The easy and obvious explanation of Obama's sag in the polls is that this is a "Palin bounce," but that is probably wrong. The sag began even before the conventions, was reversed during the Democratic week, and is now back on track. The real reason is more likely that, in a striking contrast to the primaries, Obama is currently not running a very good campaign. His strategy of turning the election into a referendum on Bush is not working. For two reasons. The first is that this theme is being stressed to the point that it has the effect of throw Obama off-message. He and his spokesmen spend so much time on it that they aren't saying very much about the positive themes of last Spring. We get sound bites of Obama knocking McCain all the time. But how much, for example, do we hear him talking about health care? Do we hear anything at all about his former theme of transcending normal partisan politics? These were the themes that originally resonated with the voters. This is bad strategy: when a team is in the playoffs it ought to continue to play the game that got it there. Every news cycle that features this "McCain would be more Bush" line rather than Obama's positive messages is a wasted opportunity, and in the recent past Obama has been wasting a lot of them. Second, this "McCain would simply be more more Bush" theme doesn't seem to be resonating very well with the American people, who know McCain too well to buy this premise. McCain very palpably is not Bush, he's a very different animal, and a McCain administration would most certainly not be a carbon copy of the past eight years. And I suspect that what troubles the American people the most about Bush has very little to do with the long litany of Democratic complaints we hear all the time, and a lot more with a more generalized sense that Bush is not a large enough man for the job. And this is a perception that is not transferable to McCain. In the business world, if a marketing strategy fails to work you drop it and move on. In the same way, Obama needs to get his mojo back by returning to the kind of campaign we saw in the primaries. Maybe because he has been listening too much to his advisers and hondlers, who seem to be a bunch of standard partisan Liberals, and is evolving into a spokesman for their message at the expense of his own, Obama is allowing his campaign to go seriously off the rails. He needs to hook up with his former self and go back to what works for him.

I agree. The campaign is abysmal. We get it - McCain is more of the same. Stop saying it and SHOW WHY.

Get the $%*&ing film clips out and show McCain saying two different things about the same subject. Those clips are out there... put them on TV.

SHOW why he's not a maverick. How come The Daily Show can do this every night, yet the DNC cannot throw enough money away on "writers" a "advisors" who make a joke out of their job titles? It's pretty bad when our best brains are writing for late night comedy shows and not for our candidates. The GOP is the opposite.

Their smart funny writers work for their candidates. Their late night comedy show sucked.

They win elections, we don't.

Get LOUD. Learn how to TALK. I'm tired of seeing Obama in white shirt and tie with sleeves rolled up talking to a few old union guys saying "Uh... you know....Senator McCain is... uh.... he has a great past as a war hero and all and... uh... you know, he's doesn't want to talk... talk about ...uh.... the middle class."

Get real about this fucking "surge." It worked? I see dead people. Dead soldiers. Every week. They're still dying over there. If the surge worked, they'd be alive and home soon.

It's Kerry all over again.

Years ago, my dad used to say "The Yankees fall apart every August." They did. They'd play great, then poop out when it really mattered and never make it to October. The Democrats do the same thing. Crap out in August and never gather steam again.

Oh well. We'lll have to look forward to Hillary 2012.

Nope, wrong strategy. The more time and energy Obama spends attacking McCain, the less he has over for explaining what he's for. He didn't get the nomination by making personal assaults on Hillary, he did it by talking reasonably about things that matter to average, non-ideological voters, especially by making health care Number One on his hit parade. He did it by preaching a kind of "change" that transcended normal party politics. He did it by telling people what was right about himself rather than focusing exclusively on what was wrong with Hillary, which would have been a futile time-waster. It worked, it got him the nomination. Now he's seems to have forgotten everything he knew. He's letting himself become a mouthpiece for the usual leftie partisan venom (thanks for giving us an illustrative specimen) rather than being his own man. I suspect one reason for The Sag is that a lot of his supporters, especially his idealistic young ones, are beginning to latch on to the fact he's not Obama any more, since getting the nomination he's morphed into something entirely different by letting the Liberal establishment take over his campaign. All the stuff in his message that was new, fresh and exciting seems to have been lost along the way. The Obama of September needs to be re-introduced to the Obama of February and March..

Obama uh.... he's still.... saying, uhhh.... uhhh... "change." He's right there, uh... right there in front of the middle... uhhhh class..... saying "Change is needed." And by change.... uhhh... he doesn't... uhhh... mean... the same thing... uhhh ... as before. That's what change is.... uhhh...I mean.... it's not the same thing as before.

I uhhhh... haven't seen Obama....uhhhhh... saying anything far uhhhh.... left.

Uhhhh... so maybe, the fine American people can uhhhh.... tell me what he uh.... has been saying lately that's uhhhh... so leftwing.

Obama is moving to the center so fast that he is unbelievable to the vast majority of the people in the center. With his background of Anti-Ameican muslim friends, most peoplel read that as far left. Regardless of what he actually says.

Not only is Obama a product of his Muslim friends, his positions on the issues don't fly.

He is already backtracking on his economic program, acknowledging it essentially is ethereal.

Obama Admits His Tax Hikes Would Harm Economic Growth

In a reversal, Obama now admits his tax hike plan has consequences

<link>

Obama is a lightweight who doesn't have a viable plan, His acknowledgment he isn't capable of being POTUS by selecting Biden, and; repudiating Hillary (similar to sharia law) confirm this.

You are so full of B.S. it isn't even funny. I read your link and watched the video and he most certainly did not admit that raising taxes on the top 1 % would hurt the economy. It would simply put us back where we were in the 90s under the Clinton administration. History has proven this is a workable level of taxation. His comments were directed towards the capital gains tax. He simply said that he would consider waiting until the market improved to increase the capital gains tax. That isn't an admission of anything, it is an example that he is a smart man who looks at the facts before making decisions. Oh, and if you could please stop spreading the lie that he is a muslim that would be great.

because the people who want him to win are crucifying Palin for not personally aborting her future grandchild. Heck I was gung ho Obama and the fanatics are pushing me further and further in McCain's corner with their tactics. In gambling circles it's common knowledge that scared money doesn't win. Why are they doing this it's like journalistic masochism. They really want him to win, but lessen the likelihood with every "story" they break.

Phooey.

Sag?!

Mojo?!

The reality is that this is definitely a Palin bounce and... it has transcended even the media's attempt to sweep it under the carpet!

The actual results, though, will be much more staggering than what we'll be hearing from the liberal-backed media in the near future.

The curtain is finally off "the wizard" right now, and Obama can no sooner get back his mojo, get back on track, or regain his strategy than he can turn back time at this point.

Furthermore, this trend (wave) couldn't be hitting the Dems at a worst time than right before the election.

See you at the polls...

Sure you were "gung ho" Obama. If you are claiming that people are 'crucifying Palin for not aborting her future grandchild' - then you never were for Obama because that is just plain GOP spin control.

Frankly if you consider negative stories about Palin "journalistic masochism" or "scared money" then you are part of the pro-Palin spin cycle.

Please just be honest about it.

Rasmussen Reports that "liberal of liberals" (not really - they are the most conservative of the publicly available polls), shows that McCain/Palin's post convention bounce is over.

The Daily tracking poll puts them at peaking 2 days ago at +1 and trending downwards ever since. Note that the "daily tracking polls" underreport candidates that are trending since they carry 3 days of history with them. So instead of just "even" without the leaners, McCain is probably -1%, and With The Leaners, McCain is probably -2%

'SHOW why he's not a maverick. How come The Daily Show can do this every night, yet the DNC cannot throw enough money away on "writers" a "advisors" who make a joke out of their job titles?'

mmmm. run the democrat campaign like comedy central? why didn't i think of that? brilliant! they are one big joke anyway.

Ok, if you're going to call me out on it...I guess I will go for it maybe Obama will send me back that campaign contribution too. He can enclose a note as to why he wouldn't take McCain's straight up challenge to use the public funds.

I like Obama and if he wins I won't cry too much. There's a McCain campaign office about two blocks from my house, I think I'll go up there and get me a sticker. Obama wants to sell them to me in bulk and I still can't delete MyBarackObama web page from the web. Neither can I delete the "friends" I don't know. I lambasted Hillary in an effort to see this guy win - CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE he cries, then picks the biggest washington ultra liberal insider he can find for his running mate???

If and only if, he tells me what his plan for change is will I consider penciling my arrow by his name in November. Doesn't any of his advisors know psychology? My god he's told us how much money he's got, can't he get better advice? Here's my two cents: Ambiguity and uncertainty create anxiety. Anxious people can't fill in the little arrows to get him elected. Yes, I know there are problems in washington -everyone does, let's move on with a plan.

Washington Ultra Liberal? There ain't no such animal. Seriously, if you think Biden is a "liberal" you really don't have a good grasp of how "liberal" real liberals are.

I think your point about ambiguity and anxiety though, are fairly accurate, but I don't see where you think that Obama hasn't published white-paper after white-paper on how he plans to implement the change he has been talking about.

Seriously, what more do you want? sure he hasn't gone into that sort of mind-number boring drilldown in his public speeches, but the information is there.

Unless you honestly think that's not enough. If its not, can you explain how it isn't?

Guylinder wrote the following post at 09/08/2008 5:24 PM:

"It's pretty bad when our best brains are writing for late night comedy shows and not for our candidates."

Know what's really bad? When our internet armchair advisors get their ideas from the Comedy Channel.

Guylinder also wrote: "It's Kerry all over again." Yes, but without the charisma. At least there was more to Kerry than the media creation BO has always been.

Guylinder also wrote: "They [Republicans] win elections, we don't." Gee, how about putting up quality candidates for a change?