I suggest that Fred Kaplan's employ a slightly different paradigm when writing about whether President Bush is a risk-taker or risk averse. The President's behavior isa that of a person who is risk neutral. The well document lack of planning for the war is the behavior of a risk neutral person. Goalies in hockey and soccer are risk neutral. There is little or nothing that they can do to alter the risk of scoring except to depend on their training and reflexes.

Risk neutral persons are not managers or strategists. To have risk neutral leadership is difficult to endure and politically destructive.

Mr. Wilson, I find your comment curious. First, my understanding of a risk neutral person is one who does not assign any extra weight to upside versus down side outcomes. All decisions are based on pure expected value calculations.

Two, I have not noticed any comment by Mr. Kaplan about President's Busk risk taking - maybe I missed something. I do read his columns regularily as I think he is one best analytical columnist around.

Three, President Bush reminds me of a complusive gambler who arbitrarily assigns a positive net outcome to the next throw no matter what the historical precendence is.