I don't trust any of the polls, nor the polling organizations that run them.
Why?
Because there are too many variables and I do not believe they have the statistics of human behavior down to a science as much as they think they do. This is not Asimov's Foundation series where the behavior of masses of people can be predicted with incredible precision.
Zogby today says Obama's up 1.9%, well within the margin of error. Gallup says Obama's up 9%.
That is hilarious.
I've been saying for a long time, forget the polls, trust your common sense and what you know to be true. Look at some of the past elections and also look at the simplest facts that can be expressed easily to the public at large. That is how you can predict who will win this race. And, I've been saying this for some time, McCain has it in the bag.
Just some, but not all, of the reasons why:
1. The American people, when they know it's time to pull the lever, will realize that they could hand the Democrats total control over both houses of Congress and the White House at the same time. If the situation were reversed they'd probably be equally uncomfortable. But this is exacerbated by the fact that Americans are realizing this Fannie Mae Barney Frank et al financial fiasco is at the very least the fault of both parties equally, but most probably more the fault of Democrats entrenched in power. Therefore, as much as the knee jerk response for a week was to lay some backlash at the Republican candidates' feet, this will have settled the other way by Nov. 4.
2. Obama at his very best, with the overwhelming support of a media totally in the bag for him, just barely squeaked by his opponent in the primary, Hillary Clinton. His campaign is not nearly as effective as liberals want you to believe. He raised an enormous amount of money and has thousands upon thousands of volunteers out in the country, all trained according to the methods he knows. He is running 3x the television advertising as John McCain, and has bought up a cable station to run a rolling two minute ad, over and over and over again. This is either what is barely keeping his head above water, or it is turning off voters because people are sick of having him and his creepy trained volunteers getting into their faces.
3. His math doesn't add up. He is lying about cutting taxes, and the American people do not believe a Democrat who runs on a campaign of tax cuts. The American people understand that the rich need to pay more, but they are not ignorant to the fact that the rich already pay far, far, far more than the average citizen. We are not a nation of thieves. There's only so much we can stand government confiscation before we become revolted. And we realize that the government spends money less wisely than the people who earned it and deserve to keep it.
4. He has absolutely zero experience. His foreign policy can be summed up by the act of getting it absolutely wrong ... as wrong as wrong can get, and then reversing his opinion three days later and saying, "Yeah, what McCain said." The few things on which he has stuck to his guns are truly dangerous for our national security. He refuses to admit the surge worked and was the right thing to do, he refuses to admit it was wrong to say he would talk to Ahmadinejad unconditionally, and he continues to telegraph his punches and kill his ability to engage in real diplomacy with that nuclear armed country, Pakistan. He's shoved his foot in his mouth so many times with such potentially disastrous consequences that Americans will not elect him. His entire experience as a leader is in running a political campaign.
5. John McCain is a war hero with decades of experience. He does not believe in confiscating too much money from the private sector in order to give it to bureaucrats who will spend it less wisely than private citizens, but he does have a record of bashing heads with President Bush and even going against his own heroes when he sincerely disagrees with them. He has a record of trying to cut wasteful government spending, he tells the American people the truth about the future of entitlements, he wants to make sure that we bridge the gap between the crisis of energy prices now to a future that can take advantage of rational alternative energy technologies.
6. Obama refuses to drill offshore, blames the oil companies for not extracting more oil out of places that require immense additional cost to get at it, won't commit to building new nuclear plants, as clean as they are, and has demonstrated on this and on so many issues that he is beholden to an extremist far left liberal set of handlers and bosses.
He's an inexperienced young pup, in way too far over his head, and after he loses this election the sad thing will be that all those liberal messiah worshiping moonies will turn on him with viciousness. He's a drowning pup, but they won't fish him out of the rapids when it's over. They'll just let him sink.
