I am happy that the conventions and their phony bumps and slumps are coming to an end because only now can we start to analyze Obama's and McCain's actual chances.

The polls prove only that Obama has a tiny advantage nationally that can disappear or grow depending upon what Americans in the sample had for breakfast that day.

In any event, the national polls are not the real game -- the real game is in eight states considered to be true "tossups." Here they are with their electoral allocations in brackets:

1. Florida [27]
2. Virginia [13]
3. Ohio [20]
4. Michigan [17]
5. New Hampshire [4]
6. Nevada [5]
7. Colorado [9]
8. Missouri [11]

These key states have a total of 106 electoral votes.

Before counting these battlegound states, CNN projects that Obama has about 243 in the bag, while McCain has about 189. The arithmetic is a bit dicey but here's the rub.

Obama has real uphill battles in Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, which account for 58 of the 106 electoral votes. So if he loses in those three states, where is he most likely to get the 27 electoral votes he needs?

Here's what's left:

1. Virginia [13]
2. Michigan [17]
3. New Hampshire [4]
4. Nevada [5]
5. Colorado [9]

Thus, if Obama falls short in Ohio, Florida, and Missouri he NEEDS to pick up some combination of these five states that total 27 electoral votes, to win. Here are the minimum winning combinations:

1. Virginia, Michigan
2. Virginia, Nevada, Colorado (or N.H. without Nevada)
3. Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado
4. Michigan, Nevada, Colorado.

Does anything jump out at you like it does at me?

If this is a close election, Obama needs either Michigan, Virginia or both.

For those interested in seeing an Obama presidency, the chant is:

VIRGINIA, MICHIGAN OR BOTH!

There is literally no amount of money, sweat, or time that should be denied these two states by the Obama campaign. Of the true toss-ups, they are the truest.

John,

I was thinking the same thing last night when I saw the latest poll from Iowa. Your analysis is right on. I think Obama should hit all the states though. I don't know if there have been any polls out of Florida lately, but Biden has been there and Hillary will be hitting Florida hard ( I would use her there a lot). I would push Ohio just because the Republicans have to have it (and Florida) or they have no chance at all.

Should be noted that McCain is now on spending limits, Obama is not. Granted the RNC has all but given up on Senate and Congressional races so they will put extra money into McCain. With all the talk of Palin, she turned into a good fund raiser for Obama - $8 Million in the day after her speech - the RNC raised $1 Million.

Of the states you indicated here is my breakdown:

FL 27 McCain - he has been leading in the FL pols for a while

VA 13 McCain - why because it is a traditional Republican, but it will be very close.

OH 20 McCain - bellwhether state where I live. I think Obama's race will pull enough Hillary Democrats to put McCain over the top.

MI 17 Obama - state has been trending Democratic in last 2 elections.

NH 4 Obama - part of the Northeast Democratic powerbase. If McCain wins this state he will be president.

MO 11 McCain - another bellwhether state, state has been trending Republican and McCain has been leading in MO for a while

Which leaves only NV and CO. By my count Obama has 264 and McCain 260. McCain must win both states to win, if Obama wins CO he wins, or if they split neither man gets 270.

I agree that Obama has uphill battles in Florida and Missouri, but Ohio? Looks to me that the numbers in Ohio have been very even for a while now. It's also a state that's been hit hard by economic woes, which makes it good territory for Democratic gains. If Obama wins it, it's just about game over.

As for Michigan, Obama has consistently led in pre-convention polling. Now polls may be wrong, and we still have two months to go. But it seems that McCain would have the uphill fight there.

The Obama campaign knows on-the-ground tactics. I think they'll put their resources in the right places. And it's also in their interest to go to states like Florida and Missouri, and also Indiana which is not on the list; they could flip, and it would force Republicans to spend money to play defense and keep them.

CNN is wrong. McCain will finish with fewer than 189 electoral votes.

Obama will win all of the states that usually vote Democratic and he will give McCain a big scare in most of the states that are expected to vote Republican. Even when McCain wins a staunchly Republican state, he won't win by more than a 5% margin.

Look for Obama to win big with support from voters under 35, minority voters, military voters, college-educated voters, and males.

That's right, males. There is no way in hell that McCain is going to win even 40% of the male vote. You'd be surprised how many guys out there will not vote for a woman, under any circumstances. When you add to that number all of the guys out there who have a problem with Sarah Palin personally, it becomes pretty clear that McCain made a terrible pick.

Any gain McCain sees from female voters will be completely erased by the number of conservative males who resent Sarah Palin. Women will not unite behind Palin and men will unite against her. You won't hear many guys talking about it, but when Election Day comes a quiet brotherhood of rednecks will stand together to defend their pride and put Sarah Palin back in her place.

That's my prediction. In a few months I'll be bragging that I was right and CNN was wrong. This year every state is a battleground state except for the states that Obama already has in the bag.

I really think the result will be something that won't be predicted. There are too many variables here that are unprecedented.

For every person who feels wierd about voting for a woman, there's an equal village idiot who won't vote for an African-American.

The males that won't vote for a woman will be more than offset by whites that won't vote for a black man

The question is how many of those whites wouldn't have voted for Obama anyway. Plus those numbers may already be included in state polling: there are plenty of non-racist reasons one could claim for not voting for Obama, so there wouldn't be any need to hide one's voting preference from a pollster.

I disagree. I think many conservative male voters will overlook race now that the gender card is in play.

Ohioforbuckeyes;

Although formatted differently, your math is the same as mine exactly. Your assumption is that Virginia is a loss but that Michigan with Nevada & Colorado create a win. That's precisely correct. In your case you have Michigan in Obama's column and that is the key to your electoral logic.

John

s3478 & Dsimon;

You are both correct that Obama may do much better by winning Ohio and several other toss-up states. But my analysis is for a close electoral race in which the likely states fall into place and Obama needs to piece together a final stretch proup of states. Obama could do worse as well. Therefore, I also agree that he can't focus only on the true toss-ups.

But assuming this is close, it is Virginia and Michigan all the way. If Ohio goes Obama, so do Michigan and Virginia in my view.

John

As long as you understand that they only provide a piece of the picture.

Three things that have to be considered when reviewing the polls:

1. Enthusiasm. It takes nothing to tell a pollster "I like candidate A"... But it takes a bit more to go wait in line and vote for him. Some polls actually track enthusiasm, and those polls show overwhelmingly that Obama support is FAR more enthusiastic than McCain support... This should slant the numbers in Obama's favor on November 4.

2. Ground Organization. A team on the ground is needed to get people to the polls, remind people to vote, turn out and convince last-minute support, make sure all supporters are registered within the necessary time frame, etc... The more volunteers and the better the organization, the more their support will be over-represented. This should slant the numbers in Obama's favor on November 4.

3. Cell Phones. The polls only do land-lines, not cell phones. By excluding cell phones you are excluding the young professional crowd and almost all college student respondents. Under-representing these groups would tend give an impression that McCain is doing better in the national polls, as only older and more traditional people carry land-lines. This too, should favor Obama on November 4.

I tend to think the polls are a nice indication, and probably will fall within the margin of error... I just think that the margin will slant heavily towards Obama... So, for instance, with the new Ohio poll that was released Sept 2 (Opinion Research): Obama 47%, McCain 45% +/-3-5%... I think of this as a current snapshot that shows that if the vote were held today, Obama would get somewhere between 47-52%, and McCain would get somewhere between 40-45%... and they'd split the remainder 50-50...

That is, of course, my interpretation... and we won't know until the votes are cast.. but I think having a tool to help see the current dynamics of the demographics does help... You just have to determine what other influences there are, and how those may favor one candidate or the other... and factor that in.

I think it's pretty obvious that Michigan will go Obama's way... He's led every single poll there since Hillary dropped out. It will be close, but as long as his ground team does their thing... he'll win.

Both Dakotas, Montana, Indiana, North Carolina, and Mississippi are all in play this year. Yes they represent a strong uphill battle, but Obama should spend some resources on a strong ground game in each of these states to make McCain and Palin waste resources they don't have. Spending very heavily in NC and MS will also help secure two more (very closely contested) senate seats... as the get-out-the-vote operations for Obama help all democrats.

Obama needs to come to theas key citys in michigan, pontiac, flint lansing, grand rapids,sault sainte marie.

oakland county is the largest county in michigan and more union workers. the saying goes like this so goes oakland county so goes michigan ,i almost forgot good ole detroit.

Krustykasbah,

The RNC and DNC don't devote any money to Senate or Congressional races, only presidential (and statewide organizations...so maybe a generic effect). There are separate arms for the other groups, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC or sometimes D triple C, D trip) for house races etc.

As of the last filing Obama/DNC and McCain/RNC were roughly equal and the DCCC and DSCC were both solidly ahead of their candidates. We'll see how the fundraising goes now-both McCain and Obama had large pools of disaffected donors that may still come into play now that the conventions are done.

Just an fyi.

Regards,

Blueshift