This map is way too pro Obama. It lists most of the solid south plus Texas as "leaning" McCain and Florida as a toss-up. Somebody's drinking the kool aid. Real Clear Politics has Obama up by only 5 electoral votes without tossup states, way down from the 317 he once enjoyed. It ain't near over folks.

You can check the polling for each state individually. Which state's numbers do you think are screwed up?

Here is another site that is in pretty good agreement with Slate:

http://www.pollster.com/

But the fact is that the electoral vote estimate is quite sensitive to how state-by-state polls are analyzed. This site shows Obama and McCain almost tied in electoral votes:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

poll has McCain with a 5 point lead over Obama..... Yeah, I think the map is wrong, but then Slate has been so overwhelmingly pro-Obama since the primaries, I'm really not surprised.

I think the polls are vastly underestimating Obama's lead. They don't know how to reach the millions of young people, most of whom don't have land lines and don't answer polling questions and most of whom will vote for Obama. In their quest to poll "likely voters" they are fighting the last war.

elders do. Obama's big lead is probably overestimated in this demographic.

Not really. Do some basic resarch on the political preferences of those under 30 and you will see some striking differences between their views and those of their elders. They are far more socially liberal and accepting of others for one thing.

Firstly, to the person who said McCain has a 5 point lead in the polls--do you even know which one you are citing? It was one Zogby poll--Zogby, who screwed up New Hampshire by 15 points, and has consistenly polled poorly.

But this is the perception the media will shove down your throat--no, really the race is close. McCain is more maverick than you think. Obama might make a gaffe in Europe, so he's weak. The amount of negative coverage you see on Obama is just proof the MSM has to knock him down to McCain's level.

As for the young person vote, the idea that young people vote as their elders do is flawed. They almost always are more liberal. Not only that, but it is very hard to poll cell-phone only users. These are mainly people in Obama's demographic.

don't fit your world view, but accept them when they do. I swear, Obama suppoters have raised cognitive dissonance to a whole new level.

I didn't ignore it, I discredited it. There's a difference.

How's this for cognitive dissonance: 8 years of America going downhill, an approval rating in the 20s for Bush, yet someone who agrees with Bush 95% (closer to 97% now) of the time is hanging in there in the polls.

Checking on pollster.com for North Carolina, I saw in the polling history for the state that Zogby had Obama leading by almost the exact same percentage in mid-June. No other poll since, other than Zogby, reflects a similar result. The average shows McCain consistently ahead there by 3-5 percent. I think it's safe to say the Zogby poll is an exclusive outlier.

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djyman15:

I didn't ignore it, I discredited it. There's a difference.

How's this for cognitive dissonance: 8 years of America going downhill, an approval rating in the 20s for Bush, yet someone who agrees with Bush 95% (closer to 97% now) of the time is hanging in there in the polls.

Sounds right ot me... you're clearly very confused about how stupid this country is... :)

This map's guided by computer programming. Any code that suggests Texas is a leaning red state and not yet secured is completely messed up.

Best tracking I've seen is at pollster, and good numbers at realclearpolitics.

yeah your right on that cognitive dissonance....8 years of it.............scary McCain

Ridry:

djyman15:

I didn't ignore it, I discredited it. There's a difference.

How's this for cognitive dissonance: 8 years of America going downhill, an approval rating in the 20s for Bush, yet someone who agrees with Bush 95% (closer to 97% now) of the time is hanging in there in the polls.

Sounds right ot me... you're clearly very confused about how stupid this country is... :)

oh I'm very aware of how stupid this country is. All you have to do is watch vh1 and fox news