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Any bets on where unemployment will peak?
by genedio

U3 is up 0.4% to 6.1% for August. That's a pretty hefty climb.

I bet this recession is a doozy and we see a climb of 4% from Bush's low of about 4.4%. That means we exceed the 1991-2 recession.

Of course, as some have pointed out, U3 is misleading, as it doesn't account for part-time or discouraged workers. But it's the measure which everyone uses. Bush and Clinton made it harder to be counted as unemployed, but I bet the rate still climbs up above 8%, probably by 2010.

Did we have 8% with Carter??
by Sovereign8
I sense that BO is Jimmie-Carter, round 2.

If Mc wins, I suspect that his warring would prevent high unemployment despite the economic burlesque.

But still, those "employed" include an awful lot more overhead than in the past.

And one has to realize the scam of The Fed buying T-bonds.
Re: Did we have 8% with Carter??
by PhilfromCalifornia

"But still, those 'employed' include an awful lot more overhead than in the past."

I take it you agree with my comment of a day or two ago that much of what is now called the service society used to be called "overhead".

Hasn't the Fed always bought T-Bonds? I though that was the favored means of having your currency backed. All it takes is two printing presses (actually, since the Treasury prints the dollars for the Fed, they could get by with one) and the bonds and the dollars are backed by each other.

Re: Did we have 8% with Carter??
by PhilfromCalifornia

No; we didn't have 8% during Carter. Here are the years surrrounding, and including Carter:

1973 4.7 Nixon

1974 5.6 Nixon

1975 8.5 Ford

1976 7.2 Ford

1977 7,1 Carter

1978 6.1 Carter

1979 5.8 Carter

1980 7.1 Carter

1981 7.6 Reagan

1982 9.7 Reagan

1983 9,6 Reagan

1984 7.5 Reagan

So: Why is Reagan a GOP Messiah??
by Sovereign8
He had awful unemployment rates.

(And awful deficits)

Re: So: Why is Reagan a GOP Messiah??
by PhilfromCalifornia

Because he was a (combat-dodging) warrior? People should look at the map of Greece and note that Athens (the nominal loser) is the capital while Sparta (the nominal winner and always warlike) is nowhere to be found (actually, there is a small village with a different name on the same site). Warriors score big among those people who divide their time between watching ultimate fighting on TV and playing violent games on their X-Boxes, all the while humming "Onward Christian Soldiers". They just love that violence stuff, and at least massive machisimo when there are no convenient battlefields available.

Depends!! Will It Be McCain Or Obama?
by LeRoy_Was_Here

Come back and ask me again after November!

But, if you are just looking for some wild-ass guesses, I would say this:

(1) If Obama is elected, U3 will peak at about 7.9% in mid-2009 and then slowly decline, in part due to government work programs.

(2) If McCain is elected, U3 will continue to climb, well into 2010 and perhaps beyond. Where will it peak? Gosh, maybe at 11.4%.

Remember: wild-ass guesses!!

Re: Did we have 8% with Carter??
by genedio
It should be pointed out, Phil, that these are yearly averages. Carter's worst years were his first and his last, and he left office with the same monthly unemployment as he entered it: 7.5%. Reagan, of course, got monthly unemployment up to 10.8% two years after Carter left office, and the two worst years for unemployment were indeed 1982 and 1983. Yet Carter gets the blame for the shittier economy. Must be that Carter had worse inflation.
Re: Depends!! Will It Be McCain Or Obama?
by genedio

7.9% and 11.7%? There's a difference of 3.8%. That's a huge difference.

Guess you don't like McCain very much.

I thought he was gonna take care of our unemployment problem and the Middle East's terrorism problem with his military?

That 11.7% does scare me. Perhaps I'd better vote for Obama.

McCain/Palin Would Be Catastrophic.
by LeRoy_Was_Here

In my humble opinion.

It doesn't strike me that they really care all that much about unemployment. Americans are all a bunch of whiners, you know.

When I said I would be making plans to high-tail it out of here if McCain wins, I was being very serious.

I should be able to have about $15-$17K scraped up by the end of the school year, and would then sell a lot of my stuff to add another $5 or $6K to that. A pretty small grubstake, but I would have to get out.

I do continue to think that Obama will win. I think he will dominate the debates, and perhaps the recent infatuation with Sarah Palin will wear off, once Americans hear that she wanted to ban a bunch of books.

Isn't that fundamentally un-American?

I always thought it was.

But maybe I'm wrong.

Or maybe America has changed.

Re: McCain/Palin Would Be Catastrophic.
by genedio

"When fascism comes to America it will come wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis.

I think that Sinclair Lewis knew whereof he spoke. He wrote Babbitt and Elmer Gantry. Good books. As good in their way as The Grapes of Wrath. Both Lewis and Steinbeck knew the American character and were unafraid to describe it.

Embarrassed To Say: I've Never Read Lewis.
by LeRoy_Was_Here

I've heard of him, of course, and I'll put Elmer Gantry on my reading list for next summer....or maybe the Christmas break.

I've always liked that H.L. Mencken quote that you cited a week or so ago as well. The sentiment seems kind of similar to your Lewis quote, albeit the latter is a bit....darker.

Some more Mencken quotes...
by genedio

As you can see, he was a complex man. Sort of our Nietzsche.

**************

A church is a place in which gentlemen who have never been to heaven brag about it to persons who will never get there.

A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.

A prohibitionist is the sort of man one couldn't care to drink with, even if he drank.

A society made up of individuals who were all capable of original thought would probably be unendurable.

Adultery is the application of democracy to love.

Bachelors know more about women than married men; if they didn't they'd be married too.

Communism, like any other revealed religion, is largely made up of prophecies.

Democracy is also a form of worship. It is the worship of Jackals by Jackasses.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under.

Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods.

Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.

For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.

Giving every man a vote has no more made men wise and free than Christianity has made them good.

I believe in only one thing: liberty; but I do not believe in liberty enough to want to force it upon anyone.

I believe that it is better to tell the truth than a lie. I believe it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe it is better to know than to be ignorant.

I never smoked a cigarette until I was nine.

If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.

In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican.

It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place.

It is impossible to imagine Goethe or Beethoven being good at billiards or golf.

It is impossible to imagine the universe run by a wise, just and omnipotent God, but it is quite easy to imagine it run by a board of gods.

It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.

It is not materialism that is the chief curse of the world, as pastors teach, but idealism. Men get into trouble by taking their visions and hallucinations too seriously.

It is now quite lawful for a Catholic woman to avoid pregnancy by a resort to mathematics, though she is still forbidden to resort to physics or chemistry.

Love is like war: easy to begin but very hard to stop.

Love is the triumph of imagination over intelligence.

Marriage is a wonderful institution, but who would want to live in an institution?

Men have a much better time of it than women. For one thing, they marry later; for another thing, they die earlier.

Morality is the theory that every human act must be either right or wrong, and that 99 % of them are wrong.

Most people want security in this world, not liberty.

No married man is genuinely happy if he has to drink worse whisky than he used to drink when he was single.

No matter how long he lives, no man ever becomes as wise as the average woman of forty-eight.

No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.

Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public.

Opera in English is, in the main, just about as sensible as baseball in Italian.

Puritanism. The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.

Say what you will about the ten commandments, you must always come back to the pleasant fact that there are only ten of them.

Temptation is a woman's weapon and man's excuse.

The basic fact about human existence is not that it is a tragedy, but that it is a bore. It is not so much a war as an endless standing in line.

The chief contribution of Protestantism to human thought is its massive proof that God is a bore.

The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.

The common argument that crime is caused by poverty is a kind of slander on the poor.

The cynics are right nine times out of ten.

The most costly of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind.

The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.

The one permanent emotion of the inferior man is fear - fear of the unknown, the complex, the inexplicable. What he wants above everything else is safety.

The opera is to music what a bawdy house is to a cathedral.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

The worst government is often the most moral. One composed of cynics is often very tolerant and humane. But when fanatics are on top there is no limit to oppression.

Unquestionably, there is progress. The average American now pays out twice as much in taxes as he formerly got in wages.

War will never cease until babies begin to come into the world with larger cerebrums and smaller adrenal glands.

When a new source of taxation is found it never means, in practice, that the old source is abandoned. It merely means that the politicians have two ways of milking the taxpayer where they had one before.

Whenever you hear a man speak of his love for his country, it is a sign that he expects to be paid for it.

Re: McCain/Palin Would Be Catastrophic.
by Gingham_Dog

Yes it is un-american, and points like that have always been tipping points, points where someone has gone beyond what is fundementally acceptable. But people always make compromises. I dont believe most Obama supporters buy into the more incediary rhetoric of his former pastor, but they have also made a compromise.

Obama needs to start working against the potential of being viewed elitist NOW. Being rich and out of touch with the lives of common people doesn't equal being elitist, and he is starting to remind me too much of Gore, Kerry, Dukakis, etc. The last person in that mold who won was JFK, and we were a different country then. Both Clinton and Carter were people you could picture at home in a rib joint.

We don't judge politicians on the issues we judge them on their character. As liberals we complain, who can they vote for such idiots? But they aren't voting issues, they are voting character. Hilary did better when she showed she could cry. Liberals need to realize this soon.

Re: McCain/Palin Would Be Catastrophic.
by genedio

The Germans probably voted for Hitler on 'character', too.

If people are so shallow and easily duped, maybe our democracy is finished?

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