From today's vantage point the presidential election looks as though it is Obama's to lose... but not so fast... there are 80 days left and here are the events to look for that will decide who occupies the White House for next four years.

1. The Conventions. The Democrats, on the surface they appear to have the clear advantage here, with star power, enthusiasm, most likely a battleground state VP pick (likely Bayh) who actually delivers a state, the hopeful transformation of the Clintons into true blue supporters (look for a pair of sock 'em speeches); Mark Warner as keynote, and of course Obama rippin' it up with the speech of his life on the fourth day. The Republicans. on the other hand, have a sort of lackluster line up, a lackluster nominee, potential protests from the Ron Paul people, and lots of Republican Governors and Senators not showing up. McCain needs some pzzazz, which he is likely only to get from his VP pick, which looks more and more to be Tom Ridge. Of course, with Tom Ridge, one of McCain's advantages with Catholics and pro-life Protestants will reduce his chances for a large republican turnout-- because Ridge is pro-choice.
2. Endorsements. Obama: Obama has already received a number of Republican endorsements but none is so important as Colin Powell's. The money is on Powell either sitting this out or endorsing Obama. If that happens it is good for a hard point in the polls. Other endorsements which are unlikely but would carry weight for Obama would be Independent Mayor Bloomberg, Bill and Melinda Gates, and Brent Scrowcroft. McCain. Bloomberg and Powell would also be catches for McCain, but less likely to go for him. Angelina Jolie has been playing hard to get but can't be worth much. In fact, it is hard to imagine any key endorsements which will actually help McCain, although some could go the other way and really hurt.
3. The Economy. This is probably set in stone by now. The jobs issue, the healthcare issue, the energy issue all play to Obama's strengths. However, McCain has shown adeptness in taking inconsequential issues such as offshore drilling and spinning them into major solutions. Obama's task is to lay out a clear distinction between his comprehensive plans and McCain's continuation of Bush's failed approaches.
4. The Wars. With wars, predatory and civil, raging all of over the planet, anything can happen. Conventional wisdom is that McCain gains the worse it gets. In Iraq, although he has argued the success of the "surge," he may actually do better if Iraq explodes, leaving Americans more worried about an inflexible timeline withdrawal. Afghanistan and Pakistan, if they heat up, probably favors Obama since he has been campaignnig to free up troops to bolster that effort and to supercharge dilpomacy with Pakistan. Russia/Georgia is more complicated since it seems on the surface that McCain benefits from this situation continuing to spiral. But that may backfire for two reasons: (a) McCain's strong anti-Russian rhetoric may scare folks about another cold war; and (b) Obama, who plays less from the hip, will control the diplomatic message with Susan Rice at the helm of the far superior foreign relations team.
5. The Debates. At the risk of being ageist, McCain has clearly lost a few steps in the oratory department over the last eight years. Obama should win all three debates handily.
6. Money for Battleground States. Obama will outspend McCain 2-1 in the states that matter. On the other hand, 527's will go after Obama on everything from Reverend Wright, drugs, radical liberalism, patriotism, to inexperience. A key to the race is whether Obama's team is ready in advance for this barrage with a strategy to neutralize the blows.
7. Registration & Turnout. The past two years have seen remarkable shifts in registration toward the Democrats. The wrong track number hovers around 80%. In part, due to the exciting Democratic party primaries, literally ten million more Democratic-leaning voters may go to the polls on November 4. This is a remarkable advantage not being picked up in the current polling.
8. Battleground Strategy. Obama has a much stronger organization and a lot more money. His "larger electoral map" strategy need not render his operation thin anywhere due to these advantages. As a result, McCain will have to scramble in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. He may not be able to effectively compete in Virginia, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. Obama is either leading or within shooting distance in all 13 of these states. Obama needs to do well, but McCain needs to do super well to get to the magic 270.

Advantage: Obama. Let's hope we don't screw it up.

The average of national poll trends since the end of the primaries have shown Barack Obama with a small but consistent lead over John McCain. <link>

The narrowness of Obama's lead has given pundits hours to bloviate on why his lead isn't larger and it has given Republicans some cause for optimism. But when state-by-state polls are used to see the electoral vote picture, any cause for Republican optimism evaporates. <link>

Obama needs to pick up 32 electoral votes in toss up states to win whereas McCain has to pick up 107 electoral votes in those states to win. Of the toss up states, eight are rich in electoral votes. If Obama picks up just two or three of those states, it's over for McCain.

Always super-informative. Thanks, fellas.

It occurred to me belatedly that another event may effect the election. Does the bipartisan energy compromise come to the floor? If it does and Obama votes for it while McCain does not, especially if it passes, this would be a boon to Obama.

To hell with abortion. That probably helps McCain with more Independents than it hurts him with conservative Christians. I just can't believe that McCain wants to run with Mr. Color Code from Homeland Security. Maybe he should also consider Brownie -- he did a "heckuva job" at FEMA.

As for Obama's pick, I still think that Biden is as likely as Bayh.

Nightswimmer;

I don't think McCain gains all that much on the abortion issue among independents with a VP since his own position remains pro-life. But it is a signal to the right, and this year their lack enthusiasm could be fatal to McCain. The irony would be if McCain put all of his marbles on Pennsylvania and lost it plus a couple of other states.

I like Biden too. It's between overall gravitas, on the one hand, and Indiana and mini-gravitas on the other. My sense is that Obama's people are mathematical. That's how they won the nomination. Now, my guess is that they are basing everything on electoral math which points to Bayh. But Biden is a better choice for governing and would be a superb surrogate and debater.

John

Think about the Party affiliation of the Governors of those two states. They appoint replacements.

Smart. You got me there. Go Biden!

Some critics say that Obama has peaked too soon. Part of the problem is that the election has been going on for two years. How long can he go on saying, "this is the moment."

Does Obama need a boost? Will the VP choice give him that boost? These are some relevant questions.

The question is whether he really has peaked. Your questions are very relevant. Only time will tell.

With Barack Obama having only a small lead over John McCain in the nation-wide polls, the importance of the debates is looming larger.

Obama's speechifying skills won't help him much. Indeed, McCain's crisp answers at Pastor Rick Warren's forum has the Obama camp rattled. Obama has to lose the hemming and hawing.

To Obama's further disadvantage, debates are combat and that's something McCain can relate to. On the other hand, McCain's combativeness might be his undoing if he gives the appearance of not controlling it. It will be a very interesting set of contests.

John McCain did a good job of reciting boilerplate right-wing talking points that triggered a Pavlovian applause response among the almost exclusively Republican audience at Saddleback. But the applause meter is not the primary factor in judging the performances in this event.

Not only was the forum nationally televised, it is currently being re-hashed ad nauseum on all of the cable news shows. Detailed analysis of the performances don't appear to be giving McCain the bump in the polls that many Republicans had hoped for.

John McCain won't have a friendly preacher tossing him questions in a real debate. He will face a combative and intellectually superior opponent. I will be surprised if he manages to avoid exploding on-stage.