We can all debate Sarah Palin's surprising ability to piece together talking points without collapsing into a quivering heap after a month of coaching, but the real story from yesterday is McCain's concession of Michigan.

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So what exactly is McCain's electoral strategy at this point? He can't win without Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, N. Carolina AND Florida, and he's at risk in all 6.

So how close is this election, really?

Oh, that's just a blatant liberal MSM lie!

Michigan is voting McCain to punish the DNC.

Any Major PUMA will tell you that.

The only question now is how big the margin will be. If it's large enough to affect down-ticket races, the filibuster-proof Senate may be within reach.

Some polls are showing Obama with big leads in Ohio, Virginia, and even Florida. McCain is forced to play defense in North Carolina and West Virginia. There's even movement in states like Texas and Mississippi. If McCain is forced to spend money to defend those states, all is lost for him.

Assuming the national polls get back to par after the Sarah charm offensive and getting the bailout deal off the front page, McCain wins all six of those. That gets him to 265.

New Hampshire would then lead to a 269 tie (a win if he manages to peel off one electoral vote in Maine). Failing that, Colorado would put him over the top.

He's currently down 3-4 points in Colorado, but if the national polls swing back, he's in good shape there.

I don't understand why he's spending so much time in Iowa. That's a lost cause. Those visits were probably cooked up by the same genius who decided to go for a second Couric interview. Oy.

He was in Iowa,where he is further behind than in Michigan,on Wednesday and then announces on Thursday that he's pulling out of Michigan. Wassup with that?

Right now the polls show that Obama is leading and pulling away in the other blue states McCain hoped to flip: PA,NH,WI and MN. McCain is basically down to defending the '04 GWB states. Iowa and NM are pretty much lost already. The McCain campaign has some tough choices to make about advertising and scheduling in the last 32 days of the campaign.

I don't think he made any friends in IA this week. Did you see that clip of him at the Des Moines Register. He looked like he was going to stroke out, he was so pissed off.

Definitely a different man than the 2000 McCain. Not well at all.

He shouldn't have been in Iowa in the first place and he definitely didn't help himself while he was there.

I don’t think so. I don’t think he nails Indiana or Ohio. And Florida is going to be a surprise. As goes Ohio…

Anyway—the economy isn’t coming off the front page. Not until the election. Running 6 balls on the table… not that easy—especially on bank shots.

So—family weddings and no hot southern cousin lust, huh? What gives?

Assuming the bailout deal passes today,it won't go off the front page until next week. It'll dominate the weekend news cycle. It'll be Monday at the earliest before we know which way,if at all,the bailout deal and the VP debate moves the poll numbers.

Though I suppose that would be more daring and scandalous.

Occasionally people will try to appear knowledgable by opining loftily "the national polls don't matter; it's the electoral college that counts." This happens a lot when they're down in the national polls.

This, of course, is bullshit. The reason swing states are swing states is that they move with the national polls. The only reason that those six states are competitive is that the national polls are in Obama's direction. If the national polls swing back, those six fall naturally into McCain's lap.

It should also be noted that Obama routinely overpolls. During the primaries, I always added four points to Hillary's poll total, and was never far off the result, except in Indiana for some reason. The youth vote doesn't turn out, and they're not any more motivated than they were earlier in the year.

If the national polls are within a couple of points, McCain wins. And a glorious era of milk and honey and hot chicks in short skirts will precede the End Times in 2012.

And time grows short. But if the national polls swing back, so do the swing states.

Iowa still puzzles me. Why hang out in Iowa? Frustrating.

They have a 35 year history of voting themselves into socialist Democrat enable economic ruin....why would they change now?

socialist Democrat enable economic ruin

since the Republicans are the new socialists, MI could go for them now

The thing is,the polls were already shifting in Obama's direction before the bailout deal flap. In my opinion,that was the beginning of the cumulative effect of Obama's grassroots organization/ground game. It is larger and far superior to Kerry and Gore's. Earlier this week,an RNC dude said it and McCain's operation was just getting to the level of the '04 campaign.

Ordinarily you’d be right. The reality is that Obama over polls because many people won’t vote for him for a myriad of reasons—including the clichéd “Bradley Effect” but right now people are being forced to choose between their pocket and other inclinations. It’s a near thing. But nobody ever went broke underestimating people’s greed. In short—I’ll take that bet.

And short skirts should be mandatory all the time. Or at least long ones with side slits. And lots of buttons.