I assume the situation can get worse before it gets better, especially if McCain starts a toughman contest during the campaign.

Deterioration between Washington and Moscow plays into an Iran sortie before November as Russia takes the place of North Korea in the two-country whackamole game the US tried to get rid of by settling with Pyongyang. The US tries to put Russia back in the box by isolating Russia diplomatically, the Russians oblige by selling (more?) air defenses to the Iranians, the Israelis want to act before the systems are in place and do so, the Iranians mine the Strait of Hormuz and target tankers to put pressure on oil supply, the US Navy responds and we're off to the races.

I guess the straight-up scenario is to eat crow. The Russians are good; the US admits that the satellite states don't really matter beyond vanity, gives the Russians the respect they've craved for 10 years and centralizes American capacity so we can stay focused on Iraq and Iran. Maybe we can even save the missle defense radar.

The other scenario puts us into the wider conflict in the Mideast off-balance and not on terms we dictate. Unless of course that is what the current, lameduck administration needs politically to expand the conflict at a critical time when no one has the wherewithal to do it. The question there I guess is whether the Iranian front can be opened wide enough to actually stop the bomb. The Iranians will use proportionality to try and keep the stew cool enough from burning--half-cooked conflict means they keep the bomb long enough to test it. The US looks hypocritical by going hard against Iran after chiding Russia for overreacting in Ossetia. Any wedge driven between the US and the tired Brits is gravy. The Russians, not tied to worrying about an Iranian bomb they assume Iran will get anyway, have a very strong hand.

Once the Iran Chapter has started for the US, a face losing/saving agreement with Moscow is reached--although as the Mid-east commitment deepens the game becomes only more useful against the United States. To the Russians. And the Chinese Navy and oil prospectors in Malacca and the Pacific. And Mr. Kim. And Mr. Chavez.

It's January. Welcome to the new job, Mr. President.

Any other way to play this?