Kaplan is a bit more fatalistic than usual in his assesment here. While I agree that all the tough talk coming from the administration has done nothing other than psych up Georgia into an overconfident pose (which lead them to touch off this bonfire), the situation is too serious to throw your hands in the air and give up.

On the one hand, he is right that lots of conservatives will cry appeasement, and offer no good plans of their own. Much like when talking about Iran, conservatives are likely to say that this or that is "unallowable" and "must not go unanswered"and leave it to the listener to ponder whether or not that means war (because its not like they're suggesting anything else.)

What we should actually do is cut a short term behind-the-scenes deal to give ossetia and abhekazia independence (i.e. Russian control), and give an ultimatum that the government of Georgia must remain intact. As soon as the ceasefire is in effect, we should put peacekeepers and a moderate contingent of US forces into Georgia temporarily, while rebuilding and rearming Georgia. This is something that we can, in fact, get Europe to agree to and help foot the bill.

Forget the insignifcant little provinces. Georgia matters, so focus on keeping that beachhead intact.

There is no way that the Russians would accept a political solution that includes US troops stationed in Georgia.

What kind of ultimatum the US can give now? Economic sanction? That won't work because Russia is in the driving seat as it supplies energy to Western Europe. War? Where can the USA find the troops? Georgia matters, but not that much, unless you still subscribe to the plan to ring Russia with nakedly anti-Russian republics.

The only working scenario is: the Georgians make it a good fight, bogging down the Russians, and then get peace. at the negotiating table.

I think token forces from NATO, including US troops, could be moved in as a show of commitment. They wouldn't be there to actually defend against Russia, but to be both symbolic and act as "tripwire" forces, (like in S. Korea) which would deter Russia from invading Georgia proper.

Maybe it doesn't need to be troops, but there has to be some type of unit that NATO can move on this chessboard.