The limitations of a hypothetical
by
gvillain
08/02/2007, 7:13 PM #
Ironically, I recall thinking the exact opposite after seeing a "Barack Will Invade Pakistan" on the evening news last night -- hypotheticals are so unfair and misleading. I agree that they can be useful questions, but only if we are cautious enough to distinguish between how a person thinks, and what they will actually do. I don't think this is true of the media and general public.
Answering a hypothetical is a two step process: we must first construct, for ourselves, the details of a scenario (a test of the imagination); and then decide what we would do (a test of the problem solving skill set). But the human imagination is notoriously unreliable (for a compelling argument, I'd suggest Dan Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness). Mental constructions of a hypothetical scenario are painted with broad strokes. The importance of various factors are distorted. Important details are left out. Now this is probably less a problem for the answerer (Obama should -- as a presidential candidate -- be spending considerable time on these scenarios and getting them, more or less, right) than it is for those judging the answer. As an audience, we too must use our imagination to construct our own details of a scenario by which to assess the answer. Looking backward in time is manageable (e.g., the Iraq war question), but looking forward, our imaginations are likely to fail us. If the candidate is at risk for wrongly predicting his/her future scenario, we are even more likely to get it wrong when we judge them on it.
Sure, the hypothetical is a great way to see how someone thinks. But when (and this is sad) was the last time that a president was elected because he had a great imagination and superb analytical skills?