I normally agree with Dickerson's analysis, but I think he whiffed a little on this one. I agree that Obama is not the front runner and HRC is. I agree that 'the resume thing' is going to come up. But today's essay implies that he has heaven and earth to move simply to catch up to Clinton. Here's why it's not true.

1) Obama's attack on Clinton's Iraq vote isn't narrow, it's everything. Bush relied on insiders instead of his own vision. HRC relied on insiders instead of her own vision. A casual observer would, in the lead up to the war, have had more questions than anyone in our professional leadership caste. Frankly, HRC shares Bush's arrogance with respect to foreign policy and beltway 'establishmentarianism'. Her vote proves it. This isn't a paper issue, it's a fundamental reason why many in this country simply won't vote for HRC no matter what. Shouldn't leaders be punished for folding to the CW when the CW ends up being horribly, horribly wrong?

2) HRC has a ceiling and Obama may not -- with men and independents. She'll also ensure a factional and chippy political debate for the next 8 years.

3) We need a few years off from boomer scions in the White House.

We sit at a moment of tremendous frustration with our government. Hillary is here because she's been spending the last 15 years getting ready for this moment. Obama is here because voters are unbelievably dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.

When the issue is 'corrupt/arrogant/inept insiders' vs 'naive outsiders', resumes don't add up to much. It's just a way of articulating what people already think. Call it a hunch, but when Edwards and Kucinich drop out of the race, do you think their supporters are going to flock to HRC's camp? I doubt it. The Democratic party loyalists are deeply divided. Clinton is going to have to be risky and shake off her intellectual lethargy if she wants to really rid herself of the Obama revolution. She might do it! But she might not.

really really good point about who Primary candidate's supporters will flock to once the race narrows... but you think Edwards will drop out before the primary?

Edwards is polling well in Iowa. But he's polling so badly nationally. Maybe he's got info that I don't (almost a given), but I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which he wins Iowa and then somehow parlays that into a party nomination. Is he even raising enough money to be competitive in more than one primary?

Edwards isn't done, of course. But he's getting there.

Your points are excellent, especially the question of where Edwards and Kucinich's voters will go to once the aforementioned candidates go belly up. I believe Edwards' will go with Clinton and Kucinich's will go with Obama. That will be a net win for Clinton since Edwards has far more followers than Kucinich.

You're right that people are fed up with the Establishment. But they're more fed up with an incompetent establishment, especially after 8 years of Bushian incompetence.

Now, if Obama was really an outsider with compelling new policies to offer the voter, and perhaps with a track record of running a successful business, or city or state, he'd be formidable. But policy-wise he's indistinguishable from any other Dem, and he has no real track records of running anything. People are excited by his likeable, fresh young personality, not necessarily his ideas. He's fresh now. The super long campaign does not help him stay fresh. Advantage: Clinton.

The war? Everyone knows we are in the beginning of the end, and that whomever is voted in - even a Republican - our troops our coming home. So, does Clinton's vote for the war really hurt her? Not that much. If anything she looks "tough" on military and national security matters. Her vote to continue funding the troops helps, rather than hinders her.

I think that Obama is very likeable and people want him to succeed. And that emotion is going to carry him well into the primaries. But ultimately voters are quite pragmatic. I think the big shake-up will come by the second primary state votes, when it will be clear that Hilary has the nomination locked up and that Obama has run his course.

THEN, Hilary will choose Obama as her Veep, and being the smart man he is, he'll jump at that chance. And Hilary/Obama will simply crush the GOP contender, who will probably be a plastic, poorly run Romney campaign.

Good points, Early Bird. I'll admit that I'm someone who would vote for HRC in the general election, but I hope like hell that she doesn't get there.

So while I'm openly shilling for Obama, I'd just also like to say: Clinton should be farther ahead in the polls than she is. It's still early, and I honestly don't think she's going to gain support as she goes along without her changing up her image a little. Maybe she'll come across a moment to really broaden her appeal, but I'm a little worried that Ms. Electability will end up being as wooden and easy a target as Kerry. Her hippy background, her letters from college, her nanny-state Oprahisms, her weird financial dealings.

We all thought Kerry was the 'safe' choice too, and look where that got us.

Another good point.

I really like Obama a lot on a personal basis and strongly prefer him to her personality-wise.

The odd thing is that I've found that I've gone from a point of not being able to stand Hilary (will someone teach her to modulate her voice?: she always sounds like she's trying to shout over a crowd.) to someone who is finding himself sort of thawing out to her.

Osama will think twice about Obama. Kissingers advice isn't bad either.

Feed off your useless wars and martyrs