential contests claiming that American politics is getting nastier and nastier — lots of hand-wringing over whether democracy would survive the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Every election, it seemed, was getting dirtier and dirtier.

But is this really true? After researching every presidential contest from 1789 to 2004, my answer is that elections are not getting dirtier. They’re just as dirty as they have always been. Whether that’s a heartening trend depends on your point of view. I myself am a great fan of the unruly democratic process, which I think will always be unruly.
In terms of trends, a rough rule of thumb is that incumbent parties tend to play the most dirty tricks, perhaps because they have the ways and means to do so. It’s also true that parties with the strongest ideologies — be they Democratic or Republican — fight dirtier, possibly because they are not only pushing a candidate, but an entire way of life.
Both parties at different times in American history have been guilty of mind-boggling attempts to influence elections. In the 1880s, one of the worst decades in terms of dirty tricks, Republicans sent bagmen to Indiana — then a pivotal state — with hundreds of thousands of dollars in two dollar bills (dubbed “Soapy Sams” for their ability to grease palms) in order to purchase votes. The 1960s was the era of Democratic dirty tricks — in 1964, Lyndon Johnson oversaw one of the most corrupt elections ever, against Barry Goldwater.
In 1840, the American Whig politician Thomas Elder had a eureka moment when he wrote to a friend: “Passion and prejudice properly aroused and directed do about as well as principle and reason in any party contest.”

I think this has been the guiding dictum of presidential politics all throughout our history.

<link>

"Some polls don't match yours"
by RCH1



But all three of the MAJOR polls are essentially in agreement. I quoted Zogby, but Rasmussen has it 51-45% Obama and Gallup has it 50-43%.

Ron

Re: "Some polls don't match yours"
by TickleBob

Actually it's not new. Obama has held 6 to 7 pts for several weeks, since the major news of the financial crisis finally sank ito the American mind.

According to two major sources (I'll admit one is Karl Rove), Americans still aren't decided and he said that if the election was held "that day" Obama would be the victor. He is adamant there is time to change Americans thinking.

The final two weeks are likely to be a smear of Obama's real life connections all over the place; but they are fair game. This is a version of "This is Your Life" and Americans deserve to know what they are voting for.

Re: "Some polls don't match yours"
by Phoen-X

I haven't run across any poll that leads toward McCain, at this point if I did, I think it would be suspect.

I think someone was right to characterize McCain as a gambler, he gambled on Palin who gave him a needed boost in the polls but many respected conservatives were doubtful, with good reason it seems.

Clearly, at this point at least, McCain is on the losing end and Obama has the momentum, I fear for Obama's life though, those Republican rallies stirred up a lot of primitive hate.

Dave

Re: "Some polls don't match yours"
by TickleBob

SAME ZOGBY...

143 days in the U.S. Senate before launching his campaign for the highest office in the land. You couldn't be hired by a major bank and become President in 143 days.

I read all sorts of predictions about what's going to happen in this election. I'll share two with you here:

Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.

“The Sunday before the election the dam burst,” Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. “That’s when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan.”

“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

<link>


Karl Rove: - - -

Mr. Obama's test is that voters haven't shaken deep concerns about his lack of qualifications. Having accomplished virtually nothing in his three years in the Senate except to win the Democratic nomination, Mr. Obama must show he is up to the job. Voters like him, conditions favor him, yet he has not closed the sale. He may be approaching the finish line with that mixture of lassitude and insouciance he displayed in the spring against Mrs. Clinton.

<link>

Re: Obama's Lead Over McCain Growing
by BFD
Zogby is also the one who had Obama up by 13 and Romney up by 7 in California on the day before Super Tuesday. Both were way off the mark and rendered everything Zogby does suspect IMO.
It's not only Zogby
by RCH1

Rasmussen has it 51-45% and Gallup has it 50-43%.

Ron

Re: Obama's Lead Over McCain Growing
by TickleBob

BFD:
Zogby is also the one who had Obama up by 13 and Romney up by 7 in California on the day before Super Tuesday. Both were way off the mark and rendered everything Zogby does suspect IMO.

Well, note please that Zogby was part of the poll team you first quoted in your post originating this thread; we should also consider it suspect I am supposing.

As for Rasmussen I watch their change in % of likelihood to win the White House. In this week it's fluxuated between 51% and 70% but today is a mere 55%.

I am expecting the McCain Palin team to expose everything negative about Obama up to and including how long he sucked his thumb when he was a child.

Obama is a "SOCIALIST" and that's now really what America seeks, I don't believe. Thing now is McCain must demonstrate clearly that Obama is SOCIALIST.& EVEN COMMUNIST.

Re: It's not only Zogby
by BFD

Yeah! I saw those today. Obama has had a steady 5-7 point lead on Rasmussen for 2 weeks. Obama lead by 11 on Gallup 2 days ago,

I still don't trust Zogby.Last Tuesday,he had Obama up by 2.

Re: "Some polls don't match yours"
by TickleBob
Phoen-X:

I haven't run across any poll that leads toward McCain, at this point if I did, I think it would be suspect.

I think someone was right to characterize McCain as a gambler, he gambled on Palin who gave him a needed boost in the polls but many respected conservatives were doubtful, with good reason it seems.

Clearly, at this point at least, McCain is on the losing end and Obama has the momentum, I fear for Obama's life though, those Republican rallies stirred up a lot of primitive hate.

Dave

Apparently you fear for Obama's life more than he does; he smokes.

UGH!

"poll team" I first quoted.
by BFD
Not sure what you're getting at. I'm no fan or believer of Zogby. Think I made that pretty clear.
Re: "poll team" I first quoted.
by TickleBob

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The race for the White House has tightened slightly, with Barack Obama's lead over John McCain narrowing to seven percentage points at the end of the past week, according to a Gallup tracking poll released Sunday.

Based on polling from Thursday through Saturday, hard on the heels of Wednesday's televised debate, Gallup put Democratic contender Obama at 50 percent Saturday, unchanged from a week earlier, after it climbed to as high as 52 percent in mid-week.

His Republican rival McCain meanwhile shifted a point to 43 percent -- his best showing in a week that had shown him as low as 41 percent.

"Obama has led in each of the last three days' individual day's polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening," said Gallup as it released its findings.

Gallup's tracking poll is based on daily telephone interviews with no fewer than 1,000 American adults across the country in the run-up to the November 4 election.

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