Re: Palin's balloon fills back up a bit, but doesn't fly.
by
Steve-R
10/02/2008, 2:43 PM #
I don’t see any reason why Palin can’t do a decent job in the debate. She has debated well in the past. She may suffer in the difference between running for Gov. of Alaska and running for VP of the US, and she may have a serious mistake or two on substance. But I’m more inclined to think she’ll make it through OK and boost herself and her ticket a bit.
The more important question is whether she can catch fire again like she did after the GOP convention, because that’s what the GOP ticket needs at this point. And I think it’s too late for that. At the convention, the delegates were starving for something to get enthusiastic about. And Palin filled that void. She soon experienced the kind of phenomenon that Obama experienced early in his campaign, i.e., the blank slate and the receptacle of the political hopes of millions among the party faithful. People start projecting all kinds of qualities and virtues that they desperately want that person to possess. And after that’s gone on for a while, then there’s some scrutiny, even among the faithful, to see if you’re worthy of carrying all of those hopes. The difference is that Obama has faced much of that scrutiny and largely passed through it favorably (though the ultimate test on that is Nov. 7th). And Palin has not held up to that scrutiny. Worse for her, McCain’s performance at the top of the ticket has been a major drag on the ticket. And even worse for both of them, Bush in the White House is the ball and chain that’s dragging them both down.
So in spite of whatever political talents and skills she has, the wall for her is too high to climb. In general, I see a similar dynamic as in the first Obama-McCain debate. Palin will throw jabs and try to get Biden into a scuffle, Biden will not take the bait, and whatever points Palin scores on style will be countered by Biden’s points on substance. And Palin’s points will be further undermined by the overriding credibility problem choking the GOP this year.