From today's vantage point the presidential election looks as though it is Obama's to lose... there are 80 or so days left and here are the events to look for that will decide who occupies the White House for next four years.

1. The Energy Compromise Bill. If Obama can get credit for getting the democrats to vote on and approve the energy compromise bill -- look for his numbers to rise. What will McCain do? Could be a turning point.
2. Scheuneman. Does the Georgia/lobbyist conflict of interest story get the attention it deserves? McCain has zero credibility in foreign affairs when his top advisor is essentially a foreign agent. Russia's dream will come true when McCain and his conflict can be used as an excuse to keep expanding territory. What's he going to do? Start a nuclear war?
3. The Conventions. The Democrats, on the surface, have the clear advantage here, with star power, enthusiasm, most likely a VP pick like Biden or Bayh, the the Clintons coming home, Mark Warner as keynote, and, of course, Obama rippin' it up. The Republicans, on the other hand, have a lackluster line-up, a lackluster nominee, potential protests from the Ron Paul people, and lots of Republican Governors and Senators not showing up. McCain really needs some pizzazz, which he is likely only to get from his VP pick-- someone like Tom Ridge.
4. Endorsements. Look out for some surprise endorsements to have an impact. Could Colin Powell or Bill & Melinda Gates step up to the plate for Obama? Where will Bloomberg go?
5. The Economy. This is probably set in stone by now. The jobs issue, the healthcare issue, the energy issue all play to Obama's strengths. However, McCain has shown adeptness in taking inconsequential issues such as offshore drilling and spinning them into major solutions. Obama's task is to lay out a clear distinction but, once again, i think he's got to be thinking about brokering the energy compromise.
6. The Wars. With wars, predatory and civil, raging all of over the planet, anything can happen. Conventional wisdom is that McCain gains the worse it gets. In Iraq, although he has argued the success of the "surge," he may actually do better if Iraq explodes, leaving Americans more worried about an inflexible timeline withdrawal. But Obama's message of alliances and diplomacy is starting to feel right to war-weary Americans.
7. The Debates. At the risk of being ageist, McCain has clearly lost a few steps in the oratory department over the last eight years. Obama should win all three debates handily.
8. Money for Battleground States. Obama will outspend McCain 2-1 in the states that matter. On the other hand, 527's will go after Obama on everything from Reverend Wright, drugs, radical liberalism, patriotism, to inexperience. A key to the race is whether Obama's team is ready in advance for this barrage with a strategy to neutralize the blows. Making it "about Obama" is McCain's only chance.
9. Registration & Turnout. The past two years have seen remarkable shifts in registration toward the Democrats. The wrong track number hovers around 80%. In part, due to the exciting Democratic party primaries, literally 10-20 million more Democratic-leaning voters may go to the polls on November 4. This is a remarkable advantage not being picked up in the current polling.
10. Battleground Strategy. Obama has a much stronger organization and a lot more money. His "larger electoral map" strategy need not render his operation thin anywhere due to these advantages. As a result, McCain will have to scramble in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. He may not be able to effectively compete in Virginia, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. Obama is either leading or within shooting distance in all 13 of these states. Obama needs to do well, but McCain needs to do super well to get to the magic 270.

Advantage: Obama.

that sounds good and everything, but what makes you think we won't 'steal' the election as we always do? whenever you guys lose, we 'stole' the election.

if you turds win this time, i will just claim you guys 'stole' the election and therefore monkey boy obama will be an illegitimate president. see how it works?

that's one of the greatest things about being both black and a democrat. there is always someone else to blame your problems and failures on.

if whitey ain't holding the black man down, the evil conservatives are holding the liberals down.

it's a mindset liberals have that comes from never taking personal responsibility for anything.

If Mr. Chang would take personal responsibility for the racist, narrow-minded, and judgmental statements he makes, the world would be a better place.

what did i say that you consider racist? are you clairvoyant or something?

Glad you cleared that up. It is clear that Obama has a superior position on everything and everyone agrees that he clearly is who should lead this country in the next 4 years.

It really is going to be interesting to see if anyone could actually be so stupid to even vote for anyone else. Maybe in November that will be where all the suspense is. When the polls close, will McCain get any votes other than from his family. With such a superior position I would think that even some in his family would vote for what is best for the country and not vote for him but I think he will get a couple of votes anyway.

I cannot wait till the convention. I think every channel will cancel all shows and show the convention commercial free. Why would they want to break away from it to make money. Things will be so much easier when there is so much less pressure to make a profit. A profit will become a corporate sin so that really will make things so much easier on corporate America.

And think about how peaceful it will be when America tells China, Russia, and any radical Islamic group that we no longer are in the business of interfering with their business and if you do not like us having a presence somewhere, just feel free to tell us and we will leave so you can be happy. Wars will end, everyone will love America, and forget about what we will save by getting out of Iraq. We can just scrap the entire military because everyone will love us.

Think about how much fun it will be to live in America. We won't have to worry about anything. Can't afford your house the govt will take care of it, health insurance got ya covered, heating or cooling bill got that covered too, want to go to school yep no problem, need some gas wait for that check to come in, Work got you down, well just let the govt take care of you. I thought retirement was a ways off but, I figure by the end of 09 there will be no need to work.

The countdown to happy time has begun and thanks to you I am sure that there is no way that anyone will not vote for Obama. I really was a bit concerned that the polls show that it was a little bit close but obviously the conservative media has doctored to results to bolster their shows so they can make money. In reality everyone wants Obama as president and may worries were over nothing.

yeah that obama fellow is smart alright. he says we can solve the energy problem with a tire gauge and a dipstick. what a guy!!

'Think about how much fun it will be to live in America. We won't have to worry about anything. Can't afford your house the govt will take care of it, health insurance got ya covered, heating or cooling bill got that covered too, want to go to school yep no problem, need some gas wait for that check to come in, Work got you down, well just let the govt take care of you. I thought retirement was a ways off but, I figure by the end of 09 there will be no need to work.'

quit being a smartass. you may not be aware, but liberal democrats are enlightened beings. they are smarter, more compassionate, and better informed than those angry, bitter conservative who cling to god and guns.

it's true. i know they are smarter than you because they keep telling anyone who will listen how smart they are.

I like Obama and I hope he wins, but I'm not as sanguine about it as John Adkisson. McCain is at his best when he's the underdog, and Obama is prone to seeming arrogant and egotistical when he thinks he's winning. See for example the New Hampshire primary, when he had an opportunity to deal Hillary Clinton a knockout punch and failed to do so.

On the specific points:

1. Energy Compromise Bill. Yes, if Obama gets credit for the Democrats compromising, it's a help to him, but let's be honest - most voters don't follow what goes on in the Senate.

2. Scheuneman. Nobody knows and nobody cares.

3. The Conventions. Democrats do have the advantage here, no argument on that point. Conventions are about speechifying, and nobody can speechify like Obama - certainly not McCain, whose oratory is wooden at best. McCain could fire his up with a clever veep pick, but he still wouldn't match the Democrats. The real question mark here is Hillary Clinton and her supporters - particularly one supporter, namely Bill. They could screw up the Democratic convention in a way no Republican could.

4. Endorsements. A minor element at best. Endorsements probably matter most on the state level, not the national one; an enthusiastic endorsement from a major state figure in a swing state could flip that state to one side or the other. The only national endorsement I could think of that would make a real difference would be if a major evangelical conservative leader endorsed Obama.

5. The Economy. Obama's biggest strength, no question. Democrats are always stronger when the economy is looking weak, and McCain is shaky even for a Republican. A good VP pick could help McCain's credentials a little here, but Obama has a clear advantage on this issue and will almost certainly retain it.

6. The Wars (which is to say, Iraq, because nobody's paying attention to Afghanistan). I'd say this is a wash. Obama had a big advantage here when it looked hopeless and everyone was looking for the exits. He still has a slight edge, perhaps, because the withdrawal timetable he laid out coincides so well with the schedule the Iraqis themselves are now putting forward and Bush is grudgingly agreeing to. Still, the improvements in Iraq mean McCain also gets credit for sticking to his guns.

7. The Debates. Obama could blow McCain out of the water here. He has the capability - when he's at the top of his game, he's a very good debater, even if he's not on Hillary Clinton's level - and he could use the debates as an opportunity to demonstrate that he's actually a perfectly reasonable guy and not some scary Black Panther-Muslim hybrid radical. The question is whether he will in fact be at the top of his game. If he comes off as egotistical and humorless, McCain will be able to play the "I'm just like you" card.

8. Money for Battleground States. This certainly favors Obama, although maybe not as much as it seems at first glance - the 527s and the national Republican Party can make up a lot of ground for McCain.

9. Registration & Turnout. This area has a lot of potential for Obama. His formidable ground game will help get Democratic voters to the polls, and black voters especially will turn out in record numbers. On the other hand, how many Hillary Clinton voters will stay home? That's a critical question.

10. Battleground Strategy. This one is a gamble. Obama is committing resources to competing in a whole lot of states. That might be a brilliant strategy to throw McCain on the defensive and hedge his bets with multiple paths to victory... or it might be a colossal waste of Obama's time and money. The success of Dean's 50-state strategy in 2006 argues for the former, but I wouldn't take it for granted.

Most of this does favor Obama... but there are a number of things that favor McCain as well:

1. McCain Has a Sense of Humor. Now, to be fair, Obama does too, but McCain's is a lot more accessible and much more often on display. It comes naturally to him, where Obama's attempts at wit in a public setting often seem forced. I think people drastically underestimate the importance of this. Humor is a vital tool for making voters feel comfortable with a candidate; humorless candidates come across as pessimistic and negative even when their message is a positive one. (Of course, McCain's sense of humor has its down side; he has been known to go way, way too far. See for example his ghastly joke about Chelsea Clinton back in the day. If he says something like that about the Obama girls...)

2. Obama Is Black. Geraldine Ferraro to the contrary, this is still a big disadvantage for Obama. It makes him seem different, alien, inaccessible. It also means that the Republicans, and the media, are on hypersensitive alert for anything that might be construed as Obama "playing the race card." And the subject of race will keep coming up despite all Obama's efforts to downplay it.

3. Campaign Narrative. Everybody knows who John McCain is. He's been in the public eye for many many years. Obama is a newcomer who exploded onto the national stage a mere four years ago. By default, therefore, McCain wins on the question, "What does this guy stand for? Who is he?" Voters know an answer with McCain. They don't with Obama. Obama could change that with a really bold proposal on a major issue, such that he would become identified with that issue. If Obama proposed a plan to make every car sold in the U.S. be fully electric by 2020, for example - zero gasoline consumption - and pushed that at every rally, that would do it. But Obama is cautious by nature and I suspect he won't do something that bold.

4. Maverick Image. Again, this is where McCain's years in the Senate work to his advantage. He's made public stands against his party on a number of issues, and independents like that (although he backed away from a lot of those stands in the Republican primary). Obama, on the other hand, doesn't have that kind of high-profile independent background. His bipartisan talk helps, but Bush talked bipartisan too.

5. The Clintons. Obama still has scars from the primary campaign. There are groups like PUMA out there. And Bill remains a very dangerous loose cannon. I don't think Hillary Clinton has a prayer of getting elected in 2012, but if the Clintons think she does...

Dausuul I think your post sounds reasonable with only a few things.

Energy - That could help but it sounds like it might not actually be much of a compromise. I think that no one has really grabbed an advantage on this issue. I think McCain has the most room to maneuver here but so far he has taken an issue where he is on the more popular side and to my view done nothing. I think at this point it is a draw and perhaps if McCain does not find a way to capitalize on this issue the compromise could be the force that closes this window for him.

Convention - In terms of crowd hysteria etc there is no doubt Obama has the edge. But I think it could work against him. I think Germany was no help and maybe hurt him. This is different but if it reinforces that he is more of a rock star than a leader of the US it might reinforce the impression of empty suit.

The specter of the Clinton's could make things interesting. I do not think that she will do anything overtly to lessen the impact that Obama might make. But her followers might be another matter. I think it will turn out to be a non issue but you never know.

Debates - I think Hillary for the most part bested Obama in the debates. I am sure he has gotten better but she was better. I do not think she actually is very good at the debates. She certainly could not come close to Bill.

I have watched McCain at a few town hall meetings and it clearly is a different person than the person you see giving speeches or on ads. He really is quite impressive in that type of medium. If he treats a debate in the same manner I think he will have an advantage.

When Obama essentially said screw off when McCain suggested a series of town hall meetings it says to me that his campaign is not so sure about his ability to dominate as the first post suggests. McCain really has a lot of experience and in that medium if he has time it is clear that he understands the issue in some detail. Your view of what he will do with this information of course is a matter for the viewer to decide.

Zero gas usage by 2020. Sounds good but I think that it is impossible. Hell we cannot even get a drop of oil out of the ground in that amount of time. Think of the ramifications if this was actually going to happen other than the no gas part.

Auto makers would have at most 6 years to convert their car production to fully electric cars. Would you buy a car in 1015 knowing in 6 years or less it would be hard to find a place to get gas or that it would not be allowed on the road in 5 years.

Our electrical infrastructure is already pretty deficient in many areas. I do not know what the number is but the amount of electrical power needed to replace gas as a power source for all cars has to be enormous.

Wind and solar are not 24/7 sources of energy. Storage is not efficient enough so how would you provide power during these down times?

You may see it as a sure way to win, I think it would only show that Obama had a plan that was overly simplistic and demonstrates his lack of understanding and experience.

The Dem's have the advantage and it really does not matter who they put up. Some of the issues you discussed are advantages for Obama beyond all the advantages that W handed to the Dem's.

McCain inherited all the disadvantages so should have no chance of winning. I think he was gifted with some issues that he should have jumped on but so far I just do not see it.

The black thing is an advantage especially with the younger voter. My kids and all their friends are the opposite of racist. They look up to people who are black. All my kids are in their 20's with one close to 30 so I suspect that the number who feel this way is a large number. There is racisms in this country but I am cruising in on 60 and I know that people of my generation felt strongly that racism had no place in this country. I believe that a woman has more resistance to being elected than an African American. He beat a lot of white men and women so I think this is a line that really rings hollow. If you look at the African American's voting with almost unanimity I think that he has gained more than he has lost. If the African American voters were equally split Obama would be out of the race. Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Florida all go to McCain. game set match.

527's Now this is something that really is a joke. Do some research on these groups. The funding of 527's is so much larger for groups that support Obama that it is funny that you would suggest that McCain has this as an advantage. Add in how much more Obama has to spend and .... well McCain better do really good with what ever ads he runs to even have a snowballs chance.

If the liberals came to realize that everything Irving stated was true, then the U.S. would return to being as great a nation as it was, pre-pc.

As Irving would say, how can you vote for a man that doesn't know how many states there are in the Union!

Great post. Great opinions (both sides).

Respectfully,

wdp

Most of your list of Obama advantages are ones he has with an already decided and dedicated Democratic base.

The people who are going to decide this election, however, are the independents, and that includes some very unhappy conservatives who are adrift and temporarily independent. Obama has losing a bit of his luster with them recently.

Item 1 - Only an advantage to Obama if the country thinks it is a good bill. "Compromise," as important and real as it is in politics, doesn't sound good. It sounds mushy. He would do a lot better to start talking about energy like Kennedy did about space. Like, right now.

Item 2 - Obama must hit very hard on this. I am concerned that Obama has been playing too nice. People don't want mean leaders, but they want to see a killer instinct, even outrage, when necessary. So far Obama hasn't taken advantage of Scheunemen enough.

Item 3 - Dems's stagecraft must play for those independent and temporarily independent voters. If it looks like a Great Society, government solutions for everything, We Are The World orgasm, its going to hurt Obama. And they should keep Michael Moore and other flame throwers locked in a cell unti its over.

Item 4 - I agree with you 100% on this. The right endorsements right now could be huge for Obama.

Item 5 - Obama's centerpiece speeches at this point forward must be about the economy, and they must be very wonkish. The soaring oratory got him where he is, but he's got to start getting very boring and Clintonian in respect to the economy right now.

Item 6 - Agreed.

Item 7 - Agreed.

Item 8 - Unfortunately, Obama has himself made the race about him rather than a referendum on Bush. This has been his campaign's biggest weakness. No doubt the historical reality of an Obama campaign makes this natural, but his dependency on big orations rather than wonky stuff and side by side policy comparisons with McCain hurts him. He should be pounding relentelessly on McCain being Bush's third term.

Item 9 - Agreed.

Item 10 - Mostly agree, but it's hard to underestimate the undercurrent of "Obama is a closet Mulsim terrorist anti-American AntiChrist" crap that has been floating through the internet, etc., and this has particularly resonated in the MidWest and Rust Belt states. For these people in particular Obama has to get down to earth with his speeches and talk about how he's going to help these guys have a better day to day life than McCain would.

Bottom Line: I still predict a squeaker, with Obama just barely making it.

"When Obama essentially said screw off when McCain suggested a series of town hall meetings it says to me that his campaign is not so sure about his ability to dominate as the first post suggests. McCain really has a lot of experience and in that medium if he has time it is clear that he understands the issue in some detail. Your view of what he will do with this information of course is a matter for the viewer to decide."

That's not how I'd describe it. McCain proposed a series of town hall meetings, which is the format McCain dominates. Obama said, basically, "We like the idea but we'll have to think about it." Later, the Obama campaign proposed Lincoln-Douglas style debates, which are essentially oratorical duels. McCain didn't bite either. Both campaigns were transparently playing to their candidates' strengths.

The interesting thing is that a modern moderated debate is somewhere in between. It's not the ideal medium for either candidate - too focused and rigorous for McCain, too unpredictable and fast-paced for Obama - but both can handle it pretty well. Based on what we saw in the primaries, I think Obama can handle it better, if he's on his game, but I may be prejudiced.

"Zero gas usage by 2020. Sounds good but I think that it is impossible. Hell we cannot even get a drop of oil out of the ground in that amount of time. Think of the ramifications if this was actually going to happen other than the no gas part."

I meant that new cars sold would have zero gas consumption (pure electric, in other words, not hybrid), not that the entire nation would have zero gas consumption. Even that would be a very aggressive target, and intentionally so - it's supposed to make people wonder if it can be done. But once we get to the point where all new cars are electric, gas consumption will eventually drop to zero on its own.

I agree that McCain was playing to his strength but if you watch one of McCain's town-hall meetings he does not only allow questions that are in praise of his position. Middleview was on TV as a friend of his was bashing McCain. He felt McCain was incensed by it but I watched it and I do not see it that way.

But it certainly is a format that questions can be asked and what I like about it is that the questions are not totally predictable and forces them to answer in ways that are not right out of their play book.

If Obama is better at a debate a town-hall meeting should have the same result. In any case I think it would have been a good thing.

Obama comes back with 1 town hall meeting on the 4th of July and then a Lincoln - Douglas debate that is just a series of speeches. I see no grounds where McCain would accept any part of this.

On the other side Obama could have agreed to 1 or two town-hall meetings and a Lincoln - Douglas style debate. Then he would have put McCain on the spot. As it was I think Obama looked like he wanted no part of a debate with McCain.

I think that pushing new forms of energy or how we use it is fine. I have no problem with having cars being fully electric by 2020. However, if that is stated there has to be some discussion of how we get from here to there. I think that acknowledging problems that would need to be resolved has to be part of it.

Like the oil drilling thing. I think drilling should be allowed and it has more positive impacts than negative. However, the Rep position is not honest. They make the leap from allow drilling to we will have more oil without any discussion of any issues that lie between both points. I think that had they discussed it more fully they would have far more support for their side. The Dem's were just as simplistic. It won't work.

Both sides pretend like the contradictions in their positions do not exist. For me it leaves me thinking WTF. A lot do not question what is being said but when you do and look into it, man saying they are being disingenuous is being kind.