What Obama and the Dems should have learned during the vacation:

1. If the election were held today, McCain would win. As Obama was vacating, the pols for the key states of OH, NC, VA, IN has been drifting in McCain's favor. For the first time in several months the RCP electoral vote map with no toss ups shows McCain with enough electoral votes to win the election. The media is starting to pick up and to report on this trend. The Obama candidacy can no longer campaign like it is far ahead.

2. The Obama campaign has target the right key states. I have heard comments that the Obama campaign thinks it can win GA, IN, and NC - GET REAL. The Dems have not won in NC like 30 years, GA once in 30 years, IN in like 50 years. The voting history pattern for these states indicate that Dems will struggle in these states. Bill Clinton did make headway in these states and other Republican leaning states, but only because the Ross Perot candidacy helped to split the Republican vote. This time the third party candidates will not be much of a factor. Instead Obama should concentrate on more obtainable targets like OH, CO, and NV. Whoever wins OH will win the election. Spending money in GA and NC is wasting resources.

3. The swing constituency this election will be white blue collar workers. This is the constituency that in which Clinton clobbered Obama in the primaries and to this day Obama is still struggling with this group. Obama needs to get a super majority of these voters in November to win especially in key states like OH, PA, and MI - McCain on the other hand only has to make inroads in this group to win. The McCain campaign is also targeting this group.

4. The key to finding out if your campaign is getting its message out and that the message is understood is if a sixth grader can list the top 3 to 5 themes of your campaign, and can that student describe your position on key issues in 30 words or less. This is not to suggest the American voter is stupid, but that the voters attention span for politics is short. Obama lawyer-like manner of answering questions and lawyer-like answers is not seen by many voters as being thoughful as some posters and media types believe, but as being wishy washy, slimy, etc. Especially to the key constituency in this election - white blue collar voters. The Obama campaign has to use this criteria to evaluate its message - as of right now it fails this test. They need to hone their message.

5. Do not underestimate McCain and his campaign. Do not make the same mistake that Gore and Kerry made that they are so much smarter than their opposition.

6. This key issue in this election for the swing voter is their comfort level with Obama, and thus far in looking at the pols many voters are still uncomfortable with Obama - that is why McCain is still in this race. Issue oriented voters have already decided on who they will vote for - in fact 90% of the electorate has already made up their minds. Voters already know McCain because of his political history and POW status. The big unknown is Obama. That is why the McCain campaign has made big inroads with its rock star campaign.

7. So far this race is not shaping up to be like 1960 - Kennedy elected as first Roman Catholic president or 1980 - when voters elected Reagan arguably the most conservative president in history, but is eriely starting to shape up like 2004. In 2004 Bush was running against Kerry. Bush was viewed as dumb and booring, and Kerry was viewed as lawyer-like and as a flip-flopper. Kerry has a lead going into the summer. Then the swiftboat ads appeared. Kerry did not react too much to the ads and Bush started moving up in the pols. Then came the conventions. Kerry selected a young seemly agressive VP. In the debates - Kerry won the first debate and Bush and Cheney won the rest of the debates. Kerry's campaign was very confident during the fall stretch. On election day the media was predicting a Kerry victory. As we all know Bush won the election. Substitute McCain for Bush and Obama for Kerry for this scenerio. Obama was ahead until the McCain ads about Obama being a rock star started being shown - similar to the time the swiftboat ads came out. At convention time the candidates are essentially tied. If the Obama campaign views the election like the 2004 election it can avoid some of the same mistakes Kerry made otherwise history just may repeat itself.

8. In 2004 the election was essentially over by convention time. The swiftboat ads came out and Kerry did not respond. Also by that time the Bush team successful pinned the flip-flop and elist label on Kerry. That was the key point in the election. The key question for the Obama campaign is have we reached the key point in this campaign. As of right now McCain is now ahead because of his attack ads, the idea of Obama being a flip-flopper and an elist is starting to sink into the voter's minds, and the Obama campaign is struggling. The window of opportunity in this election is starting to close.

My opinion is that if the Obama ignores the above thoughts, Obama can spend his next vacation in Hawaii watching McCain take the oath of office. Prediction: McCain wins 274 to 264.

Theres a lot here with some pretty good points. My quick point though is that the current RCP map is basically McCain's best case scenario, and forcing the toss-ups into either camp at this point doesn't really make sense given the margin of error in any poll. Even if McCain got 2/3rds of the current tossup's I don't think he really wins, so Obama is still in a better situation than he seems to be.

Actually Obama is doing the right strategy here. Let McCain and his hyper aggressive nazi brown shirts in the Faux Snooze and right wing radio pour their hate on and lets see what is sticking and what isnt.

So far the McCain supporters are not doing much damage other than their fear and smear campaign...raise taxes...hate whitey...Rev Wright...same ol same ol.

Meanwhile Obama is staying out of the limelight...so much for the rock star.

In the end Obama will take his money and begin broadcasting the truth that got him where he is already-that the McCain campaign has two clear objectives--keep the Bush policies in place and stack the Supreme Court in order to remove womens right to choose what they can do with their own bodies. McCain will promptly lose the womens vote and the anti war vote. From there he can target the economy--just how will McCain get jobs for working Americans not associated with the military? What John? No answers?

The VP vote will no doubt be critical in this election too. McCain is likely to give in and pick a neocon-assuring women and anti war voters that Bush has in fact got a lasting position with republicans. Obama need only pick a decent moderate-maybe even one wbo is similar to Hillary without the attitude.

As for GA, the black vote will emerge as never before. Ohio can no longer ignore the fact that eight years of Bush brought no improvement in the economy. These states are far more vulnerable than the original poster imagines.

I think you make a well reasoned statement of your views. I am not sure I fully agree with some of your reasoning but in general it speaks to many of the issues that I see.

I agree Obama has to show some political courage. Draw a line in the sand and stand by it. His supporters make a big deal about McCain and some shifts that he has made but I thin K Rove is right when he said talking about Obama changing would not work. We all know that politicians are shifty. To say that they are is only stating the obvious.

But McCain has demonstrated political and personal courage. The surge, agreeing with global warming, not agreeing to drill in ANWAR are all examples of political courage. His personal courage and convictions are at a level that those who question it only look like idiots.

Obama needs to show he has conviction on something.

The Real RML I do not know if you just have tunnel vision, are dishonest or only know a little bit.

For one comparing the Reps to Nazi's is pretty offensive to a big group of people.

Raising taxes is not an issue, lying is not an issue as in I had no idea that Wright was like that, and pointing out that he has no relevant experience is not an issue what is. His claim to fame is his ability to make good decisions and there are a host of decisions that are bad.

The Dem aligned 527's have far more money than the Rep's do. Did you see that ad that suggested that McCain was going to take that womans baby away. Nothing to do with fear. Hint, volunteer army.

If he spends too much time trying to bash McCain, McCain wins. He needs to say where he stands. His main negative is that people think he is an empty suit. So what if you prove that some of McCain's ideas are not good at least he has ideas and is willing to stand by them. Obama is still an empty suit that is a name caller. It also goes against his claim of conducting himself in a new way. He would just provide one more proof that he is nothing new and different.

The supreme court thing is just silly, stupid and absolutely a scare tactic. McCain cannot get anyone on the supreme court without the blessing of congress who will be overwhelmingly democratic. He would have to pick one that could be accepted.

Oh and find an economist that says that raising corporate taxes and capital gains taxes will spur on new jobs.

Find an economist that will say that taking away the money going to oil companies and then tack on a windfall tax to boot is going to do anything other than raise gas prices a lot.

I think that the critical VP pick is McCain's. If he picks Lieberman or Ridge, well time to go follow the baseball playoffs. Obama probably could not hurt himself no matter who he picks but I think Hillary would help him. I do not think anyone else actually would help his chances.

I am from PA which has Obama in the lead but in my area there are more Dem's against him than for him. There is no realization that needs to go on. Obama's plan to tax coal and natural gas will hurt PA for sure. We love Hillary here and see Obama as a radical liberal so he has to somehow prove he is not or things will stay as they are.

Raptor,

You said "I am from PA which has Obama in the lead but in my area there are more Dem's against him than for him. There is no realization that needs to go on. Obama's plan to tax coal and natural gas will hurt PA for sure. We love Hillary here and see Obama as a radical liberal so he has to somehow prove he is not or things will stay as they are."

Its pretty hard to convince people they are wrong, and you are asking Obama to prove a negative ("I am a not a crazy liberal").

Clearly that has to be part of his strategy, but if he seems to be focusing too much on it, then he simply reinforces the image. The whole "methinks he doth protest too much" thing. I think Obama can go pretty negative without ruining his image, so long as its negative on policy positions not personal attacks. Fortunately, there are a whole lot of openings to attack McCain on. I mean a lot of people still somehow think the guy is pro-choice even though he just stated life begins at conception. Really, Obama will benefit from the current low expectations of him (Republicans going on about him as some crazy liberal, unable to talk without a teleprompter, not knowing anything about foreign policy etc.).

Let's chat again AFTER the debates. :-)

"The surge, agreeing with global warming, not agreeing to drill in ANWAR are all examples of political courage."

Except I just heard a clip of McCain saying we should drill drill drill on the coasts, ANWAR, you name it, stick a drill in it.

So that courage you speak so highly of? McCain used to have it. He's a neo-con puppet now. He's backed down on every issue he used to stand up to Bush on. Tax breaks in a time of war? McCain used to oppose it, he used to be one of the sane Repub voices on that issue, now he's all over making them permanent. His maverick days are over.

Oh my more party spin. I watched an interview last night where the Dem representative was asked about the saddleback debate and if he thought Obama did well. The answer which was so very much reminiscent of how W always replied, was that one thing he is sure is that McCain is four more years of bush and Obama is not.

You really misstate what McCain said and that in my mind totally invalidates your view. McCain said that he would keep the cuts in place but he would also work to cut out government spending. Obama earmark burn rate 1 mil a day McCain earmark burn rate $0.

OK say I agree that every stand that McCain made showed no political or personal courage.

What position did Obama take where he took a position that put him in jeopardy of getting elected. Was it the time he eliminated competition, or dragged out his war speech when being against the war became popular. Yes there are tapes of him saying he did not know what he would do if he had to vote in the Senate of course that was when being against the war was not so popular.

I am not aware of any particular stand he ever took that shows a willingness to stand on his position when doing so would put him at some kind of obvious risk.

Enlighten me.

What risk?

Supporting a womans right to cjhoose. Instantly lost him most Saddleback votes.

And not letting the rich jerks keep all their ill gotten gains but taxing them for their war profiteering-Im sure that cost Obama votes too.

Presonally I would have told Obama to not waste time with Saddleback and other Christian extremist groups.

But you asked.

You call that risk. I think his base has far more in favor of abortions than having them banned.

hmm a Democrat saying we should tax the rich. yea that is really a very scary position for a Dem to take.

He has to eventually talk to some groups that are not waiting with palm leaves for his arrival.

If that is the best you can do, I think you proved my point far better than I ever could.

Now if Obama would come out and say that he did not believe that Regan was the best president that the US has ever seen I might agree that he has indeed taken some very risky positions

Reagan was a waste of Oxygen.

He either knew and lied about Iran Contra or was stupid enough to not know about it.

His economic policies borrowed recklessly and led to the recession of Bush I, costing thousands of jobs and sending the economy into a major tailspin.

The man was asleep at meetings.

The "best" president is even credited with the fall of the Soviets (so much for the DECADES of work by men and women from BOTH parties).

Hero worship should be saved for real heroes. Reagan was a jerk and a head piece for the same criminals who brought you Richard M Nixon and George W Bush. Faces like Cheney and Rummsfeld have been behind the scenes in Washington for over 20 years constantly mucking with the planet, foreign policy, and the economy-and where they were allowed to advise we had nothing but massive failures, death, and debt.

You really did not get it did you. Every point was sarcastic. For Obama to say he is for women's rights and does not believe Regan did that great of a job are all obvious Dem positions.

It does not matter if he said it at Saddleback. I doubt he lost votes because he stated he is pro abortion. I find it very unlikely that this stand was unknown.

Courage is taking a stand because you feel it is right while not being popular. Then holding their ground, willing to face the consequences.

"pro abortion"

The democratic party is NOT pro abortion. Most people are not pro abotion.

They are PRO CHOICE. This means that the woman decides whether or not she gets an abortion based on the information her doctor gives her and her personal CHOICE. The decision is both a medical one and a personal one. Since the entire argument against abortion is based on SOME religious beliefs it is an infringement on the rights of the individual to force someone to make a decision based on someone else's religion and or personal sense of morality or social responsibility.

In addition, both parties can and should encourage birth control and make adoption a better option by reducing the many financial and official obstacles to those who want to adopt. I can see no reason we cannot agree on these things (other than those who also object to birth control).

MANY who are pro choice would not peronally choose to terminate a pregnacy (myself included) unless it were medically advisable because a severely handicapped child would result. This was the opinion of many catholic democrats including John Kerry (the republicans tried to make this point into an example of him flip flopping!).

This is a single issue that many religious nutties just cannot get past. They insist not only on not taking personal responsibility for themselves on this issue (making that choice) but they want to force others to make their same sense with the backing of the law. They are prepared to jail women for making a choice other than theirs.

No woman voting in this election should be voting for McCain unless they like the idea of being forced to carry an unwanted pregnancy to term. To bring the products of rape and incest and worse into this world by force of government.

THAT is not life. Unless you count the life sentence it represents to the unwanted and unloved children it will bring into the world or the countless victims of poverty it will introduce into government programs-parents unable to support forced baby.

RML wrote:

"MANY who are pro choice would not peronally choose to terminate a pregnacy (myself included) unless it were medically advisable because a severely handicapped child would result."

This comment to me is chilling. A handicapped child is expendable because it does not fit in as what is considered normal. If having the child would jeopardize the mothers health or their was no possibility that they would live I can see this logic. But if a kid has downs syndrome kill it.

I think a woman should have her rights but that type of logic just bothers me.

As far as religious nutties go, I listened to a sermon that Rev Wright gave and he said something like your momma loved you, she did not abort you, she loved you.

I think that if you buy into religion, I think you have to think that an abortion is murder. As such you have to cry out against it.

If you toss out all the laws that are an extension of religious belief, attorney's will have to look for a job. I agree that extremism ends up with a view that is very restrictive, but I think they have a right to express it. I believe a woman should have her choice but I can see merit in the belief that killing a fetus is killing a human.

I think voting based upon the abortion issue is just wrong.

Lastly your argument is almost like those sappy emails that get sent around. All emotional about these poor kids born to parents that did not want them.

Kids that were wanted have been abused and grew into worthless pieces of human flesh. Kids that were not wanted by their parents have grown into very productive individuals.