Conventional wisdom is that the running mate doesn't matter much -- we vote the top of the ticket--yada yada. Conventional wisdom is wrong this time. The Palin choice reveals a great deal about McCain's rationality. And it will also be impactful on the election, and potentially on the future of this country.

Here's why.

1. Regardless of his age, John McCain, as are we all, is of this generation. But this decision reveals volumes about the way he views the world. And it is scary. McCain's anachronistic world view affected his choice because he was grappling with the problem of the Democrats' successful appeal to young people, women, and blacks. How to solve it? Instead of understanding that the true appeal of Obama and Clinton went far beyond their race and gender -- he assumed it was just a trick. They must be popular because one is black and the other is female. He did not understand what these two transcedent politicians meant to their supporters and assumed he could counterprogram with any female he elevated.

2. The choice was not a good one politically and signals panic and recklessness. While he may pick up a few votes, he will lose more. McCain revealed himself to be out of touch and willing to bet the farm on a person who couldn't get a job as a staffer in Congress. He placed Palin, in his mind, on par with two national leaders. This is important-- would Sarah Palin have received a single delegate if she had run for President during the primaries? A resounding "no" but he cannot distinguish her from Clinton and Obama.

3. Here's the funniest/saddest part. Other than a few months as the Governor, she was on the council and mayor of a town of 5,000 people! Wasilla, Alaska is a town that any 15 year old could lead. A town with no typical American urban problems and no issues over which to make decisions at all. Forget about comparing hers to Obama's 20 years of impressive service -- what does this choice say about a man who has been railing about "experience," especially in foreign affairs, as the key qualification to be president. It says he is clueless and hypocritical. I mean Wasilla-- c'mon dude.

4. Palin has zero to offer in political compassion or devotion to service. Her most memorable achievement as a young woman, much like McCain's wife Cindy, is her 1984 victory in, I kid you not, the Miss Wasilla Beauty Pageant. This singular achievement in a town of 5,000 idle Alaskans, is apparently what catapulted her into politics-- if you call the Wasilla City Council politics. The only known activities she is remembered for in metropolitan Wasilla resulted in lawsuits, one of which will cost the small town millions of dollars due to her mismanagement. In a foreshadowing of a future scandal, she was also sued for firing the popular police chief.

5. Literally, 20 months ago, she was elected Governor. She was an outspoken cheerleader of the "bridge to nowhere" and caved only when it became a national scandal. Her biggest claim to fame recently is her firing of the Public Safety Commissioner this July because of his refusal to fire her former brother in law who was going through a nasty divorce with Palin's sister. She is currently being investigated for an abuse of power, along with every other elected official in Alaska.

6. Oh, lest we forget, she is the most right wing Governor in America. Without going down the list of issues, suffice to say she was an active supporter of Pat Buchanan's in his fringe candidacies for President. McCain apparently likes right wing rodeo queens. What on earth is this man smoking?

McCain might win! McCain might die in office! This is dangerous stuff!

• Has anyone considered whether or not a President can be impeached posthumously?

John Podesta, Bill Clinton's former chief of staff, described Sarah Who? Palin as combining the ideology of Dick Cheney with the qualifications of Dan Quayle. Now, I had expected John McCain to make a bold move in an attempt to narrow Barack Obama's persistently large lead in electoral votes. <link> But McCain's move is a reckless gamble.

Can McCain's gamble possibly pay off? No. The media are already onto the smell of blood. The nickname "Geraldine Quayle" is spreading. Palin has already committed her first gaffe by conceding that she's PUMA bait. Democrats should be positively gleeful at McCain's decision to shoot himself in the foot.

A young attorney in the law office where I work will be attending the Republican convention as a delegate next week. I just happened to walk into his office this morning during the announcement of McCain's VP choice. My first response to the announcement was that they were really going after the Hillary supporters. He agreed, paused momentarily, and then added that she is a great choice - she's pro-life, a lifetime member of the NRA, etc.

I admit that I, like most Americans, knew very little about Sarah Palin, the woman who is running for the heart-beat-away-from-the-presi­dency position, when I heard the announcement yesterday. Knowing nothing about her, it is easy to be intrigued by the fact that McCain selected a woman as a running mate. But I did a little homework yesterday evening and it didn't take long to realize that this woman has nothing to offer our country. I only hope that all women will take a little time to find out who Sarah Palin is.

But this is a remarkable choice. If nothing else, it should warn Americans about how McCain makes important decisions. He could have chosen a running mate responsibly. But for the first big decision he had to make, he made a purely political decision based on the mistaken idea that the women of this country will vote any woman into office whether they agree with her positions or not. Talk about out of touch!

Sarah Palin has been called a tough woman. She's about to face the toughest couple of months of her life as she is catapulted directly onto the national stage in the middle of a presidential campaign with no prior experience on that level. In just over a month she will take the stage with Joe Biden in the VP debate. She has no foreign policy experience. She has no real economic experience. She has admitted that she rarely even thinks about the war in Iraq, although that may have changed some now that her son will be going to Iraq, but too little, too late in my opinion. She believes all abortions should be outlawed. She does not believe in global warming. I really don't see how she gets through a debate on the issues that matter to this country. She'd better be tough if she hopes to get through this with any dignity left.

I agree with you, John. In this particular instance, as we are faced with the choice of electing a 72-year-old man as our president, we need to at least consider whether we would cast our vote for his running mate instead. McCain has made a choice for VP that validates his age as a real issue in this campaign. Idiot!

Yes. What a good way to look at this pick. If the ticket was reversed, would you consider it a good choice to lead this country? I doubt it.

The big issue is that the election is very close, and identity politics is likely to sway some. McCain knows that if 90% of women won't vote for McCain-Palin because there's a woman on the ticket, then 10% of them will--and that's more than 5% of the general population. That's hardly insignificant in a close race.

The pick is a terrible one from a matter of policy, but from a matter of politics, it's brilliant. The more anyone--Obama, Biden, the media, etc.--criticizes Palin, the more they can cry "sexism", and the stronger the identity connection becomes. The less anyone comes after her, the less she comes across as Danielle Quayle.

This is the general election, not the primaries. There are far more casual voters, who make their decision on spurious, superficial things. This is a very smart pick by McCain.

"There are far more casual voters, who make their decision on spurious, superficial things."

Voters can understand a simple number, 21 months. That's how long Sarah Who? Palin has held elective office higher than mayor of Wasilla, AK (pop. 6700). For most VP picks it's a given that they have the experience to assume the presidency. That's why spurious, superficial things come into play.

But Palin's stunning lack of experience is not a spurious superficial thing. Nobody with 21 months of government experience is qualified to assume the presidency. John McCain's choice of VP makes a mockery of his campaign slogan, "Country First". It won't take much effort on the part of the Barack Obama campaign to make this case even to casual voters.

Pwoxby;

I'm with you on this one. I don't understand how anyone doesn't think this will backfire. It is never brilliant to make a mockery of the process.

I am also intrigued, however, with the focus merely on experience. There may be potential cnadidates for President with no government experience. The problem here, however, is she was merely plucked out of nowhere with no testing or development as a national leader. McCain spoke to her once and is willing to throw the dice. It is really astonishing and frightening. McCain was supposed to be the best of the Republicans but he may turn out to be completely around the bend mentally.

Yikes!

John

John,

Dwight D. Eisenhower famously had held no elective office before the presidency. But who can resist pointing out that Sarah Palin is no Dwight D. Eisenhower?

Some commentators are snidely suggesting that John McCain be allowed a do-over on his VP pick. Sorry, but presidents don't get a chance at do-overs on reckless gambles like, say, invading Iraq without a plan for the occupation or cutting taxes without a plan for cutting spending.

McCain is following George W. Bush's disastrous examples not only in policy but in a style of decision making characterized by reckless gambles. Bush called it following his "gut". Bush imagined that he could look into Vladimir Putin's eyes and see his soul. McCain has done the same nutty thing with his VP pick.

Why is McCain condemned to adopt Bush's policies and character flaws as his own? This would have the grandeur of Greek tragedy to it were the fate of the nation not at stake. As you say, under the circumstances it's astonishing and frightening.

Hi John and Pwox,

Just heard from my semi-Republican upstairs neighbor that she would not be voting for the "McCain/Pander ticket."

I concur (and have argued in the past) that it's possible to lead this country with very little experience in government (see Lincoln, Abraham; Eisenhower, Dwight D.; Washington, George, and, to a lesser extent, Roosevelt, T. and F.D.). However, 20 months as governor? At least Lincoln had some national experience and both Eisenhower and Washington had foreign-policy and military experience. And, not to knock Alaska, but my native state of Delaware (go Joe!) has more people.

However, I see this pick in terms of a card game: Obama has a lot of cards on the table, and they're great big kings and aces. McCain doesn't have nearly as many good cards and some pretty high-profile bad ones (Bush is at best a deuce...notice how he's skipping the convention to deal with the convenient excuse hurricane?). So McCain decides to throw out a joker and see what he can do. Or, to use another metaphor, he realizes that if he advances his pawn to a Queen, Obama still has him beat, so he turns it into a knight instead: a minor piece, but one that can be a game-changer in the endgame if the board is lined up just right. I'll be interested to see how it plays from here.

Two things I'd like clarification on: I've seen twice on this board that Palin left her town of Wasilla millions of dollars in debt...can anyone clarify how this happened or cite a reference? Also, when did she admit that she "rarely even thinks about the war in Iraq"?

SalientMan,

I don't know about the Wasilla debt. However, the reference to Sarah Palin rarely thinking about the war in Iraq, was not a direct quote and I knew it wasn't a terribly recent statement. The article linked below mentions a couple of 2007 interviews. In my defense, I did say that since then she may be thinking more about the war in Iraq. At any rate, that war has been around for a while now....

<link>

I'm not sure where I originally read or heard that she hadn't thought much about the war in Iraq.

Thanks for the clarification, brownapril! Still wondering about the debt, but I imagine John will enlighten me (as he so often does) soon...

Salientman;

I'm learning something about Wkipedia. When I wrote the post the Wikipedia site for Palin described two lawsuits generated against Wasilla by Palin. The first was the firing of the Police Chief. At the time I read the entry it didn't refer to a cost. Nor did I. Now the site includes a vigorous defense of Palin and a reference to the fact that the suit was dismissed. Brand new material.

The second suit described in Wikipedia was a land rezoning dispute of some kind and the reference to the cost was described as well as the merits. (I did not say she left the town millions of dollars in debt, just that a lawsuit would cost the town this amount.) These Alaskan towns as well as the State have suprluses running out of their ears.

Surprise, Wikipedia doesn't have any reference to the second lawsuit anymore. The entire Wikipedia description of Palin is glowing.

More comment: I am a bit concerned about our emphasis on the ball game here. Palin isn't some scandalous person despite my own rhetoric. And second guessing whether she will help the ticket or not -- is fun-- but I'm wrong half the time.

The issue that is frightening to me is that even McCain doesn't know this person, and there is no support base or basis to entrust her with this nomination.

Let's assume she is better than we think. The idea of his plucking her out of obscurity and thrusting her upon the convention just a couple of days before her nomination is outrageous. Neither the press nor the Republican delegates themselves can make a reasoned inquiry or choice. Obviously, McCain doesn't know her well. This is potentially the American presidency at stake here. McCain is really a dangerous ass----!

John

Palin vs Obama:

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<link>

I'd rather have Palin any day - than a leftist community organizer with friends and mentors the likes of rev Wright, Ayres, Rezko, Davis, ect...

Hah! Even your Wall Street Journal link had to describe John McCain's pick of a running mate as an "unconventional risk". That's a euphemism for what anybody not a right-wing commentator would call a desperate gamble.

Why the desperate gamble? Look at what polls indicate the electoral vote map looks like: <link> This is not a pretty picture for McCain. He has to get 2/3 of the toss up electoral votes. Remember when Hillary Clinton had to get 2/3 of the remaining delegates in the primaries? Her political obituary was being written.

'Forget about comparing hers to Obama's 20 years of impressive service --'

doing what? kissing some hate filled preachers and some terrorists asses whilst 'community organizing'?

BTW 'community organizing' is lib speak for pushing government dependence.