The worst case scenario is, in fact, worse than either of those. The most morbid potential parallel that comes to mind is Sarajevo, circa 1914, not eighty years later (well, that too --- another day). Why Saakashvili decided to invade South Ossetia when he did will remain a great mystery, something to be investigated and described in archival research for generations to come. There have been "provocations" ongoing for some time, for months, years in fact, on both sides. Georgia has been armed by the US in recent years and perhaps Saakashvili thought Bush would back him, as Kaplan suggests. Or maybe he's just a rather corrupt tribalist desperado trying to reverse a slide into political irrelevance.

There's no real reason for the Russians to want to occupy or dismember Georgia. Up until hours before the current crisis <link> both Georgian and Russian sides were expressing an active interest in bringing negotiations to a successful conclusion. At every step of the narrative of the catastrophe, the Russians have plausiby protested their desire merely to protect the population of the South Ossetia autonomous region. As of this moment, it seems indisputable that the Russian Army, despite its 'monstrous' superiority in numbers and firepower, has killed far fewer civilians than their Georgian counterparts. Yet Western media refuse to even look into numerous allegations of atrocities against innocent bystanders on the part of Saakashvili's troops.

Meanwhile, Georgian authorities continue to whip up hysterical fears. A column of tanks belonging to the Georgian military were portrayed by media around the world as evidence of Russia's intention to capture Gori, or even Tbilisi itself. Western reporters in that town, however, could find no evidence of such a move by Russian forces <link>. No independent verification has been provided, meanwhile, for various other reports that three or four Georgian cities outside the "zone of conflict" have been attacked or even occupied by the Russians.

Saakashvili is a fine showman and certainly knows how to dive for cover with panache <link>, although he has hardly done much to make his country a showplace for democracy and prosperity.

The most plausible scenario is the one that corresponds to the facts as we know them with some certainty. Russia, in the wake of Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence has been planning a bit of revanche within its own sphere of influence, intending to bring about some sort of "liberation" for Russian speaking areas just across the current borders of the Rodina. But they hadn't necessarily planned on Saakashvili's handing them a valid pretext to put Georgia in its place, disarming its ability to threaten the South Ossetians and the Abhazians to boot.

The Russians looked, if anything, unprepared for the events that unfolded on Friday morning. Georgia's military move against Ossetian "provocateurs" was ruthless and bloody. One can only imagine that Moscow was forced to move for precisely the reasons they have since propounded in every international forum that has taken up the crises: confronted with hundreds, if not thousands, of dead Ossetians, they were shocked by the prospect of ethnic cleansing and pushed by nationalists in their midst to stop it. The crucial moment in the whole narrative was surely the widely broadcast message from a bombed-out cellar in Tskhinvali from an Ossetian family to friends in Moscow early Friday, in which they plaintively shamed their compatriots -- [in close paraphrase] --- "we do not feel like the citizens of a great power when we are being slaughtered by our enemies."

The West's job now is not to get caught up in the waves of hysterical indignation and nationalist theatrics, or worse, to allow itself to be drawn into a geo-political melodrama that could easily spin out of control, with President Saakashvili playing the role of a latter day, and very faux, Archduke Ferdinand. The Russians will withdraw once they have secured their interests and those of their protégés in the two "breakaway" republics.

And if the West wants to "save" Georgia, it would do well to support a "regime change" in that country that would lead to real democracy, real transparency, real freedom and prosperity, that is, to deny itself the superficial and fatal -- to innocent bystanders -- satisfaction of allowing a dubious marionette to hold power in Tbilisi for the sole purpose of bloody-mindedly antagonizing Moscow.

So another "US ally" discover that the true worth of 'US Support'. Remember the Shia uprising against Saddam post Dessert Storm? It's the geopolitic equivalence of the infamous 'Nigerian Scam'.

Making life miserable for the Russian has become the official US policy, often without regard to geopolitical implications. The US have landed a lot of sucker punches on Russia : abolishing the ABM treaty, Kosovo independence, the radar in Poland, the US influence in Ukraine and Georgia, the list goes on. Russia on the other hand retaliates by sending nuclear material to Iran and North Korea. During the Cold War, these kind of issues are used as bargaining chips in negotiations. The current US administration is too macho to believe in 'negotiation', so pissing off the Russians become a mean in itself.

I would have thought that 'Kosovo independence' would be a bargain compared to Iran with nukes.

The fate of Georgia have very little effect on US national interest, it was just a convenient way to rub salt in Russia's wounds. Georgia will never join NATO : Europe doesn't want it, and the Russians won't allow it. It'll be similar to the US allowing China to base 100,000 members of the PLA in Canada. When national security gets into the picture, it cease to become a game. The Georgian miscalculated badly : they believed that they could close down the Roki tunnel before Putin can get back from the Olympics. The ploy failed, and now they discover that war is not something that you can just start and stop on a wimp.

The Russian already hinted at what will stop their aggression : Saakashvili has to resign. They won't occupy Georgia, but they will extract their 'pound of flesh'. How far the Russian will go will depend on how long the Georgians continue to resist. The fastest way to resolve the conflict is for Saakashivili to resign and surrender himself to be tried as a war criminal for ordering the killing of the South Ossetians civilians. The alternative would be a lot of human suffering all due to some very bad military advice.

I'm not optimistic though.